Your chances are not that good. That leaves you with 2 choices. You can run at 3:15 pace and then if you have anything left you can go for it in the last 3-4 miles. You will get a good time that way but you will not get a 3:10. Your second option is to go out at 3:10 pace and take a gamble. Maybe 20% chance of holding on for the 3:10 (just a guess, but it is way less than 50%). Perhaps you get lucky. More likely you hit the wall, die, maybe walk, and have a pretty bad experience.
I have tried both options. When I "went for it" I hit the wall at mile 21 and it was pretty awful. When I ran conservatively, I was passing people and feeling strong in the last 10k. With similar fitness, I ran about 1.5 mins faster with the "fly and die" strategy, but with the kind of splits that make you look and feel like kind of an idiot. My memory of the well paced race was crushing opponents in the last 10k. My main memory of the faster race was one of being miserable.