First, I like the analogy. Athiests and the devout. I'm going to keep going with it to make a point: I am frustrated when fans think the point of the sport is faith, in the same way I am frustrated when zealots think the point of religion is faith. The point of religion is to be a good person. The point of sport is to measure fitness, tactics, hard work and talent. Thinking that the point of sports is to have faith as a fan are doing a disservice to those ends. (I'm not going to reply to any comment on the analogy. Its not perfect)
For starters, distance runners would first dope with EPO. A full dose has a detection window of about two days. Micro dosing even less. Before out of conpetition testing, you could dope thuroughly in the off season, and stop before compeition.
Concievably, OOC testing makes that riskier. Further, the use if the BioPassport should indicate when an athlete cycles on and off.
But, especially in east Africa, statistics have shown very limited OOC blood testing. The BP relies on frequent blood tests to give a thurough image. While there are more urine tests occuring, mapping out the odds of a single East African athlete being tested are very low.
Now, anecdotally, training camps in the past are rumored to have some advanced warning. Places like Mt. Tiede are hard to get to, so when a WADA tester shows up, people start adjusting. Further, there is no lab yet set up in East Africa, making the whole process more involved, and a little less subtle.
Further, the procedure for detecting BP violations is obnoxious. A computer model decides when an athlete is outside of normal. Not a person. The athlete is then asked to explain the abnormal result: altitude, sickness, whatever. A panel of three ALL must agree then to pursue a case. After that, they look at competition history, performance levels, and otherfactors. They may order more testing. ONLY then can thy claim a violation.
In this model, a few problems. Setting a baseline matters: athletes at altitude will have different parameters, and thus more leeway. Next, the explanation. Coming and going from altitude changes things. Weight gain. Pregnancy. And you have to convine just ONE of the three, and they cannot make a case. Next, even if they follow up, go off the cycle. You've been warned your numbers are flagged. Go get hurt, so your performance drops, while OOC tests show you're clean.
To illustrate the point, those leaked 2007 blood samples? How many were flagged? THAT's the bests indiator of who was doping. Experts even said that a red level was almost certain blood manipulation.
Ignoring these circumstances make it seem like anti doping works. It doesnt. There are holes in the system, which are exploited. And ignoring what is right under our face, without a little bit of skepticism, only supports the facade.