HRE,
I am ashamed and disappointed in your position. The moral equivocation that I'm reading from you and a few others posters here help me to understand a bit more why cheating in sports has become so widespread and acceptable.
The question is not whether a kid should be appreciative to the college or should just be concerned about the school, its about honesty and misleading young trusting athletes. Do I really need to say that to tell a student that you are staying when you are not is simply wrong. Yes there are disadvantages to the college to do so. That's not relevant to ethics though is it?
But I go further, if you explain your coaching and lead the kid to think that that this is the coaching program he will have, but you know you will be gone, you are committing a moral lapse of omission. You should ALWAYS BE CLEAR WITH THE STUDENT THAT YOU MAY OR MAY NOT BE THERE the following year.
You can't pretend to be guiding and advising this young person while at the same time you are misleading them.
C