I went to large, diverse (relatively) junior and senior high schools. In 7th grade, on the first day of class, 250 of us 7th graders (half the number of 7th graders) ran a timed 600m on grass. I won. Easily. The winner of the of the other section was the only guy who had a faster time than I. In 9th grade he and I were the best distance runners on the track team - he broke 5 and I ran around 5:10. I write this to make the point that, though I'm not talented by LR standards, there is every indication that I am pretty talented compared to the general population.
I did break 2:30, but it took 8 years of high mileage and an almost total focus on running fast in my early and mid twenties to do it. And I didn't break it by much and I only did it once.
The other kid from my junior high ended up running DI XC and track. He managed to run a 51 minute 10 miler at one point, so, he probably could have run a sub 2:30, but he could never stay healthy long enough to get the proper training in. The XC 'record' holder at my HS, who graduated 4 years before me ran 15:04 in HS and also only broke 2:30 by a bit after training for it for years after college.
I know that the plural of anecdote is not data, but based on my own experience and what I know about running there is no way that an 'average' healthy male could break 2:30. No way.
Think about this: Could your average hs male classmate ever beat the best femaie runner on your hs XC team? Then think about how many american women have managed to dip below 2:30.
It takes either a exceptional talent (like one in 10,000) or well above average talent (still probably one in 100) and fanatical dedication to run that fast.