TCU and Baylor out! Ohio State in!

I'll take the over on the incarnate word game

Thank you for the list of OOC games on Baylor's schedule. I felt that TCU's schedule was a big cop out, but now that I see Baylor's schedule, it makes me angry what these Big 12 teams tried to get away with. They deserve to have been left out of the final 4, and to be left out until they start scheduling some reasonable OOC games. .

Whiny Winy wrote:

Thank you for the list of OOC games on Baylor's schedule. I felt that TCU's schedule was a big cop out, but now that I see Baylor's schedule, it makes me angry what these Big 12 teams tried to get away with. They deserve to have been left out of the final 4, and to be left out until they start scheduling some reasonable OOC games. .

I don't think anyone has said Baylor should be in the conversation. But OOC schedule compared to who? TCU played and beat 8-4 Minnesota badly. That's really the only basis of comparison between the two conferences. Well and 2-10 ISU's win over Iowa. Who did TOSU play OOC? Oh, that's right, 6-6 Va Tech. A game they lost. Injuries are part of the game.

Remember, Minn played in a much "better" conference that Va. Tech.

This is misleading for several reasons.

Schedules are not secure more than 3 years out so just look at 2015, 2016, and 2017. The sources for information more than 3 years out are very scketchy and the information may not be reliable:

ALL Power 5 FBS schools play a lot of easy OOC games. It's extremely rare when a school doesn't do this like FSU this year (Notre Dame, Florida, and Oklahoma St). Please list all the schools from the Power 5 conferences that don't play 2 or 3 easy OOC games (mid-major FBS schools or FCS schools). FSU was truly the exception this year only playing one such easy game (Citadel).

Also, the Big 10 and SEC only play 8 conference games, not 9 like the Big 12. So the SEC and Big 10 play 4 OOC games. When they play a decent OOC game (say, Alabama playing West Virginia, or Michigan St playing Oregon), that just makes up for the lack of an extra conference game that the Big 12 plays. If an SEC or Big 10 school plays a decent OOC game, they still have 3 easy OOC games, just like Baylor and the rest of the Big 12 teams.

Now for an important but unnoticed fact. When Alabama does play a decent OOC team, they avoid playing on the road. No home and away series with OOC schools. They play at neutral sites.

2012 - Michigan in Arlington, TX at Cowboys Stadium

2013 - Virginia Tech in Atlanta, GA at the Georgia Dome

2014 - West Virginia in Atlanta, GA at the Georgia Dome

2015 - Wisconsin in Arlington, TX at Cowboys Stadium

2016 - USC in Arlington, TX at Cowboys Stadium

Nick Saban likes to make it look like he plays a tough schedule, but he manipulates the situation into his favor by avoiding road games for tough OOC opponents.

Huh? Everyone except you thinks Baylor should at least be in the conversion. Their non-conference schedule is a joke, but they did beat TCU, Kansas State, Oklahoma (by a lot) in Norman and Iowa State who beat Iowa as you keep pointing out.

The committee had them 5th, ahead of TCU, so trust me that you are the only person that doesn't think Baylor should have at least be considered.

Hard to argue that TCU should be in, but Baylor isn't even worth talking about since they are in the same conference, have the same record, and, wait, what's the third thing? Oops, having a Rick Perry moment here...

...

Oh yeah, also, considering they beat TCU in a head-to-head match-up. Yeah, that was the third thing.

All said and done though, I think the committee made the right call. If Baylor had beaten one respectable non-conference opponent (and if the Big 12 Commish didn't screw them over) they would probably be in the playoff ahead of OSU. Wouldn't even have to have been an elite team, maybe somebody like UCLA or Clemson.

Because Ohio State didn't have a great non-conference schedule either but Cincinnati, Navy and V-Tech are all several orders of magnitude better than the best team that Baylor played out of conference.

No one is talking about Alabama's schedule, fool. Though if you wanted to compare the SOS between Alabama and Baylor (and these formulas take into account home vs away vs neutral site) then you would come up on the very, very short end of the stick my friend.

Plus everyone in the playoff played 9 conference games, don't forget about the championship games, fool. Actually, Oregon played 10 conference games and still fit in Michigan State out of conference.

Everyone else in the Big 12 seems to be able to work in a Power 5 conference team, yet Baylor should be given a pass for FCS, Buffalo and SMU? Oklahoma State played Florida State, Texas played UCLA (and BYU, which not Power 5 technically, but better than have of them), Oklahoma played Tennessee, Texas Tech played Arkansas, Kansas State played Auburn, TCU played Minnesota, Iowa State played Iowa, etc etc.

Also, in 2017 or so, the Big Ten will be going to a 9 game conference schedule. Most of the ACC and SEC schools play one another out of conference.

Baylor is a huge outlier as far as scheduling goes.

First, I can talk about Alabama if I want to, fool. It was an additional note at the end of my post to show that Alabama manipulates the situation to play one decent OOC game, but never on the road, fool. Michigan St and Oregon play a home and away series like most other schools do when they play among the Power 5 conferences, fool.

Second, Baylor, TCU, and the rest of the Big 12 don't have the option to play a conference title game right now, fool. The NCAA mandates that only conferences with 12 or more teams can have said game, fool. So the lack of a conference title game is not the fault of any team in the Big 12, fool.

Third, you completely missed the point about the SEC and Big 10 schools mostly play 3 easy OOC games, fool. Of course, the Pac 12 plays fewer easy OOC games since they have more conference games, fool, and for that reason, I didn't mention the Pac 12 since it is the outlier among the Power 5 conferences in that regard, fool. All the Big 10 schools played 3 easy OOC games except Michigan and Northwestern, fool. All the SEC teams played 3 easy OOC games, except Georgia, fool. Baylor had just as many easy OOC games as the SEC or Big 12 teams, fool.

Where the final four played their regular games (excluding conference championship):

Alabama: 12 games, 7 @home, 1 @neutral field (West Virginia), 3 @someone else's home (all SEC teams).

Oregon: 12 games, 7 @home, 5 @someone else's home (all PAC-12 teams).

Florida: 12 games, 8 @home, 1 @neutral field (Oklahoma St), 4 @someone else's home (OCC and ACC).

Ohio St.: 12 games, 7 @home, 5 @someone else's home (OCC and Big 10).

---- Not one single team played six away games. Alabama got away with only three away games, all against SEC schools.

At last. Someone else gets it.

Only twice (2011, 2010) in the past 10 seasons has Alabama played more than 4 games AT someone else's home field as a true away game. And that trend won't change in the next 3 years with Alabama playing tougher OOC games only on neutral sites, not as a home and away series.

Minor corrections.

Florida State, not Florida.

Alabama played 4 true road games this season (Ole Miss, Arkansas, Tennessee, LSU) and 1 neutral site game (West Virginia).

You guys are so right. It is a lot harder to play Buffalo in a true road game rather than West Virginia or Wisconsin at a neutral site.

Everyone should schedule like Baylor.

"And that trend won't change in the next 3 years with Alabama playing tougher OOC games only on neutral sites, not as a home and away series."

This is part of the magic formula worked by the SEC's benefactor: the E$PN. Less traveling means less wear on athletes. More at home games means less wear on athletes.

John Henry wrote:

You guys are so right. It is a lot harder to play Buffalo in a true road game rather than West Virginia or Wisconsin at a neutral site.

Everyone should schedule like Baylor.

Thanks for missing the point entirely. Alabama is avoiding ever playing a decent OOC team on the road at their stadium. Alabama is avoiding home and away series. For example, Oregon and Michigan State is a 2 year home and away series. FSU and Florida is home or away every year. Same with South Carolina and Clemson. Same with Kentucky and Louisville. Same with Georgia and Georgia Tech. Even Tennessee has home and away series with teams like Oregon and Oklahoma. Nick Saban knows he has to play at least one legit OOC game or else he gets heavily criticized for only playing cupcakes. So he minimizes the risk of losing that game by never playing it on the turf of the other team.

No, you missed the point entirely. The point is that Baylor's scheduling is among the weakest in all of the Power 5. Neutral site games against good teams are way tougher than an away game at Buffalo.

And here's the other side of the Alabama coin:

let's say they play Michigan-West Virginia-Wisconsin at neutral sites in successive years. sure, they don't have to play at any of their opponents' stadiums, but they don't get any of those teams at their home stadium either. Atlanta, Dallas, wherever, it's still a plane trip, hotel stay, etc. I'm surprised that local business in Tuscaloosa don't protest this more (they probably fear Saban though), but with Alabama's current neutral site big game scheduling philosophy, their town takes a big hit every other year with the lost big game at home.

"No, you missed the point entirely. The point is that Baylor's scheduling is among the weakest in all of the Power 5. Neutral site games against good teams are way tougher than an away game at Buffalo."

Ummm, no.

1) Go check where the SEC neutral site games are held: a one-day vanpool drive for SEC fans; a flight and overnight stay for the other team.

2) SOS based on bogus ranking is, well, bogus at best.

Henry John wrote:

1) Go check where the SEC neutral site games are held: a one-day vanpool drive for SEC fans; a flight and overnight stay for the other team.

2) SOS based on bogus ranking is, well, bogus at best.

Yeah, so Michigan's flight time is a whole extra hour to Dallas than Alabama's was. The crowd at that game, which I attended, by the way, was not heavily pro-Alabama. There were a lot of Michigan people there and a lot of Metroplex residents (like myself) who weren't actually fans of either team. A fair number of Texas fans were there, and they rooted for Michigan if anyone. It was nothing like an Alabama home game would have been.

SOS is not based on rankings, smart guy. It is based on opponents' records and opponents' opponents' records. It also factors in if it is a home game or not, even if it is a neutral site game.

If you want to cry about something, then there is the fact that Arkansas used to play "away" games in Little Rock against teams like Univ of Louisiana-Monroe. These games would be held in a stadium that Arkansas has used for 2-3 home games every year (now they just play one home game there). It counted as an away game for Arkansas even though tickets could be included in Razorback season ticket bundles. Also, UL-M got to count the attendance for their records, which is a big deal for the small FBS teams because to remain FBS there is a minimum attendance requirement. Without these fake home games, some schools would not meet quota.

Other schools have done the same thing as well. Most of the better SOS systems closed this loophole though and, in the example above, would not give Arkansas credit for a road win any more.

Bingo. This SOS stuff is just so confusing. These rankings aren't perfect but they're pretty thorough. You can't include the team with three losses, as good as they may be, and you can't deny the undefeated, defending national champion, as overrated as they may be. Nobody has mentioned Oregon, but, interestingly, they'd be eliminated using the Golden Mean or Predictor, though I don't put much stock in running up the score on a mediocre opponent.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

My semi-final based on SOS and W-L record would be 'Bama-FSU and TCU-Oregon. Ohio State might be great, but recent history suggests they, along with Notre Dame, are perennially overrated.

"You can't include the team with three losses, as good as they may be..."

And yet, ESPN saw fit to rank, a few weeks ago, then five-loss Arkansas 25th in their Power Rankings based on shutouts of two teams which have high SOSes: LSU and Ole Miss.

Sagarin's final "puter crankings" ranks Arkansas #13.

The #1-7 schedule ranks all belong to SEC schools, according to Sagarin.

10-3 Missouri which beat 6-6 Arkansas is tanked #16, three places behind the team they beat, according to Sagarin.