What Kind of Times Indicate Sub 3 is a Realistic Marathon Goal?

Reg Fields wrote:

I finally broke 3 yesterday (2:57). I'd say a few indicators are a 1:22-1:24HM with 65-75 MPW during the training cycle. I'd also strongly encourage 3x 20 milers in the training cycle and one 23-24 miler. Also I'd encourage several mid week intermediate runs of 14-15 miles with the last 10@ MP. Best of luck!

But I think you need to be in 2:55 shape or better in order to accomplish your first sub 3.

...and little things like getting to the line with few if any niggling aches and pains (& the shoes you meant to bring not the ones you bought yesterday because...)

8 seconds man!?!?!

congrats on the 5 minute pr, but damn, weren't you checking your watch that last mile? I was in the same position my 2nd marathon attempt and came up on the .2 mark to go at 2:58:30 on the nose on the old timex. Damn sure I busted a move to make sure I didn't near miss.

Dropped my arms, started pumping furiously and closed my eyes (must have looked REAL stupid) but I got under.

Feel for you man. Again, nice work on the pr. Where you thinking for spring marathon?

Hi,

Seeing as I haven't done a real post-mortem yet, this is a good exercise.

First... Thanks!

In general:

more mileage never hurts. Peaking at 75, averaging 60ish allowed me to feel good through 22. More helps always. I would also do LT work totaling 9 miles instead of 6 once a week. I would continue with no VO2 workouts besides a yasso and 400 session. I would however do more mixed tempos. Ten days out I tried a new concept of 4 at MP and 4 at HMP. Its a good mental exercise.

In the race itself:

Dont take fluid you never had before. I was cramping at 21 maybe bc i took gaterade a few times by mistake and not water. Also, in a similar vein, id have less gel. I felt sick at my fifth one at 20 and waited until 23 to have it and blew off my last one accordingly. I would also avoid being anywhere near water stops in races. Too many people just stop and trip you up like idiots. I prefer smaller races like 2 to 5 thousand. I also would have gone out a hair faster at the half and not dialed back a few 6:39 miles around 10 with an evening out 7 flat following it.

Excited for the next one and taking a stab at 2:55 to 2:57?

I know right?!

Yes to a spring marathon, with a larger goal obviously. 2:55? Maybe Vermont.

Last 6 miles were 6:50, 6:51, 7:00, 7:06, 7:04, 7:02 with the final .1 at 40 seconds. Can't say I wasn't checking like hell at the end nor going down with a fight. I was like come on! There is a hill at 25 or 26 I can't remember which.

+1

Thanks everyone for the great post! I hope it keeps going....

Your times are right around mine. If you can dial in nutrition and keep a good pace you should be right at 3 hours.

It might take you a couple tries, it might not. My times are about a minute faster but I've bonked in each marathon I've done and ended up in the 3:20s. I've also raced all the other distances countless times and only attempted the marathon 4 times so there's that.

I thought it might be interesting to bring this up again one year (where does the time go?) later.

I am the original poster.

Since this was started I've improved my PRs to 38:57 (10K) and 64:05 (ten miler) about eight weeks after the 3:00:08. I just ran a 1:24:50 half yesterday. I have another marathon in three weeks on a fast course (net downhill of about 250 ft).

Here goes nothing!

Good luck!

Thanks for posting updates, too. It's always nice to know how these situations pan out.

Good luck!

I'm hoping to get to your level early next year. My current PRs are 1:28-low and 19:03 for 5k. (I haven't raced a 10k for a while, but I have an old PR of 40:45). I'm only on about 40 mpw, though, so I'm hoping with a bump to 50-55 I can start getting down to the 1:25 range for the half, and, eventually, sub-3.

Good luck to you too!

The biggest change I made this time was:

- I ran more (duh haha) 50 - 60 became 60 - 70 every week

- I raced less (just once instead of three times, I'll get my fun bunches of races right after this)

- longer repeats 3 and 4 mile repeats at around half pace with a few more miles added in to warm up and cool down

- only doing one long run and one workout (instead of two workouts) as the weeks quality days

maybe this helps a little?

i think you're a little over, but not much. the 40:10 should be about a tempo run, not a 10k race, but you mentioned it was during your half marathon so that explains it.

if you can get down to 64:00-64:30 for 10 miles and 1:23:30-1:24:00 for the half i think you're right in line. also depends a lot on your training.

fall marathon wrote:

Good luck to you too!

The biggest change I made this time was:

- I ran more (duh haha) 50 - 60 became 60 - 70 every week

- I raced less (just once instead of three times, I'll get my fun bunches of races right after this)

- longer repeats 3 and 4 mile repeats at around half pace with a few more miles added in to warm up and cool down

- only doing one long run and one workout (instead of two workouts) as the weeks quality days

maybe this helps a little?

Well, I don't race too much, and I only do one long run and one workout each week. But I haven't put in the "big" miles yet. I think the bottom line is that I just need to run more (duh, as you said). Gotta carve out the time.

Not sure what you mean by 3 and 4 mile repeats... like "1-mile repeats" x 3 or 4? Or 3-4 mile repeats... like tempo runs? I do both, but probably 3-4 mile tempos a lot more frequently than 1-mile repeats.

Sorry to unclear!

2 x 3 or 4 miles with maybe a half mile jog in between

4 x 2 miles etc

I also really like 8 to 10 mile tempos. Sometimes just all at mp. Other times the first half at mp and the second half whatever youve got. It teaches me patience then gutting it out.

I just decided to attempt a sub 3 hour marathon in November since I have been running well this summer. I've run 18:40, 38:45, and 64:20 ten mile. I have two half marathons scheduled in the next 3 weeks. My downside is running 35 mpw for the last 6 months. I'll only be able to get one run over 13 miles a couple weeks before the marathon which will probably just be a two hour run. I ran some ultras last year but my worry will be muscles cramping up later in the race.

Charlie Stache wrote:

i think you're a little over, but not much. the 40:10 should be about a tempo run, not a 10k race, but you mentioned it was during your half marathon so that explains it.

if you can get down to 64:00-64:30 for 10 miles and 1:23:30-1:24:00 for the half i think you're right in line. also depends a lot on your training.

The 10k is irrelevant en route.

I'm really interested in this thread. I did 1:24 for the half and could not imagine going even 30 seconds slower per mile over twice the distance. Let me know how it goes.

Good luck.

similar goals wrote:

Charlie Stache wrote:

i think you're a little over, but not much. the 40:10 should be about a tempo run, not a 10k race, but you mentioned it was during your half marathon so that explains it.

if you can get down to 64:00-64:30 for 10 miles and 1:23:30-1:24:00 for the half i think you're right in line. also depends a lot on your training.

The 10k is irrelevant en route.

I'm really interested in this thread. I did 1:24 for the half and could not imagine going even 30 seconds slower per mile over twice the distance. Let me know how it goes.

Good luck.

Not sure about the 1:24. I think you need 1:22 like others said unless the 1:24 is taking it easy. Like I said. 1:24 was a huge effort and no way that correlates.

Since you asked...

I ran 3:02. I went through the half a a few secs under 1:30 and held 6:52 pace through 22 miles. I sorta bonked then with 7:20s I think.

My best is 3:00:08. I need to do 20s instead of 18s as long runs and go somewhere with competion. I ran alone for the last 6.

similar goals wrote:

similar goals wrote:

The 10k is irrelevant en route.

I'm really interested in this thread. I did 1:24 for the half and could not imagine going even 30 seconds slower per mile over twice the distance. Let me know how it goes.

Good luck.

Not sure about the 1:24. I think you need 1:22 like others said unless the 1:24 is taking it easy. Like I said. 1:24 was a huge effort and no way that correlates.

My fastest half is a few seconds under 1:27 and my marathon PR is 2:57. You don't need a 1:22 to break 3 hours unless you're running low mileage and/or have no endurance.