Do I have any chance of running a sub-3 marathon in 10 weeks time?

Agree with the poster above who said it's ultimately inevitable but may be a year early.

You're close and I couldn't argue if you decide to go for it but it could end badly over the last 6-8 miles. I think a solid 3:05 would be a good goal and give you success to build on and get the bad taste of the last one out of your system.

What?? This whole post is confusing. My coach has not said to do any of that. Going through half in 1.35 would not take a miracle. I am sure I could reach 20 miles at sub 3 pace, it's after then that the problem begins.

Here are my splits from last years marathon.

10k: 45.29

HM: 1.34.08

20m: 2.23.48

M: 3.15.29

I started to slow at about 22 miles and suffered constant hamstring cramps from mile 24 on.

What the last poster is saying is that you don't have the discipline to go through the half at 1:35...it would be a miracle if go out that slow...

Reg Fields wrote:

optimistic doubter wrote:

What?? This whole post is confusing. My coach has not said to do any of that. Going through half in 1.35 would not take a miracle. I am sure I could reach 20 miles at sub 3 pace, it's after then that the problem begins.

Here are my splits from last years marathon.

10k: 45.29

HM: 1.34.08

20m: 2.23.48

M: 3.15.29

I started to slow at about 22 miles and suffered constant hamstring cramps from mile 24 on.

What the last poster is saying is that you don't have the discipline to go through the half at 1:35...it would be a miracle if go out that slow...

Ah ok, He is more than likely right but these doubts could change that too.

Honestly if I were you I'd run with the 3:05 pace group and if you are still feeling good at like mile 22 then pick it up. Sure you won't break 3 but there's a much better chance of having an enjoyable/successful race this way. As a wise man once told me, keep chipping away at the time you want to eventually hit.

optimistic doubter wrote:

Going through half in 1.35 would not take a miracle. I am sure I could reach 20 miles at sub 3 pace, it's after then that the problem begins.

Here are my splits from last years marathon.

10k: 45.29

HM: 1.34.08

20m: 2.23.48

M: 3.15.29

I started to slow at about 22 miles and suffered constant hamstring cramps from mile 24 on.

I think you should aim for 3:05. This would still be a BQ and big PR, and it's more realistic based on everything you've said.

I think your mileage is too low to avoid the same problems you had last year - 1:28/3:15 is an indication you weren't well trained for the full marathon, and that often means not enough mileage.

I also agree with the poster who said you need more goal marathon pace work, preferably 100% goal MP at the end of long runs rather than 80-95% you mentioned. Good luck.

I think a lot of posters are being over-critical of the OP's first marathon. From what I have read, it looks like the OP was chronically overtrained going into it. A positive split of six minutes for a new runner in their first marathon is impressive in my book. It shows me they had the strength of character to push through the pain on their first try and did not totally bomb like most first timers.

The OP's half PB of 1:28 was stronger than their eventual marathon time but only a very rare few will run a first marathon which stands up to their half PB. Looking at the OP's limited information on their workouts, it looks like they're on the verge of a substantial breakthrough.

More marathon pace work will be needed and a small increase in mileage will give them a very good shot at sub 3. Maybe an increase of 10 miles and finishing those long run at MP instead of 90 to 95%. The extra effort needed will not be much. The OP is still a long way out.

Good luck!

I agree. 3.05 would be good time for you. It's a safer option for you right now. Get some experience in this time and you will definitely be in a good position for a sub 3 in spring or your next marathon.

Training has been going good for the last few weeks. I have taken on the advice on MP. Here is what I done last week.

Mon- 10 miles

Tue- 12 miles, 5x3k with 3 minutes of recovery. (11.57 per rep)

Wed- 10 miles

Thu- 6 miles, 8x800 with 2 minutes of recovery. (2.55 per rep)

Fri- Rest

Sat- 8 miles

Sun- 21 miles. 15 at 7.58, 6 at MP. Glycogen depleted run. I took on energy drinks every 3 miles from 12 miles on.

Total- 67 miles

I have a half marathon in two weeks and I am aiming for a sub-1.25. What does everyone think of my chances and the direction of my training?

Short answer: No

long answer: Probably not

I don't agree with your logic, but 50% is close when estimating PR marathon time.

A 3 hour marathon is equivalent to a 1:25:56 half and his or her half PR is 1:26:21.

Unless they get faster at the half, odds are against them.

optimistic doubter wrote:

Sun- 21 miles. 15 at 7.58, 6 at MP. Glycogen depleted run. I took on energy drinks every 3 miles from 12 miles on.

Why are you taking energy drinks during a Glycogen depleted run? That kind of defeats the purpose.

I know you are getting close to race day but I would suggest cutting down the mileage of your long run and focus on the MP. I would rather you do 18 total with 12 - 14 miles at MP. That is much better preparation for the marathon. An occasional 20+ is OK but should not be the 'go to' long run.

I think you will hit 1:25 for the half.

Let us know.

There is a lot of good advice here. I do not claim to be an expert, but I would probably shoot for 3:05--and I would be thrilled with that. My point of view is based mostly on what I have learned in the last few months of training: discipline. I am just starting to become disciplined. Those who mention this here are absolutely right. The longer distances are all about discipline. Even a shorter race takes some disciple. Last week I ran my best 4-miler ever. Why? I was disciplined. Sure, I wanted to charge ahead, but it was a hot day and I stayed with a couple of runners at a swift, manageable pace. At about two miles, I felt good, and then made my move. I had plenty of energy and ended up passing a number of runners toward the end--instead of them passing me--on my way to a negative split and a 4 mile PR (by 47 seconds).

As someone has already noted, 1:35 at the half point would seem perfect. From then on, you can get into a nice "zone." I have never raced a full. Just yesterday, I was knocking on the door 1:38 (1:39:02) in a 15 mile training run. Thus, I understand your desire to accomplish your goal. We sense that we are close to something, and want to "get there." I wish you all the best, and hope you do get there. No shame in a 3:05 or 3:07.

Just to be clear, I was 1:39:02 at my half split, not at 15 miles.

It's been a while since I updated this thread. I am now 22 days out from the marathon. I done a half last week in 1.24:35. I have added a lot more MP work to my long runs. Usually the last 5-6 @ MP. One long run with 13 @MP. Averaging about 60 mpw for the last 8weeks.

Tomorrow is the start of my taper:).

I wish that were true. My chances of breaking the world record for the marathon would be much better.

Over 2:02:57 or under, 50% chance!. If i run 5 or so marathons I'm almost certain to get it. I can see the headlines now: "Old guy with oddly high body fat for a marathoner sets new world record while training half as much as the competition."

Sounds like you are doing well. I wouldn't taper much though...considering you're only at 60mpw now. Good luck...

I think you're close, and race day conditions will make or break you. I agree that starting with 60 mpw you don't want to taper much. But my main advice: realize you're close. If race morning it's 65+ and humid, have the brains to swallow your pride and go for Goal B (maybe 3:05-3:15, depending on the day). If it's 50 and dry go for it!

The race was a disaster. It was windy but I took the chance at the 3. I tucked into the pacing group of 200 strong and felt pretty covered in there. My shot was over at 8 miles when the pacers ran an uphill mile at 6:31 which put me over my lactate threshold. I hung on for as long as I could but a major crash was always going to happen. DNF at 19 miles. I'm finished with f***ing marathons. I trained my a$$ off for months to do this race and the pacers blew my chance's with that one mile. What a bunch of tw@'s.