Fastnbulbous wrote:
Any reasons for the seeming lack of faith in Mead and Lomong?
I think if Mead can do it, so can Bumbalough. Remember, Bumby was still recovering from injury in that Payton Jordan run. If he's fully recovered and in the Pre 5000, watch out!
Bumba wrote:
I think if Mead can do it, so can Bumbalough. Remember, Bumby was still recovering from injury in that Payton Jordan run. If he's fully recovered and in the Pre 5000, watch out!
Bumby will never break 13:00. He is in the process of being surpassed by the next generation. Right now, even as we speak.
Fastnbulbous wrote:
Lagat has obviously pushed the whole way in many races from 1500 to 3000, resulting in incredibly fast times. Farah has done so in a 1500.
And both have tried to push the whole way in a 5000, resulting in 12:53 at best.
I don't know what Farah is going to do, but it makes no sense to say he couldn't break 12:50 when he's beaten many men faster than that when it counts the most.
when it comes to running sub 12:50, what counts the most is the clock. He may have beaten sub-12:50 guys, but not while they were running sub-12:50.
Farah's natural peak is 13:08. Sub 13 is an extreme effort for him. 12:53? One and done.
If it's any consolation, he's not even going to try, so you can at least go around saying he could because you'll never be proven wrong.
Fastnbulbous wrote:
Despite your convincing argument, I'm betting that yes, they do.
A 12:49.74 on the IAAF scoring table is 1248 points. Those points are also aligned with a 26:46.73 10,000, 8:02.26 SC, 7:28.68 3000, 3:29.80 1500 and 1:42.47 800.
If U.S. men continue progressing as they are, it's doable.
And who has actually run those times, except for Lagat back in the days in the 15?? Sub 12:50 come on.
Lagat I expect to break 13, Rupp should do so but last season wasn't great, True maybe.
52.43 wrote:
Fastnbulbous wrote:Despite your convincing argument, I'm betting that yes, they do.
A 12:49.74 on the IAAF scoring table is 1248 points. Those points are also aligned with a 26:46.73 10,000, 8:02.26 SC, 7:28.68 3000, 3:29.80 1500 and 1:42.47 800.
If U.S. men continue progressing as they are, it's doable.
And who has actually run those times, except for Lagat back in the days in the 15?? Sub 12:50 come on.
Lagat I expect to break 13, Rupp should do so but last season wasn't great, True maybe.
I remember statements about Rupp never being able to break 4;00 or 13:00 or 27:00. Look, Solinsky is/was great at 5000, but what had he done prior to his 2010 summer of 3 sub 12:57's that proved he was ready?
The answer is, plenty for those who knew how to see it.
In addition to already running 26:48.0, Rupp ran the following this indoor season:
3000 m 7:30.16 (AR, NR) February 21, 2013 XL Galan Stockholm, SWE
2 mile 8:07.41 (AR, NR) January 25, 2014 BU John Thomas Terrier Invitational[33]
5000 m 13:01.26 (AR, NR) January 16, 2014 2014 Boston University Limited Open Meet[3
Agreed, Rupp's mile, 3000 and 10,000 PRs are very close. He's capable of sub-12:50.
Lagat set the American record at the Monaco Diamond League meet in his usual sit-and-kick style, but was beaten by Mo Farah, who was just .49 ahead of him in 12:53.11. It was a good race, but I don't think the record was the main focus. Lagat is still competitive, and few would make the mistake in underestimating him. So put him in a race that goes 12:45-49, and I'm pretty damn sure he'll be right there or at least very close and dip under 12:50.
Thinking back, I remember Lagat did say he wanted to run 12:49-50, but that the second mile was slow. They were running with aggressive front-runner types like Isiah Koech (3rd), Longosiwa (4th) Kipchoge (5th, with a 12:46 PB), Alamirew and Kipkoech who just weren't on that day. Koech, Longosiwa, Alamirew and Kipkoech would all go on to run their 12:48-49 PBs the next year in the Paris DL race. Too bad Lagat and Rupp weren't in that one: http://www.flotrack.org/article/13401-RESULTS-2012-Paris-Diamond-League-Meeting-Areva#.U3E-WvldXC4
Hassan Mead needs to hook up with Alberto asap so he can utilize his Somalian genes , he will easily be the American version of Mo Farah
Mark Rowland is obviously a great coach. Look what he's done with Symmonds, Kipyego, and even someone like Chris Thompson. Mead is already better than the Schumacher guys at 5k. He should stay right where he is.
Agreed, Mead has had a ton of potential for a long time, competing in the 2008 U.S. Olympic Trials as a college freshman, and again in 2012. I think he was sidelined with injuries for a while and last year he had a couple good races but was still building. He's only 24, so I'm definitely excited about him.
10 of top 12 times set since 2009. And you still think thyroid med is not a PED?
asdfsf wrote:
Mark Rowland is obviously a great coach. Look what he's done with Symmonds, Kipyego, and even someone like Chris Thompson. Mead is already better than the Schumacher guys at 5k. He should stay right where he is.
I agree, as long as he can run bigger and better races through the summer. He is obviously talented but has not been able to bring that to an NCAA title, USA title or even an international team on the track that I am aware of. He's only a year older than Derrick, and his marks from 1500 - 10000 have been pretty much in line or better than Derrick, now obviously up on him at 5000. But Derrick has had much more success at showing up big at championship races and making the international teams.
If Mead can race well through the summer in some European races it may be a start in that direction.
Bad Wigins wrote:
when it comes to running sub 12:50, what counts the most is the clock. He may have beaten sub-12:50 guys, but not while they were running sub-12:50.
Farah's natural peak is 13:08. Sub 13 is an extreme effort for him. 12:53? One and done.
If it's any consolation, he's not even going to try, so you can at least go around saying he could because you'll never be proven wrong.
Ha ha, I missed this earlier. Does anyone agree with this logic? Farah beat 12:46-49 guys thoroughly and repeatedly when the stakes were highest, and his natural peak is 13:08? Please explain!
You don't know what Farah is going to do. Last I heard he'd like to try another marathon, but Salazar wants to convince him to focus on track through the next Olympics. There's an excellent chance he'll be back on the track, perhaps as early as a DL meet late summer (he could use that marathon base and pull off a couple PRs like Ritz did), but certainly for the World Championships next year.
One word: German MF Fernandez, baby!
2014: 12:59
2015: 12:49
2016: Gold
You heard it here first.
Fastnbulbous wrote:
Bad Wigins wrote:when it comes to running sub 12:50, what counts the most is the clock. He may have beaten sub-12:50 guys, but not while they were running sub-12:50.
Farah's natural peak is 13:08. Sub 13 is an extreme effort for him. 12:53? One and done.
If it's any consolation, he's not even going to try, so you can at least go around saying he could because you'll never be proven wrong.
Ha ha, I missed this earlier. Does anyone agree with this logic? Farah beat 12:46-49 guys thoroughly and repeatedly when the stakes were highest, and his natural peak is 13:08? Please explain!
You don't know what Farah is going to do. Last I heard he'd like to try another marathon, but Salazar wants to convince him to focus on track through the next Olympics. There's an excellent chance he'll be back on the track, perhaps as early as a DL meet late summer (he could use that marathon base and pull off a couple PRs like Ritz did), but certainly for the World Championships next year.
I would have guessed troll post. Nobody runs 3:29, 26:46 and 60:00:59 and finds a ceiling at 12:53. Even his 26:46 had plenty of running left in his legs.
If Farah was racing Komen, Geb, Tergat etc. in the days when 5000's were constantly rabbited for WR pace, we would know what his ceiling is, but likely it's under 12:45.
I really think five can do it. Lagat and Rupp have already done so before. If they stay on track as they have been, they're set. Then just three of these guys need to do it:
13:02.40 '13 Evan Jager
13:02.74 '14 Ben True
13:02.80 '14 Hassan Mead
13:07.95 '14 Lopez Lomong
13:08.04 '13 Chris Derrick
13:12.01 '13 Andrew Bumbalough
13:14.22 '13 Ryan Hill
13:16.65 '14 Garrett Heath
Really wish I could put Fernandez up there, but he hasn't even been competing. With luck perhaps he'll start racing later in the year and at least break 13:20 for starters.
13:15.33 '13 Diego Estrada
Almost forgot him, as he's also American, but was listed under MEX because of dual citizenship.
Well, he beat most of those guys in a 5000 this winter and ran a 7:37 a week later, so I think he still has his nose in here. Before this week, no one was talking about Mead, and now Mead's the focus and Bumbi and Hill, who didn't even run that bad, just not as great as expected, are suddenly out of the conversation? I think Bumbi will recover to run a 13:08 or so this year, which is really really good. Not sure I see sub 13. Jager, True, and Mead are all looking really good for it. 13:02 to 12:59:xx is not much of a stretch. Get them in a 12:48 race and they should get there.
I predict:
Lagat, Rupp, True, and Jager under 13 if they get in a good 5000 this summer
Mead, Derrick, Hill, Bumbi, Lomong I predict will run in the 13:02 - 13:09 range
Since that Stanford meet, pretty much all the Americans have had disappointing performances. Rupp of course is in great form, and could have a chance for an AR if the pace is right.
Here's the starting list for Diamond League Norway 5000 tomorrow:
http://www.diamondleague-oslo.com/Live-StartlistsResults/Overview/5000m/
Rupp, Lomong and Bumbalough are running with the big boys. Fingers crossed that someone keeps the pace honest and we see some fast times.
Also, I'll keep asking this question until someone knows the answer -- how does the selection process work? How did Bumbalough get an entry over other Americans with faster PRs? Did the others just not try to enter the meet? Best of luck to him, hope he gets a nice PR.
Wed 6/11, not tomorrow.