Any chance I can hit a 3:15 Marathon November 1st

As regards to long run pace, here is my advice: STOP OBSESSING. Every single thing you have mentioned with this is down to the second about pace. Considering your injury history and relatively low mileage history, just leaving the GPS at home and getting in the miles without feeling this need to hit a pace would serve you well*.

*This does not include specific workout days and the occasional pacework long run, but that's what, 2-3 days a week?

Just go run and get some time on your feet. Then you have a chance.

I'm an engineer by education and experience. Details matter a lot! However, your point is well taken.

I like to look at the general trends in my spreadsheet to see if the numbers support my feeling about the past week. I ran at the beach a few weeks back in high humidity and I felt lousy the whole week. The numbers (pace, heart rate) all said I felt lousy, even when I slowed way down. Got home and everything turned around and the numbers showed that too.

Drive the numbers, don't let them drive you. I understand. Thanks. That's helpful to remember.

If you can get your mileage up to follow something between 18/55-70 it should be easy for you. I did a similar plan last fall and ran 2:58 at 42. This was after running consistently for 1 1/2 years after a three year hiatus where I literally didn't run a step.

Bumping this thread as I'm realizing a 3:15 is my goal this year and although LRC has a bad search function, Google works well in tandem with LRC here.

Did 20 in 7:22 pace last Saturday, now am tapering this week and next. Even ran 1:36-ish for the half PR split and was feeling fine, no issues. Felt strong until the very end (up a huge hill), but that was part of our training, what we call The Monster. Then did 2 EZ cooldown miles for 22 miles total.

Originally I had wanted to try to BQ with a 3:05 but even with a solid 28-week training block and an average of 55-60 mpw most weeks (as well as 45-48 mile scalebacks), I realized my training is more conducive to a 3:15 right now.

I'll have to see what happens in a few weeks, then take a few weeks off, then get back on it for a spring marathon (CLE or PIT), with a goal of getting fast enough to run 3:05 or better.

Distance Fan wrote:

Does anyone have constructive advice for long run pace? Seems the coaches (Pfitzinger & Daniels) disagree, Daniels being slower and Pfitzinger pushing it a bit more (10% slower than goal pace for most of it). If you believe Renato the elite Kenyans run long and fast and that may be why they're a cut above. Of course I'm not elite in any sense.

Still, thanks for the comments. I know it is a lofty goal from where I am, but won't be heart broken with a 3:30 to 3:40 my first go. 3:15 is a BQ time for me (turn 40 this month), but I'd be ok with 2016. Number one goal: be healthy and get to race. Number two: don't hate the process or the race. Number three: respectable time (considering my background and training). Number four: throw down a few new PRs. Pie in the sky: squeak in to Boston.

Did you wind up Bostoning? I know this was 7 years ago lol.

20 days out from the WUC Marathon. I'm excited, but confident and know how to lock into pace properly with the watch. I know to use the running lap time (not overall time) and that's going to be HUGE on 2/6/22 in terms of not going out too fast:

Miles 1-3 8:10-7:50

Miles 4-6 7:50 down to 7:40

Miles 5-10 7:40-7:35

Miles 11-20 7:35 down to 7:25-ish?

Miles 21-26.2 (everything I have, but still holding back a little until 24. Goal is to get under 45 for the 10k)

20 @ 7:22 pace predicts faster than 3:15 IMHO. I ran 22 @ 8:11 3 weeks before running 3:10. I started at a 3:15 pace and slowly picked it up all the way and my only regret is not starting faster.

So, my 2 cents is start at ~7:40 and see how it goes.

Hobby_Jogger_999 wrote:

jecht wrote:

Did you wind up Bostoning? I know this was 7 years ago lol.

20 days out from the WUC Marathon. I'm excited, but confident and know how to lock into pace properly with the watch. I know to use the running lap time (not overall time) and that's going to be HUGE on 2/6/22 in terms of not going out too fast:

Miles 1-3 8:10-7:50

Miles 4-6 7:50 down to 7:40

Miles 5-10 7:40-7:35

Miles 11-20 7:35 down to 7:25-ish?

Miles 21-26.2 (everything I have, but still holding back a little until 24. Goal is to get under 45 for the 10k)

20 @ 7:22 pace predicts faster than 3:15 IMHO. I ran 22 @ 8:11 3 weeks before running 3:10. I started at a 3:15 pace and slowly picked it up all the way and my only regret is not starting faster.

So, my 2 cents is start at ~7:40 and see how it goes.

Thank you! When I ran the marathon up to 18 miles, before I bonked, this is what I had:

6:56, 7:18, 7:11, 7:12, 7:10, 7:05, 7:13, 7:03, 6:36, 6:56, 7:02, 7:13, 6:40, 7:05, 7:26, 7:15, 6:45, 7:18 to 18 miles (2:07:24, 7:04.6 pace)

8:03, 7:44, 7:54, 7:48, 7:46 to 23 miles (2:46:39, 7:14.7 pace)

8:49, 9:03, 9:01, 9:27, 6:29 (0.2 miles?) the last 3.2 miles. (I think the Strava is off, or the Columbus timing chips were at the wrong location).

It had me at 2:30:04 for the Cbus race results at 20, but on my Strava it had me at 2:23:11. Regardless, I bonked!

The 13.1 split of 1:33:45 on the Cbus marathon site seems correct, though; Strava has my 13-mile split as 1:31:35, so it's not out of question to be close enough to be at 1:33:45 for 13.18 miles.

jecht -- Were you on runnerchef's sub-3 thread a couple years ago? Or is my memory faulty? As I recall, you were closing in on 3:00 at the time?

Your adjusted goals seem very doable. Your training has gone well. Enjoy your taper, don't put on too much weight!

My last marathon was in the time range you're targeting (3:07). My pacing wasn't perfect, but I thought I'd share my splits as a contrast to your recent marathon. Note that I started MUCH slower, then settled into what felt comfortable.

I have an old-fashioned Timex Ironman watch, so "feedback" is only at each mile marker when I press the "lap" button. So, I pretty much have to run by feel.

The final three miles were challenging; maybe got a little over-confident during miles 20 through 23. Still, probably cost only a minute or so.

7:32, 7:03, 7:05, 7:05, 7:06

7:05, 6:53, 6:58, 7:00, 7:12,

7:13, 7:07, 7:09, 7:09, 7:09,

7:05, 7:05, 7:05, 7:05, 7:03,

7:02, 7:04, 7:02, 7:33, 7:33,

7:40, 1:28

Good luck.

Allen1959 wrote:

jecht -- Were you on runnerchef's sub-3 thread a couple years ago? Or is my memory faulty? As I recall, you were closing in on 3:00 at the time?

Your adjusted goals seem very doable. Your training has gone well. Enjoy your taper, don't put on too much weight!

My last marathon was in the time range you're targeting (3:07). My pacing wasn't perfect, but I thought I'd share my splits as a contrast to your recent marathon. Note that I started MUCH slower, then settled into what felt comfortable.

I have an old-fashioned Timex Ironman watch, so "feedback" is only at each mile marker when I press the "lap" button. So, I pretty much have to run by feel.

The final three miles were challenging; maybe got a little over-confident during miles 20 through 23. Still, probably cost only a minute or so.

7:32, 7:03, 7:05, 7:05, 7:06

7:05, 6:53, 6:58, 7:00, 7:12,

7:13, 7:07, 7:09, 7:09, 7:09,

7:05, 7:05, 7:05, 7:05, 7:03,

7:02, 7:04, 7:02, 7:33, 7:33,

7:40, 1:28

Good luck.

Thank you for the kind words, there are good posters on this board. #nosarcasm

I'll keep everyone updated, it's a weird course. 26 loops of 1 mile concrete/asphalt road. It's a big race, it's by a hotel and people from all around come to Dublin (outside Columbus), an Edge City in the I-270 beltway. The race itself is right off the highway.

I also am going to start the first 2 around 8:10-8:00 to be ABSOLUTELY safe and warmed up, then slowly taper down to 7:26 pace.

78 with my head, 75 with my training and the remainder with my heart.

https://www.runnersworld.com/training/a29342955/marathon-training-strategy/

Hobby_Jogger_999 wrote:

jecht wrote:

Did you wind up Bostoning? I know this was 7 years ago lol.

20 days out from the WUC Marathon. I'm excited, but confident and know how to lock into pace properly with the watch. I know to use the running lap time (not overall time) and that's going to be HUGE on 2/6/22 in terms of not going out too fast:

Miles 1-3 8:10-7:50

Miles 4-6 7:50 down to 7:40

Miles 5-10 7:40-7:35

Miles 11-20 7:35 down to 7:25-ish?

Miles 21-26.2 (everything I have, but still holding back a little until 24. Goal is to get under 45 for the 10k)

20 @ 7:22 pace predicts faster than 3:15 IMHO. I ran 22 @ 8:11 3 weeks before running 3:10. I started at a 3:15 pace and slowly picked it up all the way and my only regret is not starting faster.

So, my 2 cents is start at ~7:40 and see how it goes.

Did my last big workout before the taper tomorrow.

15 total, (16.5 with w/u and c/d), at the race course where I'll be running.

10@8:20, very easy and steady effort. Used the Garmin lap counter, that thing is a miracle. Even splits on every mile pretty much.

3@7:30, MP and felt solid but doable.

2@7:15 to simulate fatigue at the end of the race.

0.2/0.3?@7:09 to simulate the actual kick I'll need when I finish.

It was very cold, 15'F at the start, 22'F at the finish.

jecht wrote:

It was very cold, 15'F at the start, 22'F at the finish.

https://www.strava.com/activities/6564096619

Wow! That looks like a miserable run. You've got some mental toughness and ability to cope with boredom running around a loop like that so many times in the cold though.

B0NER wrote:

jecht wrote:

It was very cold, 15'F at the start, 22'F at the finish.

https://www.strava.com/activities/6564096619

Wow! That looks like a miserable run. You've got some mental toughness and ability to cope with boredom running around a loop like that so many times in the cold though.

Thanks for the kind words, it sucked early on with the cold temps though. WUC (the race on 2/6) should be warmer though (38-40'F).