Efrainson vs. Baxter vs. Maxwell vs. Knights at Arcadia

MIC ITW wrote:

I think there is a real chance we'll see the field be cautious and force Efraimson to lead. The girls all know they can't run away from her early or break her down with a fast pace; she's too versatile compared to them. She'll oblige by taking the lead, but at about 5:05 through 1600, 7:35 through 2400 and then she'll go drop a 2:20 for the last 800 for a 9:55. Maxwell and Baxter go 2-3 at 10:01 and 10:03.

Alternatively, they could pay a few of the second tier girls to go out in 4:55 and make for an exciting finale.

That would be a HORRIBLE tactic.

Efraimson wasn't far from falling off at NXN. On the other hand, she has FAR better footspeed than anyone except Maxwell (and she still has 3 seconds on her in the 800).

The only weakness Efraimson has shown to date is taking out races hard on her own. If she is sitting in a pack, no one is going to stand a chance when it comes down to the last lap or two.

IMO, the best bet to break her is probably to make a big push mid-race (re: push laps 3-6, as long as the first couple laps weren't TOO easy) to create a gap that she might not immediately cover, then fight like hell to maintain that gap to the finish.

If it comes down to a kick, Efraimson will win against any high schooler outside of Cain and possibly Cranny. So no one else in this field should let it come down to a kick unless they are settling for second.

Maybe it would be a horrible tactic to force her to lead, but she's shown already she can hang on to 9:40 3200 pace. Who exactly is going to run away from or gap her and be able to stay away on laps 3-6?

It's like asking 8:45-8:50 boys to run away from an 8:25 3200 boy; not gonna happen.

MIC ITW wrote:

Maybe it would be a horrible tactic to force her to lead, but she's shown already she can hang on to 9:40 3200 pace. Who exactly is going to run away from or gap her and be able to stay away on laps 3-6?

It's like asking 8:45-8:50 boys to run away from an 8:25 3200 boy; not gonna happen.

No, it's not. It's MUCH more like asking (in 2000/2001) Dathan Ritzenhein to not let Alan Webb sit on him till the end of the 3200.

Baxter showed that she can push Efraimson to her limits in XC. Granted, that's over 5k rather than 3200m, but Efraimson was still struggling. If you leave it to a footrace at the end, the one that's the most fresh AND has the best footspeed will win. That will be Efraimson.

So you can't leave it to a footrace at the end. And Baxter (and Cranny) have been the only one that has shown the possibility of breaking her by pushing hard from the start. So what's left? The middle of the race, where she's shown a tendency to drift.

Speaking of that strategy...

Here's a video of the 1999 FLN race. You'll notice Ritz hanging back for the first ~1500m (granted, it's a 5k in XC, but that's a bit more than a quarter of the race) before making a move, and note what the announcers talk about with regards to racing strategy at ~3:20 in.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V9CfaiGUyMA

watchout wrote:

Speaking of that strategy...

Here's a video of the 1999 FLN race. You'll notice Ritz hanging back for the first ~1500m (granted, it's a 5k in XC, but that's a bit more than a quarter of the race) before making a move, and note what the announcers talk about with regards to racing strategy at ~3:20 in.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V9CfaiGUyMA

Even better, that was actually the 2000 race. Mislabeled on youtube.

I understand what you are saying, but if Webb's 3200m PR was 27-28 seconds faster at the time than Ritz's it would sound a bit ridiculous to ask Ritz to try to run away from Webb.

Efraimson follows a very natural progression in terms of speed when looking at her times from 400m on up. Baxter on the other hand has too little muscle mass and so you see her times fall off in quality as the distance gets shorter.

When looking at the time progressions they meet exactly at 5000m. Efraimson is clearly superior at 3200m and under, while Baxter could probably put about :30 into Efraimson over 10K.

Her and Maxwell's only chance is that Efraimson takes charge from the gun. A 9:39 3200 running in the pack equates to a 9:49 running from the front. A 10:07 from the front equates to a 9:57 following others until the end.

That brings the gap down to :08 if Efraimson leads and is going 100%.

The best possible scenario for Baxter is that Maxwell and Efraimson lead side by side, with Maxwell on the inside and Efraimson right beside her on the outside. If they go stride for stride with one another that would break Maxwell eventually and then Baxter needs to hope for the legs of her life and/or Efraimson being just a little off.

It may sound ridiculous, but it is the strategy Ritz implemented in XC - and it worked, as he broke Webb during the third mile to run away with the title by 20 seconds.

Just to reiterate the similarities between the situation... Efraimson, like Webb, has far better footspeed and far better potential at the under distance events. Anna Maxwell is the only athlete in the field with anywhere near the same mix of speed and endurance.

But here's the bottom line:

If you're going to beat a better runner, you have to attack their weakness. The kick certainly isn't Efraimson's weakness - it's her strength (see NXN). She's shown she can get pulled to fast times with her 4:32i mile and her 9:00i 3k. What you also saw in those races was that she couldn't win. And she almost broke at NXN as well. And each time, she lost contact around 2/3 of the way through the race - she might have closed as fast, or faster, in each race, yet she was gapped. In the 3k, it was just after the 2k mark when the leaders took off - and Efraimson didn't follow. In the mile, it was just after the 1200m mark when the leaders took off - and Efraimson didn't follow (and they were going through in straight 70's to that point, it's not like she couldn't have tried to go with them). At NXN, it was just around 2.5k when she started falling off, though she surged back to the leaders by 3k but it was clear she was starting to struggle to maintain pace with them by that point already. Clearly, this is a trend. It's what Alexa probably needs to work on the most when it comes to racing - being able to stick with people when they make a move mid-race - and until she has shown the ability to stick with strong mid-race moves, that is a weakness.

So why would you attack her strength, when you can TRY to exploit the perceived weakness, as shown in both her best races and her solo efforts (she has tended to lag in the middle, like many racers, when she's running on her own). If she's going to get broken at any point in the race, it's when someone makes a big enough move in the middle of it and she doesn't respond quick enough. So that is the logical point of attack for any real contenders.

I can't speak to your math - I am not going to put a specific time on how much chasing will help Baxter, or leading will hurt Efraimson, or whether or not Efraimson would have finished in 9:40 against any competition at the UW Invitational. And I will be rooting for Efraimson in her race. But if I was her competition, or a coach of her competition, I'd be thinking about how to beat her - and the best solution I can see is to attack mid-race and try to break her there, so she won't be able to outkick me or my runner to the finish, and so you don't bite off more than you can chew too early (by blasting from the gun). But that's the key to racing, isn't it? Finding just the right time to make your move, and then make it decisively enough that you aren't countered.

That's what Ritz did at Footlocker in the example I gave. No way of telling if it will work, but it seems like a good plan to me (and seems like conventional wisdom, if you are facing someone with a better kick).

Efraimson - 9:50

Baxter - 9:58

Maxwell - 9:58

Nights - 10:05

O'Keefe - 10:10

I'm hoping this is the race where Baxter FINALLY BREAKS 10.

This will also likely be the first 3200m track race that Baxter loses (sadly, it comes during her senior year.)

I don't see how Baxter could would this, there are too many girls who are now just as fast if not faster.

There is nothing "sad" about this race, regardless of who wins, who gets beat, or what the times are.

This race is what track should be all about. The best of the best, coming together in the same race in a big meet setting, throwing it down.

The pros, their coaches, their agents, and meet organizers should all take a lesson from these courageous high school girls. They're not running away from each other in different events. They're not depending on rabbits and arguing over pace. They're not running set-up time trials at an undisclosed location. If the elite professional level of track was like this race, our sport wouldn't have an appeal problem.

Congratulations to all these top level girls for getting on the line together and risking defeat.

Looks like Allie Ostrander (Kenai Central AK) got added to the field as well!! Awesome!

Yes, there are too many girls faster than Baxter...Really? What a joke!

Calintine wrote:

I'm hoping this is the race where Baxter FINALLY BREAKS 10.

This will also likely be the first 3200m track race that Baxter loses (sadly, it comes during her senior year.)

I don't see how Baxter could would this, there are too many girls who are now just as fast if not faster.

Baxter has only lost one race in High School ever on a cold and snowy day in Portland Oregon. With as few miles as she runs that is amazing. i bet Efrainson runs 2 times as many miles as Baxter does right now. That said i really hope Efrainson joins Baxter at Oregon in 2 years over a garbage Washington program. This should be a great race between the 2 and GO DUCKS BABY OOOOOOOOOOOOOO

it will settle who the fastest 3200m is ... on that night

it might take a swing at who is the fastest 3200m in nation - no just the one's running

it won't settle who the best XC runner is

and it certainly won't settle who the best xc runner is next year

it won't have too much to do with XC

va coach wrote:

There is nothing "sad" about this race, regardless of who wins, who gets beat, or what the times are.

This race is what track should be all about. The best of the best, coming together in the same race in a big meet setting, throwing it down.

I agree that this is really what great, competitive track & field is all about and I applaud them for putting together such an outstanding field.

It's been a delight seeing Baxter race a near-perfect record all four years and I find it sad that it won't end with a perfect 2 mile record.

That being said, I think we all can agree that all of these girls should be praised for not ditching the competition and all coming together. It's usually only two or three top 3200m runners at Arcadia but this year seems like it will be very very deep. Wish Cranny were in the field as well.

Could this be the first race we see three sub-10s for HS girls?

Arcadia is an invitational race, not a championship race. Guys have been coming to Arcadia in recent years to set PR times with the great competition and conditions. I'm sure everybody wants to win, but most know it's not likely and use the competition to pull them along to fast times.

Efraimson comes into the girl's race as the top runner. Can't think of any reason why Efraimson would come to Arcadia except to set a major PR and possibly a HS record. Her coach said as much in an interview when he brought up Kim Mortensen's HS record.

Baxter and the other top runners should use Efraimson's effort to pull them along to PR times, not try to beat her with some mid-race tactical moves that can be saved for a championship race.

Efraimson wants a fast time so make her do the work and get sucked along for the ride. Wonder what Baxter can run if somebody else does the work for once. Efraimson is the lead runner, so my advise to the top other runners is make Efraimson lead and use it to your advantage. You never know what might happen!

MIC ITW wrote:

When looking at the time progressions they meet exactly at 5000m. Efraimson is clearly superior at 3200m and under, while Baxter could probably put about :30 into Efraimson over 10K.

.

Yeah, just like Ritz put :30 on Webb over 10000 hahahahaha

alexa FTW in any situation

probably 9:55 like some said, going out in 5:05ish

lots of other PRs but nobody else breaks 10

PR's are GREAT. At the end of the day, if I get a PR, I'll always be (somewhat) happy.

But Arcadia isn't just some invitational. It's the best field most of these kids will face this year (unless they make World Juniors, or possibly at the trials for World Juniors). If I feel I have any kind of chance, I can't imagine toeing the line and NOT wanting to win.

If the girls look at Alexa and already feel like they've lost the race... well, that's their choice. But I can't imagine all of the girls will feel that way - Ostrander hasn't lost to her before; Baxter has only lost once in HS; Maxwell has enough speed to be a threat; Knights has tied Baxter, so why can't she take a shot at Alexa?

They could race for second. They could just follow Alexa around the track and never dare to make a move if she falters. Or they could try to win, and in the process potentially come up big, either beating one of the greatest girl high school athletes ever or setting a massive PR.

Sometimes you have to take that risk to see what you can accomplish. A race like Arcadia is an opportunity to push yourself to your limits and see just what you're capable of.