The best distance runner of all time is debuting in the marathon this Sunday at Paris

Predictor of things wrote:

Do you think he can improve his WRs in the 5000m (set in 2004) and 10,000m (set in 2005)? If the answer to that is No, then he's past his prime.

Wrong again. Not being able to improve his world records wouldn't necessarily mean he's past his prime. Other possibilities could be that he decides to stay in the marathon and never runs on the track again or he might not find another fast 5k/10k race any time soon. I don't have an opinion either way of whether he is or isn't past his prime really. I don't know why you chose to ignore my Farah example.

not a Happy ending wrote:

It's supposed to be rainy and windy on Sunday in Paris.

Course record is 2:05:11 Stanley Bitwott.

If it's really bad weather, I'll revise my predictions to 2:07 - 2:07:30.

Even if Bekele is past his prime a 2:05-2:06 wouldn't be unrealistic. We are talking about one of the top 2 best track/xc runners ever. The marathon may be completely different, but I don't think Bekele would go into the marathon without being prepared.

2:05 mid for the win

ososi wrote:

Predictor of things wrote:

Do you think he can improve his WRs in the 5000m (set in 2004) and 10,000m (set in 2005)? If the answer to that is No, then he's past his prime.

Wrong again. Not being able to improve his world records wouldn't necessarily mean he's past his prime. Other possibilities could be that he decides to stay in the marathon and never runs on the track again or he might not find another fast 5k/10k race any time soon. I don't have an opinion either way of whether he is or isn't past his prime really. I don't know why you chose to ignore my Farah example.

if Farah's best running were 9 years ago, clearly he would be past his prime.

I understand your point that KB might never run a track race again...but any way you look at it, Farah's been on an upcurve for years, while Bekele has been on a downcurve. reversing a downcurve in an aging athlete is next to impossible.

It's all about what trajectory an athlete is on

It's not just a question of career longevity; it's also a discussion of how long or how far apart someone can race at the absolutely highest level. 10 years ago Farah wasn't running anywhere near as well as he is now--he was still progressing.

Ten years ago KB was running times virtually unimaginable not many years earlier. So let me ask my question this way: can you tell me of another distance runner (5,000m or longer) who performed at the absolute highest level (considering time, not honors won) and was extremely competitive or still running very, very fast times a DECADE later? Other than Geb, is there an example?

And I don't know--I'm genuinely curious. I don't think it can be done.

The people saying KB won't be able to run a fast marathon crack me up. The reasoning that is being used to back this line of though (wrong form for marathon/over-the-hill/just in it for the payday/etc.) is exactly what was said about Geb. (search this forum and you'll find the threads.)

KB moved up because he lost speed - the same reason Geb moved up.

And by the way, Geb was 35 when he ran 2:03:59, KB is 31.

Predictor of things wrote:

It's not just a question of career longevity; it's also a discussion of how long or how far apart someone can race at the absolutely highest level. 10 years ago Farah wasn't running anywhere near as well as he is now--he was still progressing.

Ten years ago KB was running times virtually unimaginable not many years earlier. So let me ask my question this way: can you tell me of another distance runner (5,000m or longer) who performed at the absolute highest level (considering time, not honors won) and was extremely competitive or still running very, very fast times a DECADE later? Other than Geb, is there an example?

And I don't know--I'm genuinely curious. I don't think it can be done.

me! me!

Grete Waitz - in 1979 she ran 2:27 at New York and in 1988 she ran 2:28 at New York, winning both years.

Keep in mind that in 2009 and 2010 the winning times were in the 2:28s also. so her 2:27/8 was not shabby even compared to today's runners.

What's the average age for world class marathon PRs?

It seems like mostly young guys fresh from the track. Kimetto to is old, but he started around a year before he started running 2:05

Bekele is such an unknown for this upcoming race because he hasn't had a very fast race in years.

His best indicator of fitness was the half marathon in the fall.

The time wasn't very fast and he didn't beat 40 year old Geb by much.

We don't know his progress since then.

I wouldn't expect much and that is probably why he picked a smaller marathon to start with.

ososi wrote:

Predictor of things wrote:

Do you think he can improve his WRs in the 5000m (set in 2004) and 10,000m (set in 2005)? If the answer to that is No, then he's past his prime.

Wrong again. Not being able to improve his world records wouldn't necessarily mean he's past his prime. Other possibilities could be that he decides to stay in the marathon and never runs on the track again or he might not find another fast 5k/10k race any time soon. I don't have an opinion either way of whether he is or isn't past his prime really. I don't know why you chose to ignore my Farah example.

1) You do not seem to be familiar with the meaning of the phrase "to be able to". Either that or the phrase "past one's prime". Possibly both.

2) The Farah comparison is irrelevant. Some people reach their peak at 24. Others at 34. The fact that Farah may be experiencing his peak years around the ages of 28 - 31 has no bearing on the question as to when Bekele experienced his peak years.

Seriously, some things are SO obvious that it hurts to have to point them out.

whiteswinagain wrote:

he got his *ss kicked by Rupp at the Olympics! hahahahahahaha.

When Rupp ran his PR who won that race?

I have no idea of how he will do and hope he runs well.

1. Okay, far enough.

2. How do you know that?

3. How would you know that?

Bekele is past his prime.

BUT...he doesn't need to be in his prime to run 2:03.

With that said, I think he'll run 2:05/6 due to lack of experience.

I don't think he will run fast by today's standards, i.e., 2:05:xx or faster.

I think he will either do one of two things

1) Good, but not earth shattering debut time, i.e., 2:08:00-2:10:00

2) DNF

I don't think he will ever run under 2:04:00. The top marathon guys right now could run 26:30 for 10k on the track or faster. Bekele struggled to run under 27 minutes last year (he didn't).

Bekele was basically a 13 min 5k / 27 min 10k guy last year. Give or take a few seconds but that was about his level. That is just not good enough to run with the Mutais / Kipsangs / Kimettos of the world.

Predictor of things wrote:

It's not just a question of career longevity; it's also a discussion of how long or how far apart someone can race at the absolutely highest level. 10 years ago Farah wasn't running anywhere near as well as he is now--he was still progressing.

Ten years ago KB was running times virtually unimaginable not many years earlier. So let me ask my question this way: can you tell me of another distance runner (5,000m or longer) who performed at the absolute highest level (considering time, not honors won) and was extremely competitive or still running very, very fast times a DECADE later? Other than Geb, is there an example?

And I don't know--I'm genuinely curious. I don't think it can be done.

coghlan too at a slightly lower level - ran

1975: 3:56 mile

1987: 2000 meters in 4:54. keep in mind the AR is 4:52

I don't think a 10 year career is that unusual...but you can't have 7 good years, have a serious injury, and then expect to get back to where you were.

Predictor of things wrote:

And to answer these questions:

1. I think it's objectively fair to say he IS past his prime, not that he probably is.

2. It's a guess. But an informed one. I agree with numerous other posters on this thread. If KB really had wanted to be a marathoner I think he would have moved up to it much sooner. The model of progressing from a 5k/10k runner to marathoner and being an elite at that level is (Geb aside) no longer a successful one. KB's prime marathon years were spent ruling the track.

3. Same as above. This is something he hasn't done, so he'll do it. Big pay day no matter what. But he has nothing to prove and he knows it. Among people in the know, expectations are pretty muted.

Thanks for replying (I just hit the keyboard and posted as Mhuk).

1. Not meaning to argue with that but Kipchoge is past his track prime and ran 2:04:05 in Berlin so maybe Bekele can still run great times if he adapts well to the Marathon.

2. I know he is not the norm but again, if he does as well as Eliud Kipchoge he may be very successful in the Marathon.

3. I still think he may be very motivated by the win over Mo in England and by the fact that Mo will debut one week later. Maybe a big rivalry between them will bring some fast times.

agip wrote:

if Farah's best running were 9 years ago, clearly he would be past his prime.

I understand your point that KB might never run a track race again...but any way you look at it, Farah's been on an upcurve for years, while Bekele has been on a downcurve. reversing a downcurve in an aging athlete is next to impossible.

It's all about what trajectory an athlete is on

There's no evidence that Bekele is on a down curve. He has been INJURED. what is so difficult for you guys to understand about that? Being injured is not the same as being past your prime or a down curve.

wrote:

agip wrote:

if Farah's best running were 9 years ago, clearly he would be past his prime.

I understand your point that KB might never run a track race again...but any way you look at it, Farah's been on an upcurve for years, while Bekele has been on a downcurve. reversing a downcurve in an aging athlete is next to impossible.

It's all about what trajectory an athlete is on

There's no evidence that Bekele is on a down curve. He has been INJURED. what is so difficult for you guys to understand about that? Being injured is not the same as being past your prime or a down curve.[/quote]

yes he is on a downcurve. here is his progression in the 5000. I see a clear pattern there. Do you?

2013 13:07.88 Ostrava 27 JUN

2012 12:55.79 Paris Saint-Denis 06 JUL

2009 12:52.32 Zürich 28 AUG

2008 12:50.18 Zürich 29 AUG

2007 12:49.53 Zaragoza 28 JUL

2006 12:48.09 Bruxelles 25 AUG

2005 12:40.18 Paris Saint-Denis 01 JUL

2004 12:37.35 Hengelo 31 MAY

2003 12:52.26 Oslo 27 JUN[quote]ososi

and the 10000 - same thing:

2013 27:12.08 Eugene, OR 31 MAY

2012 27:02.59 Birmingham, GBR 22 JUN

2011 26:43.16 Bruxelles 16 SEP

2009 26:46.31 Berlin 17 AUG

2008 26:25.97 Eugene, OR 08 JUN

2007 26:46.19 Bruxelles 14 SEP

2005 26:17.53 Bruxelles 26 AUG

2004 26:20.31 Ostrava 08 JUN

2003 26:49.57 Paris Saint-Denis 24 AUG