Chicago Predictions for Ritz and Teg

Ritz 2:08:45

Teg 2:11:15

Craig Leon 2:12:15

Ritz: 2:07:03

Teg: 2:11:32

M. Mosop wrote:

Ritz 2:09:23

Teg 2:13:27

Agreed.

Ritz 2:09:59

Teg DNF

The predicted high and lowes for sunday are 68/52 with a 30% chance of a T-storm. The wind is expected out of the NNE @ 7mph. Tougher conditions than last years cool/cold weather. I say 2:09-2:10.

Ritz kills it, Teg blows up.

Track Fan 1979 wrote:

The predicted high and lowes for sunday are 68/52 with a 30% chance of a T-storm. The wind is expected out of the NNE @ 7mph. Tougher conditions than last years cool/cold weather. I say 2:09-2:10.

THIS. Obviously it's still a bit early for weather forecast but keep in mind that last years weather was simply perfect. If I were Dathan, I would have picked a Marathon that can't be easily compared to Chicago 2012 (like NYC). If he has a good day and smart pacing, I still think high 2:08/low 2:09 should be possible. That will probably get him fastest American Marathon runner of the year.

nananana wrote:

Whatever it's worth, I'm nearly positive Ritz will try to go with the leaders.

Jason Hartmann is going to pace Ritz again this year, so it seems very unlikely that he'll go with the leaders, especially if they're talking 2:04 pace.

Nutella1 wrote:

Track Fan 1979 wrote:

The predicted high and lowes for sunday are 68/52 with a 30% chance of a T-storm. The wind is expected out of the NNE @ 7mph. Tougher conditions than last years cool/cold weather. I say 2:09-2:10.

THIS. Obviously it's still a bit early for weather forecast but keep in mind that last years weather was simply perfect. If I were Dathan, I would have picked a Marathon that can't be easily compared to Chicago 2012 (like NYC). If he has a good day and smart pacing, I still think high 2:08/low 2:09 should be possible. That will probably get him fastest American Marathon runner of the year.

Thankfully this is apparently not what drives Ritz (e.g. pick a marathon that can't be easily compared). That would be pathetic. Would Sammy, Khalid, or any great runner ever do that? Is that what the best Americans should be doing? No wonder the elites have a viewership that is dwindling. Most spectators (and by that I mean an overwhelming majority) are oblivious to the elites and are thereto watch their friends and family. The last four miles don't fill up with spectators until the masses come through.

Ritz right now is probably on par with Hall when he ran 2:06:17. Therefore, I'm going with 2:06:15 for a new American born record.

If the stars align, he may be able to get into the 2:05s... but think KKs 2:05:38 is safe. I view the liklihood significantly higher that he runs 2:09 than he runs 2:05 something, but don't think its out of the realm of possibility.

No wonder the elites have a viewership that is dwindling. Most spectators (and by that I mean an overwhelming majority) are oblivious to the elites and are thereto watch their friends and family. The last four miles don't fill up with spectators until the masses come through.[/quote/

I am referring to the Chicago course above as spectators can go to several different points on the course and see their friends as they pass. It has always bothered me to watch the final miles for the elites during the broadcast and see so few spectators. It must feel surreal for the elites compared to NYC.

This

Not sure whether he sets the American-born AR or not, primarily because I have no idea as to conditions, but Ritz wins the whole thing. He has all the tools and plenty of heart, and seems to be healthy.

Teg is a total wildcard, as we don't know how we would handle the distance. The best indication of his ability we have is the 20K, and although he won, he was hardly amazing. (His time there would indicate, everything being equal, a 2:14:XX.)

LikeBekeleButSlow wrote:

Not sure whether he sets the American-born AR or not, primarily because I have no idea as to conditions, but Ritz wins the whole thing. He has all the tools and plenty of heart, and seems to be healthy.

Teg is a total wildcard, as we don't know how we would handle the distance. The best indication of his ability we have is the 20K, and although he won, he was hardly amazing. (His time there would indicate, everything being equal, a 2:14:XX.)

You are predicting Ritz for 1st place?!? You can't possibly be serious.

YES

What the What wrote:

LikeBekeleButSlow wrote:

Not sure whether he sets the American-born AR or not, primarily because I have no idea as to conditions, but Ritz wins the whole thing. He has all the tools and plenty of heart, and seems to be healthy.

Teg is a total wildcard, as we don't know how we would handle the distance. The best indication of his ability we have is the 20K, and although he won, he was hardly amazing. (His time there would indicate, everything being equal, a 2:14:XX.)

You are predicting Ritz for 1st place?!? You can't possibly be serious.

I'm seeing on weather underground a predicion of a dewpoint around 55 and a 11 mph wind - that is ok weather, not great. Esp that wind.

So I don't think either will run spectacularly -

Ritz: 2:09:30

Teg: 2:11:00

Teg is a tough character - he's got the 14% from mental toughness wrapped up, plus it is his first marathon, which is not a bad thing. I would not be surprised at all if he runs better than ritz.

LikeBekeleButSlow wrote:

YES

What the What wrote:

You are predicting Ritz for 1st place?!? You can't possibly be serious.

OK, so you are trolling. Well mister, I'll one-up you. I predict that Zola Budd's high school daughter is going to be a surprise last minute entrant and run away with the whole thing. New world record of 2:02:21!

Whatever, can't wait for the race, even if he doesn't win, he'll surprise y'all negative people enough to make my prediction legitimate in retrospect.

LikeBekeleButSlow wrote:

Whatever, can't wait for the race, even if he doesn't win, he'll surprise y'all negative people enough to make my prediction legitimate in retrospect.

OK, fair enough. If he comes in top 3 overall OR goes sub 2:06:30 (American born record is Hall's at 2:06:17) then I will concede that your prediction was indeed legitimate.

Also can't wait for the race.