I think sub 4 is a solid bet, but how far under?
I think sub 4 is a solid bet, but how far under?
You mean like right now during marathon shape?
3:55 mile
kdkl wrote:
You mean like right now during marathon shape?
yes.
3:54
^thats now. 3:49-3:50 if he trained for it[quote]Ows wrote:
3:54[/quote
nah....prolly around 4 min. but the mile is a different game. dont forget that. thats why mo farahs 3.28 creates such fuss.
for most guys (not implying that kipsang is an ordinary guy tho) transfering from long to short and vice versa is a big deal. whow to handle when the l. acid kicks in? how to find a rythm going almost all out?
in that aspect i think its more interested to see what kipchoge can do with more m races under his belt....
he is a decent 3.30-3-35 performer so if he can bring that into the marathon. mamma mia.
he is also one of few who has beaen el g and kenny b.
There is very little correlation between the mile and the marathon just as there is little between 100m and 5000m. Some runners can hold a steady pace for a very long time(marathoner type) while others can run at higher frequency(speed)but do not have endurance. Anyone with upto 4:15 mile speed can run 4:42 mile pace for a marathon if they have the endurance. Of course it is not easy but it is those who have the endurance who have a chance. Emmanuel Mutai is one of the best marathoners in the world but check his half marathon PB and PB for other shorter distances like 15k and 10k. He has not broken 1 hr in the half marathon.
http://www.iaaf.org/athletes/kenya/emmanuel-kipchirchir-mutai-207499
Athletes who can't seem to break 4 mins in 1500m do not have to give up but instead should focus their training to see how long they can hold that pace.
There is a big difference between what someone is capable of and what they have actually run. I have no doubt that Mutai has been capable of a sub 60 half when in top marathon form.
That is not to be overlooked.
could of been a champ wrote:
I have no doubt that Mutai has been capable of a sub 60 half when in top marathon form.
Really? What clued you in on that, the fact that he's run sub-60 at least 3 times in the midst of many good marathons?
Haile Gebrselassie ran a mile in 3:52.39, so Kipsang should be able to do roughly the same, if not better, if he trained for it.
Lamento Boliviano wrote:
Haile Gebrselassie ran a mile in 3:52.39, so Kipsang should be able to do roughly the same, if not better, if he trained for it.
I dunno probably not. Haile had been renowned for his track speed for nearly 15 years before he took down the marathon WR. Kipsang doesnt have the track history Geb did. And for the record geb ran 3:31 for 1500 which is quite a bit better than 3:52 for the mile
He probably couldn't break 60 for a 400. Given the sort of endurance that you need to not be able to break 60 and run 105 70s, I'd say probably about 3:55 at least.
[quote]Calgary wrote:
Anyone with upto 4:15 mile speed can run 4:42 mile pace for a marathon if they have the endurance. Of course it is not easy but it is those who have the endurance who have a chance.
How many people have run 4:42 per mile for a Marathon?
3:58 to 4:04 is my bet
the notion that he couldn't break 60 for a 400 is ridiculous. Could he break 50? No. But saying he is slower than a mediocre HS freshman is blasphemy. 105 70s in a row and not being able to run 1 10 seconds faster? I get it hes an endurance athlete, but some of you Letsrunners have no common sense.
Or they're joking!
3:54 would be my non educated, random guess.
Gebrselassie ran 26:51 the same year he ran the marathon WR, so he was probably at least 13:00 capable for 5k, and by that logic maybe 3:36? 3:37? capable. I think that makes it reasonable to suggest Kipsang would run a similar time.
mebe wrote:
Lamento Boliviano wrote:Haile Gebrselassie ran a mile in 3:52.39, so Kipsang should be able to do roughly the same, if not better, if he trained for it.
I dunno probably not. Haile had been renowned for his track speed for nearly 15 years before he took down the marathon WR. Kipsang doesnt have the track history Geb did. And for the record geb ran 3:31 for 1500 which is quite a bit better than 3:52 for the mile
My young and dumb opinion probably means little, but I think if Geb had focused solely on the 1500, 3000, & 5000, he could have been as good if not better than Komen or El G, and set records in these events in the same manner as he did for the 5000 and 10000. I mean, his innate top end speed was phenomenal. That closing 25 second 200m at the end of the 10000m in Sydney to beat out Tergat was insane.
could of been a champ wrote:I have no doubt that Mutai has been capable of a sub 60 half when in top marathon form.
Hardloper wrote:Really? What clued you in on that, the fact that he's run sub-60 at least 3 times in the midst of many good marathons?
You do realize the post was referring to Emmanuel Mutai, right? When did he run sub-60?
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