2003: Paul Tergat 2:04:55. 2013: Wilson Kipsang 2:03:23. WR improving ~10s per year.

It won't slow down. Kipchoge has gone from 2:05:30 to about 2:04 flat in his first 2 marathons. He will be the first to break 2:03. I was hasty to predict it today, but it will happen.

It was the track stars Tergat and Geb who raised the bar before, it will be Kipchoge and Bekele who raise it next.

Ek and KB will eventually go 2:02.30 or so.

After that no improvement because the talent on the track

has already moved to the marathon.

Tergat had superior speed compared to today's marathoners.

Had he run it in his prime, 2:02 low would have been possible

on a perfect day.

It's all very well saying that track speed is what's needed. But WK has no particular track pedigree and has just broken the world record which rather suggests that track speed is not necessary.

More generally I don't see why track speed should be necessary for breaking marathon records. Even pacing is what's needed to run the best possible time. Of course if it's a sprint for the line then the guy with good speed may well come out in front, but you've got to keep pace with someone like Kipsang for 42km before that comes into play.

what up with the fu'c'king loser ho jumped out of the crowd and ran in front of Kipsang at the finish line lol!!!!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UNv5CzNfHjU

I hope the cops jumped on that fvcker and beat him bloody.

pr100 wrote:

It's all very well saying that track speed is what's needed. But WK has no particular track pedigree and has just broken the world record which rather suggests that track speed is not necessary.

More generally I don't see why track speed should be necessary for breaking marathon records. Even pacing is what's needed to run the best possible time. Of course if it's a sprint for the line then the guy with good speed may well come out in front, but you've got to keep pace with someone like Kipsang for 42km before that comes into play.

There's a difference between track speed and a track PR.

yyy wrote:

Tergat had superior speed compared to today's marathoners.

Had he run it in his prime, 2:02 low would have been possible

on a perfect day.

I´ve read an interview with Tergat where he says that Tergat the track runner and Tergat the marathoner were two completely different runners, training-wise.

When he ran on the track he ran around 140 km/week with a lot of insane track workouts and long runs of 90 minutes. When he turned to the marathon he started to run 250 km/week and gave up speed training completely and only did tempos, so he basically lost all his track speed.

Do you have a link to this interview? I would love to read it.

It is also interesting that the WR went down 4yrs after Tergat broke it, 3yrs after Haile last broke it and 2yrs after Patrick Makau broke it! 4,3,2.... With the likes of Geoffrey Mutai, Moses Mosop and the Ethiopians, it seems safe to predict a fall of this Record next year. Only thing that might stop it is unfavourable weather conditions. It is time for Ethiopians to get out of Haile's shadow in the marathon and start chasing 2:03 like the Kenyans. They are capable.

rupp-certified saladbar wrote:

So, the world record in the marathon is coming down at about 9.2 seconds per year, or 0.35 per mile per year.

Assuming this stays the same (and it will probably slow down, really) that would project to

rupp-certified saladbar wrote:

So, the world record in the marathon is coming down at about 9.2 seconds per year, or 0.35 per mile per year.

Assuming this stays the same (and it will probably slow down, really) that would project to

The world record in 2003 was 2:05:38, why would you use tergats record as the starting point? It's come down 135 seconds in the last 10 years.

Check out the Marathon WR progression.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marathon_world_record_progression

1. There has been big money in the marathon since the 80s. Far more than track in both single pots and number of races offering money.

2. Very good track runners have run marathons since the 80s.

3. The WR held at 2:06:50 for nearly 10 years ('88 - '98) and KK knocked it down to 2:05:38 over a 3 year span and was virtually unbeatable. Very few others were even below 2:07. Now KK sits in the 60s on the all time performance list 10 years later. In 2003, Where did Dinsamo (1988 WR, 15 years later) sit? A quick count shows

Did this get edited?

Continued.

Quick count shows

Continued.

Why is a rational post being deleted?

Apparently, I am not allowed to finish this. Draw your own conclusion from the above points.

mod, you are sick in the head and everyone hates you.

AndAnotherThing wrote:

1. There has been big money in the marathon since the 80s. Far more than track in both single pots and number of races offering money.

Do you have data supporting this? Just an off-hand glance shows many more lucrative marathons in the past 15 years than ever before (Dubai, Mumbai, Hong Kong, loads of races in China). I believe the total prize purse in Chicago in the mid 1980s was around $50,000, which would be worth around $100,000 today.

There are only so many opportunities to make money as a top level 5000m runner today, while there are many, many more opportunities to make money as a road racer.

The WR has been lowered 23 minutes and 19 seconds in my lifetime.

Down over a minute a mile in the last 100 years from Alexis Ahlgren's 2:36:06 to todays race