Well you obviously wrote that, the posts are there as proof. Why would you say that and then try to ignore it? Did you mean it or not?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Sure, whatever you say Mr. Idiot. Buy Thursday on the dip with Blind Mellon.
idiot investor wrote:Ghost of Igloi wrote:Well you obviously wrote that, the posts are there as proof. Why would you say that and then try to ignore it? Did you mean it or not?
Sure, whatever you say Mr. Idiot. Buy Thursday on the dip with Blind Mellon.
Sorry, Igy, but you're wrong again. Your record hasn't been very stellar.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
POTO,
How about double or nothing and we extend out bet six months to March 13, 2017? New President and Administration? Could be interesting?
Igy
the dotcom burst is the only one that makes any real sense for...and even then it only makes partial sense.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
The stock market dies from excessive valuation.
As far as I'm concerned, the above is all correct. I would add that a new type of shock could come from the failure of trading infrastructure--power outages, communication interruptions, viruses, some combination of those factors, etc.
agip wrote:Ghost of Igloi wrote:the dotcom burst is the only one that makes any real sense for...and even then it only makes partial sense.
The stock market dies from excessive valuation.
otherwise for a bear market you need a shock to the system. A recession, an oil embargo, a massive spike in interest rates, a national disaster etc.
stocks dont' fall sharply just because of a highly valued market.
10 year returns will be poorer starting at high valuations tho
Detector: Thanks for calling him out! He stole my handle for this one.
Mellon wrote:
Detector Dude is a moron, make your own decision on whether to pay attention to any of his posts. Under numerous handles I might add.
Oh the irony!
Bump
idiot investor wrote:
How can a prediction for the coming year be "off by a couple of days?"
The consensus view is that Bear Markets are caused by an event trigger, could be a recession or some other excuse to sell. That trigger is only "discovered" after the fact, but the overvaluation, or the reason stocks were not a good investment was there. The event accelerates the decline. Technology stocks in 1997 and houses in 2005 were poor investments. You did not have to wait until 2002 or 2010 to figure it out. Most here are destined to make the same mistake. All you are doing is picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. If you can sell to a greater fool, then good for you. But someone must hold each share of stock thru the full market cycle.
Maserati wrote:agip wrote:As far as I'm concerned, the above is all correct. I would add that a new type of shock could come from the failure of trading infrastructure--power outages, communication interruptions, viruses, some combination of those factors, etc.Ghost of Igloi wrote:the dotcom burst is the only one that makes any real sense for...and even then it only makes partial sense.
The stock market dies from excessive valuation.
otherwise for a bear market you need a shock to the system. A recession, an oil embargo, a massive spike in interest rates, a national disaster etc.
stocks dont' fall sharply just because of a highly valued market.
10 year returns will be poorer starting at high valuations tho
Also, Wed will probably be the small dip, if there is one. This rate hike is already largely priced in.
Everything is bullish. Rate hike = inflation = economic growth = earnings growth and price inflation.
This is how things are perceived, and it is perception that matters more than substance.
I notice that nobody opined on Bitcoin or other cryptos. While considering Bitcoin I got my feet wet in Ethereum, and put in a thousand bucks, for fun...and profit. I might take it out and buy Bitcoin with it, just for fun...and profit.
"The market is way overpriced. It's not as intellectual as people would think, or as economists would have you believe."
Gruntz wrote:
"Most here are destined to make the same mistake."
I think you severely underestimate the intelligence of most here.