https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=cIaLGhost of Igloi wrote:
Ryan,
. Household wealth has exploded
Igy
Good night; have to get up early and babysit my grandchildren.
OK, proves data can be create multiple pictures. Debt is major driver of this cycle any way it is painted.
la gente está muy loca wrote:
Good night; have to get up early and babysit my grandchildren.
Concern....?
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGTLBLA027NThe most relevant chart...
Hussman? LOL!
lol gente, what would we do without FRED? Something good that gov has done.
The plots are very much fun. I plot stuff there all the time, but have essentially given up looking for meaning in them. I have found myself looking at larger non-quantitative trends and history, and basing my decisions on that. I can always find data and generate plots to support my case, as can pretty much anybody else.
I will freely admit that this time around, I have no good idea what will happen in the future...for me, the first time ever. Maybe it's because of a change in life situation and perspective, I don't know. Maybe the piss and vinegar of youth is gone. For whatever reason, I'm adrift on the financial sea.
Record levels with no volume, and what volume exists is short covering...and yet nobody seems to be exiting the market at the moment.
Nobody is exiting the market right now, but I can assure you, there are plenty of people waiting at the door.
Ghost of 29 wrote:
Nobody is exiting the market right now, but I can assure you, there are plenty of people waiting at the door.
...and when they do, some will be stuck at the door unable to exit at anything lower than 30%....
Moore Off wrote:
Helloooooooo? wrote:Read the contest rules, numbnuts.
Look at the calendar. He is eliminated. Tomorrow is all he has left. Market not open on Feb.20.
Not that I expect this to happen on Dec 31, 2018, or anytime before that, I just picked a date that there is a chance this thread may still be going on.
I do think your rules were a little flawed. It should have been a 10% drop from where the Dow was on the date you started the contest. Especially, with people predicting a pending 50 - 60 % drop.
But, I'll stick by the rules and my prediction.
mellon, I'm with you. I'm like the Price is Right contestant who makes the second-highest bid. I guess I should have picked Dec 30, 2018!
Look at the recent trading ranges. Yes we have had recent corrections, but this is really a very static market, macroscopically.
Can I ask what your specific reasons are for believing there won't be a 10% correction in 2017 or 2018?
And 29, yes there are people waiting at the door...but what are they waiting for? Are they like me and holding out hope for a substantial selloff to BTFD?
There's nothing I'd like more than a 50% drop so that I could purchase a large dividend portfolio and walk away forever.
Boy am I ever wanking today. Tired, I guess, late night last night helping my wife with business.
Perhaps this is more to your liking Loser, LOL:
Maserati,
In regards to BTFD, in the last two Bear markets, the market traded sideways for several months near the highs, then went to a 8-10% decline, later to bottom above 50% decline. The question in my mind is whether the decline is slow like 2000-2002 or more frightening like 2007-2009. Waterboarding or root canal without meds?
BTFD will backfire you know.
Igy
Same old assumptions, same old simplistic and slavishly mechanical adherence to historical precedent.
The usual observations of the historical past, presented in intemporal language, as though the observations were time-invariant and axiomatic--an assumption for which no compelling rational argument is made.
More evidence that nobody with any real brains goes into investing or finance.
On the flip side, though, it is possible to over-think something.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Ghost of 29 wrote:Nobody is exiting the market right now, but I can assure you, there are plenty of people waiting at the door.
...and when they do, some will be stuck at the door unable to exit at anything lower than 30%....
No surprise there. You understand how markets work, right?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Maserati,
In regards to BTFD, in the last two Bear markets, the market traded sideways for several months near the highs, then went to a 8-10% decline, later to bottom above 50% decline. The question in my mind is whether the decline is slow like 2000-2002 or more frightening like 2007-2009. Waterboarding or root canal without meds?
BTFD will backfire you know.
Igy
In my last post I was referring to the article you linked from guru.
BTW I know 2 people who have made serious bank from BTFD over the past 3 years. Serious bank. They haven't yet cashed out, they believe that there will be more BTFD opportunity before fall 2017. This time around it's me watching someone else who nailed it, and they really have. No the music hasn't yet ended, but I would note that you badly lost the prediction contest ;)