Check in with the psychologist and leave me alone.

Check in with the psychologist and leave me alone. 
la gente estÃ¡ muy loca wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
More on the RBS call:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12093807/RBScriesselleverythingasdeflationarycrisisnears.html
Textbook case of projection.
http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=RBS&style=technical&template=&p=DO&d=M&sd=01%2F01%2F2003&ed=01%2F12%2F2016&size=L&log=0&t=BAR&v=1&g=1&pct=1&evnt=1&late=1&o1=&o2=&o3=&sh=100&indicators=&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=01%2F12%2F2016#jump
http://financials.morningstar.com/ratios/r.html?t=RBS
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/819294533951307781 
What in the world compels you to chase me around this site?

You are both a stalker and more than moderately demented.

la gente estÃ¡ muy loca wrote:
la gente estÃ¡ muy loca wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
More on the RBS call:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12093807/RBScriesselleverythingasdeflationarycrisisnears.html
Textbook case of projection.
http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=RBS&style=technical&template=&p=DO&d=M&sd=01%2F01%2F2003&ed=01%2F12%2F2016&size=L&log=0&t=BAR&v=1&g=1&pct=1&evnt=1&late=1&o1=&o2=&o3=&sh=100&indicators=&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=01%2F12%2F2016#jump
http://financials.morningstar.com/ratios/r.html?t=RBS
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/819294533951307781
heh  nice one 
la gente estÃ¡ muy loca wrote:
la gente estÃ¡ muy loca wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
More on the RBS call:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12093807/RBScriesselleverythingasdeflationarycrisisnears.html
Textbook case of projection.
http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=RBS&style=technical&template=&p=DO&d=M&sd=01%2F01%2F2003&ed=01%2F12%2F2016&size=L&log=0&t=BAR&v=1&g=1&pct=1&evnt=1&late=1&o1=&o2=&o3=&sh=100&indicators=&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=01%2F12%2F2016#jump
http://financials.morningstar.com/ratios/r.html?t=RBS
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/819294533951307781
LMAO
Of course time frames are arbitrary, but investment managers who blurt out specifics like "sell everything now" must absolutely curse the web. 
Q: is there any belief among those on this board that conditions under the incoming administration will permit earnings to rise sufficiently to bring P/E's back down to "historically reasonable" territory, or debt/EBITDA back down to earth?

Maserati wrote:
Q: is there any belief among those on this board that conditions under the incoming administration will permit earnings to rise sufficiently to bring P/E's back down to "historically reasonable" territory, or debt/EBITDA back down to earth?
Maserati,
Let's do a little math and look at real numbers. I am going to use all GAAP numbers since nonGAAP is to open to manipulation. The S&P 500 for most recent completed quarter Q3 2016 had Last Twelve Month (LTM) Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $89.09. The GAAP PE with a closing index value on 9/30/2016 of 2168.27 was 24.33. The last two times earnings were at this level 6/30/2013 and 3/31/2012 the LTM EPS was $90.95 with a PE 17.66, and LTM EPS $88.54 and 15.91 respectively.
The Shiller CAPE 10 PE historic mean is 16.71 and median is 16.05.
If you take the average of the most earlier reasonable level GAAP PEs and Shiller CAPE 10 mean and median, you get an average PE of 16.58. Yesterday's S&P 500 close was 2275. So, to get the current market earnings to rise to a level of "historically reasonable" territory GAAP earnings would need to rise to $137.21 (2274 / 16.58 = $137.21).
Is that reasonable? GAAP LTM EPS have never been higher than $105.96 (9/30/2014), or 29% higher than the current record. The $137.21 GAAP EPS number would be 54% higher than the most recent completed quarter.
How realistic is that "belief"?
Not very.
Igy 
Big Dog Investments wrote:
I propose another DGTD prediction contest: PREDICT THE CORRECTION.
Here are the rules:
1) Give the exact date that the Dow will reach 10% below its high.
2) Your prediction must be made before the Dow has fallen 3% from its high.
Closest to the actual date wins with the winner receiving one genuine "attaboy" as prize.
Will it happen before the end of 2016? After the inauguration? Groundhog Day?
Let's hear what you think.
Igy is the first one out. I'm up next with an elimination date of January 26 (midway between me and Econ) assuming no new blood jumps into the pool within that range.
The prediction pool:
Igy: January 9, 2017  ELIMINATED
Big: January 13, 2017
Econ: Feb 8, 2017
agip: March 4, 2017
Maser: June 17, 2017
Mellon: December 31, 2018
Current data (as of 1/11/17):
Dow high...19,999.63
Prediction goal...17,999.66
Cut off number...19,399.64 (make your prediction before Dow reaches this)[/quote] 
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Let's do a little math and look at real numbers. I am going to use all GAAP numbers since nonGAAP is to open to manipulation. The S&P 500 for most recent completed quarter Q3 2016 had Last Twelve Month (LTM) Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $89.09. The GAAP PE with a closing index value on 9/30/2016 of 2168.27 was 24.33.
PE is price/earnings. You're using the index value instead of the average stock price. They're not the same thing. 
Huh? I have no idea what your point is.

My point is that to calculate P/E of the S&P, you take the average share price and divide it by the average share earnings. You did not use the average share price.

OK then, you give me the numbers using your calculation.

Waiting?

Check ur math wrote:
My point is that to calculate P/E of the S&P, you take the average share price and divide it by the average share earnings. You did not use the average share price.
Still waiting for your calculation? 
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
OK then, you give me the numbers using your calculation.
As I explained, one would need to know the average share price for the calculation. 
Check ur math wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
OK then, you give me the numbers using your calculation.
As I explained, one would need to know the average share price for the calculation.
Back to trolling math dude.
You are just wrong, period. That is why you can't calculate it.
Check for yourself: S&P 500 PE can be calculated at any given point in time by using this formula. Current S&P Index Level / Last Twelve Month GAAP EPS = Current S&P 500 PE
2,270 / $87.17 = 26.04
Furthermore, there is a website that calculate the PE on an ongoing basis, and does the same for the Shiller CAPE 10. Listed below:
http://www.multpl.com/
Poor troll attempt.
Igy 
Read what you linked..."Current PE is estimated from latest reported earnings and current market price." Market price, not index value.
Given the average market price and the average earnings per share, you can calculate the P/E by dividing the first number by the second.
No trolling. Don't be so defensive. 
Market price is the index value.
Igy 
Loser alert wrote:
It takes one to know one.
Wow. What a creative, ingenious comeback.
You would be able to more than hold your own in pre school.