http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-01/recessions-predictions-stock-market
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You prove my point by posting that graph of the Wilshire total market return.
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I'm not sure which is funnier...that you're on Twitter or that you follow Hussman.
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Passive investor cliff:
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-bull-giveth-the-bear-taketh-youre-not-passive/ -
I'm guessing that you don't realize that you just contradicted yourself.
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Retail investors (Muppets) needed for the final paper handoff:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-01/bofa-institutional-clients-sell-stocks-record-21-straight-weeks-due-soaring-redempti -
So you're not a fan of "sell high"? No wonder you're losing money.
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U.S. stock futures were mostly a touch lower Wednesday as investors, increasingly unsettled by the prospect of a tightening presidential race,, moved away from perceived riskier investments such as stocks and gravitated toward the traditional havens of gold and the Japanese yen.
Investors are also awaiting the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which concludes in the afternoon, though that event was taking a back seat to U.S. politics.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slipped 16 points to 17,921, while S&P 500 futures fell 0.8 point to 2,103. Nasdaq-100 futures gained 0.25 point to 4,757.50.
The softness for futures came after U.S. stocks finished at nearly four-month lows on Tuesday, falling after polls showed a tightening presidential race. In particular, an ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll showed Republican nominee Donald Trump taking a one-point lead over rival Hillary Clinton.
"The post-Brexit vote market reaction is still fresh in investors' memory, and no one wants to be caught on the wrong side of the trade," Hussein Sayed, FXTM's chief market strategist, said in a note on Wednesday.
"It will only take another one or two polls showing a Trump lead to boost markets anxiety and thus a steep sell off in equity markets and high beta currencies," he added.
Global stocks tracked the weakness on Wall Street, keying off those political jitters. Most Asian markets suffered losses of more than 1%, with the exception of the Shanghai Composite Index, which finished 0.6% lower. European stock markets traded lower, led by banks
The dollar was also under pressure, as investors sought refuge in the Japanese yen. The greenback strengthened against the Mexican peso , which tends to weaken on signs Trump's prospects are improving.
In another sign that investors are jittery, gold prices were climbing. The metal was up $8.60, or 0.7%, to $1,296.50 an ounce, holding above a one-month closing high marked on Tuesday. -
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Hulbert,
Your piece goes against fundamental investment principles and just a variation of "this time is different." Furthermore, the Dow is at the same place it was on December 29, 2014. Yes 2014, not 2015.
Igy
Hulbert wrote:
Here's why the stock bull market is alive and well...
https://research.tdameritrade.com/grid/public/markets/news/story.asp?docKey=1-SN20161101007424
Try reading the article before commenting. It's quite the opposite of "this time is different". -
"Mark Hulbert, a columnist for MarketWatch, has repeatedly sought to find answers for the downturn but has come up empty handed. ... "
Surprise! -
What "downturn"?
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Helloooooo? wrote:
What "downturn"?
Be careful how you respond. You'll be getting a call from Matlock. -
Helloooooo? wrote:
What "downturn"?
The downturn that regularly occurs each September. The poster did not cite his source because he didn't want you to know he was taking the quote out of context in a failed attempt to discredit Mark Hulbert. Desperate people do desperate things.
https://tickertape.tdameritrade.com/marketupdate/2016/08/see-you-in-september-60062 -
Hulbert,
Oh, my bad, I thought you were referring to the fact the DOW and S&P Index are at the same levels of 12/31/2014. Yes, Mr. Hulbert 2014, not 2015.
Igy -
This Week 10/31/2016
Far Beyond Double
"Historically reliable valuation measures aren’t just 15% or 20% above their historical norms (which could at least be justified on the basis of low interest rates). They’re well beyond double those norms. Based on the behavior of a broad range of market internals, we are now observing a shift toward risk-aversion among investors, at a point where the most reliable valuation measures we identify have been driven to some of the most obscene levels in history."
By John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
President, Hussman Investment Trust -
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
This Week 10/31/2016
Far Beyond Double
"Historically reliable valuation measures aren’t just 15% or 20% above their historical norms (which could at least be justified on the basis of low interest rates). They’re well beyond double those norms. Based on the behavior of a broad range of market internals, we are now observing a shift toward risk-aversion among investors, at a point where the most reliable valuation measures we identify have been driven to some of the most obscene levels in history."
By John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
President, Hussman Investment Trust
That is not the problem. THIS is the problem:
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/SPY00/technical-chart#/technical-chart?plot=BAR&volume=0&data=MC&density=X&pricesOn=1&asPctChange=0&logscale=0&startDate=2000-12-26&endDate=2016-11-02&daterange=specific&sym=SPY00&grid=1&height=500&studyheight=200
This is what you get if you try to be a buy and hold investor in the presence of major timing cycles. Even if you ignore that the bear side of the present cycle is going to come SOME TIME, you end up with an annualized ROR on the order of 2%. You only avoid this if you trade the top/bottom ranges of the cycle.
A lot of money could be made if you sold in 2005-2008 and bought in early 2009. A lot of profits were liquidated if you did not do this. -
coach d,
No argument from me. At these valuations and market action I am not an interested buyer.
Igy -
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
coach d,
No argument from me. At these valuations and market action I am not an interested buyer.
Igy
You're going to need to cover your shorts soon, I would think. -
Perhaps. Either way I am not an interested buyer.
