Bigfoot Investors wrote:
Trying to time the market is a fool's game.
Agreed. The average investor will have below average returns because they tend to panic sell, just like the fellow who started this thread. But this guy 'saw', or 'felt', things that just weren't there. Too bad for him, but someone is making a tidy profit off of his foolishness.
Too bad I missed out on the 2000-2002 and 200809 collapses because I foolishly panic sold in advance.
I missed out on those tidy losses everyone who stayed in enjoyed
That's exactly my point: trying to time the market is a crap shoot. You may win occasionally, but overall you are likely to lose. A fools game.
How do you know? It seemed obvious to me that I should get out in 2008 at the start of the meltdown. It saved me several hundreds of thousands of dollars. Pros make moves every day based on speculation and we pay them to do so on our behalf. We are supposed to pay investment 'experts" to make these moves, but if we do so ourselves it is called timing the market and derided as foolish. We are told two things by the experts that are diametrically in opposition to each other, but you buy into both.
How do I know? There are decades of data to back up the fact that timing the market is foolish. Amateurs, like yourself, who try to do so usually lose money over the long term. Leave it to the pros (though there's no guarantees there).
What the eff do the pros know? If you want to buy and hold no matter what is going on and think that is the intelligent way to do things in a bubble economy, be my guest. Personally I am not a big fan of losing 50% of the value of my investments in a month's time as we saw on 2008 -- or 25% per year for three straight years as we saw in 2000-2002. And I did not due to my foolish timing of the market
Quite simply, the pros know more than you do. That's why they're pros.