grow grapes
grow grapes
Boycott grapes
Barbisol
It would appear that fake Igy is back.
Stock futures pointed Wednesday to a slight pullback for the Dow industrials, but gains for tech stocks as investors begin winding down a holiday-shortened week.
"Reduced liquidity and limited economic data ahead of the Easter holiday period should ease volatility until the middle of next week," said Nour Al-Hammoury, chief market strategist at ADS Securities, in a note to clients.
Good article for those that understand denial is not a river in Egypt.
The NIRP Hail Mary:
http://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-nirp-hail-mary/
By the way Boycott Igy.
Oh, that's me, sorry.
Igy
Denial is a river in Egypt. Helicopter money:
Igy
Real Igy speaking here, looks like the "gap" between GAAP and non-GAAP earnings continues to be a topic. Who could have predicted that? This one from Motley Fool:
Igy
"We have urged...that companies take a very hard look at what you are doing with your non-GAAP measures. We have a lot of concern in that space."
-SEC Chairman Mary Jo White
From MarketWatch:
Igy
econ news:
Mortgage apps continue to weaken: -3.3% m/m
but still +25% y/y
new home sales are fine: +2.2% y/y
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
POTO,
Perhaps the next bear market will see the return of Cramer versus Leonard the Monkey. Or another featured mea culpa by Cramer on bubble vision.
One of my indicators for the next bull market will be the fading popularity of the Najerian brothers or perhaps just a haircut will do.
Igy
I think Cramer is an idiot, just like Stockman. I just posted that link as a counter to yours. They're both just saying what they think their followers want to hear. That's how the make their money. Hopefully you see through the hype.
The Productivity Paradox
GDP/EPS growth appears higher than statisticians are measuring it, because the trend in technology innovation is not being measured properly compared to 10 years ago:
http://www.goldmansachs.com/our-thinking/pages/the-productivity-paradox.html
If this is correct, then the market is NOT overvalued.
POTO,
I do. One example is the advertisement for the Najerian option book for free! Of course you pay shipping and handling. I do believe that Stockman's views are more aligned with what is really going on in the market.
Igy
Be careful putting all of your eggs into Stockman's basket. Think about the quote attributed to Mark Twain at the beginning of "The Big Short":
"It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so."
Stockman has a record of being a fraud and flat out wrong about the market. It's just like Schiff, Hussman, and several other village idiots: If you listened to them in 2009, you would not have to worry about protecting profits because you would not have been in the market in the 5th largest bull market of all time.
Who is the bigger fool: The fool or the fool that listens to the fool?
POTO,
Thanks for the quote and the advice. There is plenty of evidence beyond sources like David Stockman that the markets are distorted. Many who post here chose to ignore them. Some of those sources are from inside our government such as an earlier citation today from Mary Jo white, the Chair of the SEC which I quoted a few posts back.
I will end with my own quote from Mark Twain: "Common sense is uncommon."
Igy
coach d,
Good piece from Goldman, but I would be more inclined to support the view of Robert Gordon. As he stated: "Many consumer benefits are clearly missing from GDP statistics. But GDP has always suffered from this fault. For example, GDP completely failed to capture the transition from the horse to the motorcar...."
I can't help but feel the Jan Hatzius view is more of the genre that "this time is different" which often gives rise to the greatest number of fools.
Igy
From the Treasury Department, Office of Financial Research report "Quicksilver Markets" written by Ted Berg:
"Although no two market cycles are exactly the same, history provides import-ant lessons in interpreting trends and outliers. The trade-off of excluding large portions of history because of imperfect data is loss of perspective. In particular, during financial booms, analysts extrapolate record profit margins far into the future, ignoring history and the forces of mean reversion."
Igy
coach d wrote:
The Productivity Paradox
GDP/EPS growth appears higher than statisticians are measuring it, because the trend in technology innovation is not being measured properly compared to 10 years ago:
http://www.goldmansachs.com/our-thinking/pages/the-productivity-paradox.htmlIf this is correct, then the market is NOT overvalued.
interesting piece. I've been wondering about that paradox.
I thought it might have to do with social networking - it has sure made me a lot less productive. But maybe it is not accurately measured.
the VIX is all the way back down to its standard very low status.
amazing how quickly the markets came back.
I still think it was sovereign wealth funds of petrostates throwing everything over the side, and then the computers exaggerating the slide, trading on momentum rather than fundamentals.
then when oil started rising again, the sovereign wealth funds could stop selling.