Ghost of Igloi wrote:
The economy is mired in a low growth environment, and the Federal Reserve has pulled away the punch bowl.
Life support has been removed, but the body is still breathing!
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
The economy is mired in a low growth environment, and the Federal Reserve has pulled away the punch bowl.
Life support has been removed, but the body is still breathing!
Life support removed, family let the economy die naturally without artificial aides,
By your own admission, there's "slow growth".
I don't need your f-----g life support, but my friends are dying!
Contagion is still the issue.
Big,
You are correct.
You will have to excuse me, I was just trying to be funny.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Lemons,
Sorry that is so untrue. But I really could care less what you think.
Igy
Thanks for caring.
agip, you sound like the glass-half-full, small-picture version of this guy:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-26/das-why-you-can-expect-another-global-stock-market-meltdown
Have a good weekend everyone. Do some running!
Maserati,
My views are more similar to your citation. In fact in manyways it mirrors the 2015 Annual Report of the Office of Financial Research in the Department of Treasury. Below is a summary with a link to the full report.
http://conversableeconomist.blogspot.com/2016/01/financial-risks-views-from-office-of.html
The risk are real, the data is there, but only a few are not blind.
Igy
Actually there are quite a few with the same outlook; maybe even a majority.
Igy, one of the things that bothers me most is the constant fudging, and lack of accountability...fudging values as in CoCos to make it look as though the regulators are achieving their goals, while not requiring reserves on swaps.
Yes, when things go south, the amounts paid out on swaps are negotiated, but still...
Most people don't realize how recent these things are, and how little time it has taken for it to get out of all reasonable scale.
I still haven't found out where in the world to settle things financially. Many people tell me many things, but the upshot is that the world has become a small place, if you want clean water and some semblance of rule of law.
These are amazing times.
BTW if anybody cares, they can check out 5.17 of the Basel III Capital Regulations:
https://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/content/pdfs/114BI010714LA.pdf
Now I KNOW you'll have a good weekend!
The numbers are fudged!
Maserati,
Thanks. My plans are for a 70 minute run in the foothills. We are getting a touch of spring with temperatures as high as the 60s. I go early in the morning with my buds so temperatures closer to 40. Have a good weekend too.
Igy
I'm hitting the pool tonight, and running tomorrow. Sunny and high 50's tomorrow afternoon!
Here's a guy in Marquette who is channelling Igy on Zerohedge:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-26/peak-stupidity-where-we-go-here
There it is, Igy's argument in a nutshell...with graphics!!!
Maserati,
Very good article that all who post here should read. Do so to avoid "Peak Stupidy."
Igy
The stock market is simply an asset with some intrinsic value based on an expectation of future free cash flows to equity holders.
All you need to know right there. The market goes up (like this week) because investors think better days are ahead. It goes down when they believe trouble is ahead.
Big,
No, what you need to know, is which you either failed to read, or intentionally left out:
"What we find is that while the current valuation of expected future free cash flows to equity holders (i.e. market cap of Wilshire) has increased by some 55% since the end of 2011, the actual free cash flows of US corporations have only increased by 4%."
Just think how much earnings would have to increase to justify the current lofty equity valuations. For an additional source read the 2015 Annual Report from the Office of Financial Research (12/15/2015), Department of the Treasury, chapter two.
Igy
Your post does not discount what I wrote.
Big,
I disagree, the market has gone down since last spring because earning have been falling. The market went up this week because institutions were riding each others trades. The Efficient Market Hypothesis is a neat and convenient theory but divorced from the reality of fundamental reasons of price and cash flow.
Igy