Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Short term predictability yes. There are several valuations models that have around 90% predictability over longer time horizons: Tobin's Q, Market cap/Gross Value Added, Shiller CAPE 10, and the Buffett Indicator.
except for the inconvenient fact that if you followed the Buffet indicator you would have been out of the market for the last 20 years. During which the Dow went from 4,000 to 17,000
Igy come on - the Buffet has no predictive ability except maybe when it spikes up, indicating a mania.