I am not trying to make an enemy, but more to make a point. Many in our profession are more than willing to accept the predictions of Dr. Kelley or some other Wall Street analyst. Why, because it is easy to accept conventional thinking and it eliiminates the need to challenge the conventional. How is Dr. Kelley better than I? The typical Wall Steet call is to multiply the previous years call by 10% and make it their target. I am sorry, but after seven years of this they reach the law of large numbers. The earnings numbers JPM quotes as fact are estimates and far from actual reported earnings. Look for yourself there is a spreadsheet on the S&P site. Most advisors, present company excluded of course, are too lazy to look them up.
You look at a median valuation of the CAPE 10 and extrapolate that is the future. You ignore Robert Shiller, the author of CAPE 10, feels the market is extremely overvalued (I posted this as well). Tobin's Q and the Buffett Indicator are near two standard deviations above the norm. I find it hard to see why you and so many others cannot see the challenges we face after a tripling of the S&P 500. Do you believe that we continue to grow the market in the face of what will be higher interest rates and near full employment? Do you believe that a China rebalance, falling commodities and energy do not signal something amiss? How 'bout them central banks and all their accommodation yet economic growth is at stall speed? Yet our market and bonds are at record high. Do you not see the contradiction here? Icahn, Bill Gross, John Hussman, Jeremy Grantham, John Bogel, Sam Zell, Rick Santelli, to name a few see the contradiction. These are all serious people with reputations few can match.