Down goes the Dow

Down nearly 300 points for the day.

Odd that there would be so much movement in a day that the entire Northeast USA is not working

for the record, some interesting cross currents today - europe was up, oil was up, some emerging market stocks were up, US small caps were down only half the amount of big caps. and after the close apple, wdc, yhoo and T had some good numbers - the SP is up 0.6% after hours, which is unusual - that large a move is unusual that is.

could be a nice up day tomorrow

0.06% according to my fuzzy math.

nice editorial today in the WSJ on unemployment benefits - it points out that there was a surge in employment after congress stopped the super extended unemployment benefits. Meaning, when people finally lost their benefits, that's when they had to actually go find a job. So they did find a job. The republicans were right on this one.

I am deeply conflicted on unemployment benefits - there is no question that they delay people's effort to get a new job. But they also keep people from being evicted. Difficult decisions.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/president-costanzas-jobs-boom-1422404392

In a 1994 “Seinfeld” episode, George realizes that “every decision that I have ever made in my entire life has been wrong. My life is the complete opposite of everything I want it to be.” Jerry replies: “If every instinct you have is wrong, then the opposite would have to be right.”

So Costanza approaches a gorgeous woman in the coffee shop and announces, “My name is George. I’m unemployed and I live with my parents.” To his surprise, she’s interested. He lands a job with the Yankees after insulting George Steinbrenner.

Maybe President Obama ought to take Jerry’s advice too. That’s our reading of a striking new economic study that examines Congress’s decision to zero out extra unemployment benefits last year.

The authors find that this abrupt policy shift created some 1.8 million jobs, or slightly more than three of five net positions filled in 2014. The cuts also pulled a million workers who dropped out of the labor force back into the workplace. This reality happens to be the opposite of what Mr. Obama and other liberal sachems predicted.

When did Congress stopd the super extended unemployment benefits? I can't afford a WSJ subscription?

Randy Oldman wrote:

When did Congress stopd the super extended unemployment benefits? I can't afford a WSJ subscription?

it was at the end of 2013 I think, and then it took a year to take effect across different states.

you can usually work around the WSJ paywall - just keep googling the headline of the story - eventually it will let you in via some link.

So another VIX spike - up to 22 or so as we speak - this isn't science, but if the pattern continues, there won't be too much more downside here. So buying might make some sense if you are waiting.

For the record, the US is down just 4.3% from its all time highs.

but the trading range is starting to bite - we are getting close to the 200 day moving average in the US - if we go 2% or more below that it will likely cause some more selling.

the rest of the world is already well below the 200 day of course.

Randy Oldman wrote:

When did Congress stopd the super extended unemployment benefits? I can't afford a WSJ subscription?

The Dow is shedding points like a meth addict sheds teeth.

VIX back up to 23 - if the pattern continues, we won't see too much more downside in the US

interestingly, europe and emerging markets up up solidly today - only the US is down. So those people who piled out of europe and into the US are losers and the contrarians who bought europe while the US was roaring are doing well.

today, anyway.

Pretty much the same pattern as we've seen since July.

Randy Oldman wrote:

Pretty much the same pattern as we've seen since July.

ja - worked like clockwork that time. up around a percent from when the vix spiked this morning.

traders will arbitrage this way eventually, but they must be loving it right now.

Look out below wrote:

The Dow is shedding points like a meth addict sheds teeth.

Dow up on Exxon results resulting from reduced secret funding anti global-warming research.

Bit of a troll there.

Checked in on the "2 minute portfolio" again today. First month of the year pretty good results. TSX is up 3.5% since 5 January, slightly modified version of the 2MP is up 7.0%, to 2 Feb.

Nice 300 point + gain today.

random canuck wrote:

Checked in on the "2 minute portfolio" again today. First month of the year pretty good results. TSX is up 3.5% since 5 January, slightly modified version of the 2MP is up 7.0%, to 2 Feb.

nice

I use some quant funds like that - mostly the Hennessy group of funds, based on Jim O'Shaughnessy's quant work. They have indeed beaten the SP 500 over 15 years, but with a large amount of volatility. HFCGX and HFCVX. I'm not recommending them - they have some clear and deep flaws.

Usually what works on paper doesn't work so well with real money but quant strategies are so bloody tempting.

So that was quite a rally - the US is back to roughly even for the year to date. The fun part is that the beaten up stuff roared - greece up 13%, oil up 3%, etc.

Nice but probably just moving back toward the top of teh trading range. Maybe I'll do some selling in my trading account when we get right up to the top of the range.

Should be a good finish to the week.

the fact that the stock market is not plummeting is very bullish, I think

ukraine is blowing up

greece is going to brinkmanship

china is slowing

oil has crashed

signs from around the world of slowing economies

god knows what else

but here we are, stocks floating along, daisies on the river.

which tells me that there is a massive amount of strength in the uS economy right now - supertanker america - once it gets going it is hard to turn it.

what a machine this country is. amazing stuff.

Yup, an all time high for US stocks. amazing stuff.

every index is different right now - I'm just using VTI as a proxy.

I wonder how much the OP has missed out on waiting for the big correction of below 13,000? I guess his string of smart moves ended.