Ghost of Igloi wrote:
wondering wrote:
I thought you bought XLE. What did you buy that is up 25% in three weeks?
TECS and SPXS, sold it all last week and Monday.
Damn, you had to do some digging for those.
Go Pats!
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
wondering wrote:
I thought you bought XLE. What did you buy that is up 25% in three weeks?
TECS and SPXS, sold it all last week and Monday.
Damn, you had to do some digging for those.
Go Pats!
Not really.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
wondering wrote:
I thought you bought XLE. What did you buy that is up 25% in three weeks?
TECS and SPXS, sold it all last week and Monday.
I don’t recall you saying you had bought those.
Market futures have been on a roller coaster ride overnight mirroring Biden’s changing odds of winning. Clearly the markets want a new president.
Other guy wrote:
Good 1st 2 days this week.
For my own piece of mind, I sold all my Covid stock (made @ $190k on a $200k investment this year) and ditto on Nio stock (made @ $11k on an $80k investment in two weeks or so).
Will view the next 3 days and then decide what to do.
Meant Tesla stock, not Covid. Got the damned must wear masks outside in MA nonsense on my mind.
Probably should have waited to today's opening to sell per what is happening in the after hours market...but, all in all, am good with being out.
This election mess will not be resolve any time soon it seems. Which will probably tank the market to some extent. Trump victory is quite possible in the end -- and the market may not like that
QQQ up almost 4%
add that to a high vix and kaboom huge rally.
Prolly the anti-trust threat against big tech has ended.
agip wrote:
QQQ up almost 4%
add that to a high vix and kaboom huge rally.
Prolly the anti-trust threat against big tech has ended.
Possibly, and I'll admit that's a good thought, but I'm not sure if that was a legitimate specter to begin with. The big jump is more likely just usual 2020 goings on I think.
agip wrote:
QQQ up almost 4%
add that to a high vix and kaboom huge rally.
Prolly the anti-trust threat against big tech has ended.
Cem Karsan @jam_croissant
1/x So, there you have it all those months of anticipation and speculation and what do we get? The most feared outcome a possible Biden/Red Senate + a contested outcome. & does it matter? NO.... what matters? Just like Brexit. Just like 2016.... THE REFLEXIVITY OF VOL.People will
2/x prognosticate & retroactively try & attribute fundamental reasons for the move in order to rationalize the market reaction, just like during Brexit & 2016, but they will all fall flat....Yet people will accept them anyway & move on, managing their money by speculating about
3/4 fundamentals. When we have said here all along, this move was inevitable..The answer is participants were largely hedged & with the curve in backwardation, dealers are decaying shorter deltas and longer Ivols. So they must sell Vol & buy deltas. It comes down to Supply/Demand
4/4 Never lose sight of the flows... NEVER BET AGAINST, ‘GARY.’
1/x In my1st year in the pits of Chicago, I quickly learned a favorite pastime of idle traders on a Friday w/nothing trading was to create a humorously absurd challenge for someone on the floor to undertake & then coax the entire trading apparatus into action betting on outcomes.
2/x By the time the challenge had fully taken hold, there would be hedge funds in London & banks in Paris taking positions on whether or not ‘John’s’ Clerk ‘Gary’could eat 150 Chicken McNuggets in 60 min..Early on I would look at Gary, look at some online research & place a wager
3/x But after a few months, it became clear you always wanted to bet on ‘Gary.’ or ‘Mary’, regardless of how crazy or ridiculous the challenge, because, invariably, ‘Gary’ was offered some portion of the winnings of the bets for him to encourage him to compete in the 1st place.
4/x You see, the bets being placed weren’t like tornado insurance, where the outcome was completely independent of the security. They were like Options on the market...People like to refer to options as market ‘insurance,’ but the problem with this analogy is that it fails to
5/x contemplate the crucial fact that market ‘insurance’ itself is critically, reflexively involved in the probabilities of its own outcomes...& so it is that, when people are all hedged, market events tend not to realize, & when they are not they tend to. Hence Brexit Hence 2016
6/6 So, I ask you, this election season, are people hedged? Are people worried? Do you want to bet on ‘Gary’ or against him?? I’ve learned the hard way, you don’t bet against Gary, no matter how absurd the challenge may seem...
I am tempted to sell into this rally and buy back when Drumpf shows signs of life. Heck my UNH is up almost 10% already.
Also, betting on voting results bothers me. Yes we bet with our investment picks, but holy man, what a motivation to perpetrate fraud outright betting provides.
Punter wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
TECS and SPXS, sold it all last week and Monday.
I don’t recall you saying you had bought those.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
I would much rather own TECS here.
Punter wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
TECS and SPXS, sold it all last week and Monday.
I don’t recall you saying you had bought those.
That’s because he didn’t. He’s just telling more lies.
The resiliency of the market and its ability to bounce back from significant losses is just stunning. The Nasdaq is up what - 7% in the last 2 days? The Dow up up almost as much as well. The market takes some punches but comes back swinging. DO NOT sell your equities!
Johannes wrote:
Punter wrote:
I don’t recall you saying you had bought those.
That’s because he didn’t. He’s just telling more lies.
Look at these charts for TECS and SPXS - Igy chose his "purchase date" of about 3 weeks ago. That was when both were at their Lows. Come on Igy - you can't make up dates!
https://search.yahoo.com/search;_ylt=AwrEwhEj66Jfzt4Ay0dXNyoA;_ylc=X1MDMjc2NjY3OQRfcgMyBGZyA3lmcC10BGZyMgNzYi10b3AEZ3ByaWQDY1lzRk5EUjhSVmFKS0xLOGFHZDdMQQRuX3JzbHQDMARuX3N1Z2cDMTAEb3JpZ2luA3NlYXJjaC55YWhvby5jb20EcG9zAzAEcHFzdHIDBHBxc3RybAMwBHFzdHJsAzQEcXVlcnkDc3B4cwR0X3N0bXADMTYwNDUxMjYyMA--?p=spxs&fr2=sb-top&fr=yfp-t&fp=1https://search.yahoo.com/search;_ylt=AwrJ6y1t66Jf8MAAL2pXNyoA;_ylc=X1MDMjc2NjY3OQRfcgMyBGZyA3lmcC10BGZyMgNzYS1ncC1zZWFyY2gEZ3ByaWQDOTcwMmpjVnZSNnVNNGpZUGkxbXlXQQRuX3JzbHQDMARuX3N1Z2cDOQRvcmlnaW4Dc2VhcmNoLnlhaG9vLmNvbQRwb3MDMQRwcXN0cgN0ZWNzBHBxc3RybAM0BHFzdHJsAzQEcXVlcnkDdGVjcwR0X3N0bXADMTYwNDUxMjc0NQR1c2VfY2FzZQM-?p=tecs&fr2=sa-gp-search&fr=yfp-t&fp=1Select 1 month and go back to October 12th for both. That is the low for both of these.
And they are NOT UP 25% unless Igy bought both at their absolute lows 3 weeks ago and sold at their absolute high less than 3 weeks ago - because both have fallen a lot in the last few days.
j-wo wrote:
Polls continue to give the Dems a 74% chance of gaining control of the Senate.
Did not happen
Das Unkle wrote:
j-wo wrote:
Polls continue to give the Dems a 74% chance of gaining control of the Senate.
Did not happen
This is actually probably the worst case scenario for the market - Biden takes the White House but Republicans keep the Senate. That would make a comprehensive bailout package much harder to obtain as we basically just go right back into gridlock mode on where to spend. Markets won't like that since they're addicted to bailout money like it's crack
Racket wrote:
Das Unkle wrote:
Did not happen
This is actually probably the worst case scenario for the market - Biden takes the White House but Republicans keep the Senate. That would make a comprehensive bailout package much harder to obtain as we basically just go right back into gridlock mode on where to spend. Markets won't like that since they're addicted to bailout money like it's crack
Markets hate uncertainty. Having Biden as president and a Senate republican-majority brings certainty. Maybe gridlock but certainty trumps uncertainty.
Sally Vix wrote:
Racket wrote:
This is actually probably the worst case scenario for the market - Biden takes the White House but Republicans keep the Senate. That would make a comprehensive bailout package much harder to obtain as we basically just go right back into gridlock mode on where to spend. Markets won't like that since they're addicted to bailout money like it's crack
Markets hate uncertainty. Having Biden as president and a Senate republican-majority brings certainty. Maybe gridlock but certainty trumps uncertainty.
Another bailout was a certainty. If Biden wins and the literal plague of the Earth that is the Republican party holds the Senate then it will either not happen or be so watered down that it might as well not have happened.
Go back under your rock
Sally Vix wrote:
Sally Vix wrote:
Select 1 month and go back to October 12th for both. That is the low for both of these.
And they are NOT UP 25% unless Igy bought both at their absolute lows 3 weeks ago and sold at their absolute high less than 3 weeks ago - because both have fallen a lot in the last few days.
First off, I am not a lone wolf in believing Tech was grossly overvalued, just last week David Einhorn said he believed September was a cyclical high. Second, I traded in and out of the positions with large sums of money. Third, I could care less if you believe me or not.