Down goes the Dow

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Racket wrote:

Thinking about going significantly in on MSFT. Only way I'm gonna be able to buy a house in the next 5 years is if I can 10x my savings through good 'ol American equities, just like God intended.

No worries to that plan:

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/MSFT/microsoft/stock-price-history

Not sure what this is trying to imply here but thanks

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Huh?

Nailed it!

Racket wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

No worries to that plan:

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/MSFT/microsoft/stock-price-history

Not sure what this is trying to imply here but thanks

Not a good bet. Highly levered company. It will be one of the worst investments over the next five years.

“Wages as a share of the U.S. economy are near their lowest level since the Federal Reserve began collecting such data in the 1940s. Meanwhile, the Economic Policy Institute estimates that CEO compensation has grown more than 900% over the past four decades, compared with just 12% for the typical worker.

That trend has been fueled by institutional shareholders, who since the 2008 crash have pushed companies to link pay with performance—most often judged by stock prices. It has effectively created an environment where almost no amount for a single individual is too large as long as the stock keeps going up.“

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Racket wrote:

Not sure what this is trying to imply here but thanks

Not a good bet. Highly levered company. It will be one of the worst investments over the next five years.

I bought MSFT during the early March dip. Now up 34%.

Big Dog Investments wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Not a good bet. Highly levered company. It will be one of the worst investments over the next five years.

I bought MSFT during the early March dip. Now up 34%.

Nice!

I bought MSFT several times, and my unrealized gain at this point is 106%, As i recollect, I posted on here the first time i starting buying, noting i like how they were moving heavily into cloud computing, and i was criticized for it.

Some among us felt that carrying debt in a time when interest rates were effectively zero was cause for concern.

seattle prattle wrote:

Big Dog Investments wrote:

I bought MSFT during the early March dip. Now up 34%.

Nice!

I bought MSFT several times, and my unrealized gain at this point is 106%, As i recollect, I posted on here the first time i starting buying, noting i like how they were moving heavily into cloud computing, and i was criticized for it.

Some among us felt that carrying debt in a time when interest rates were effectively zero was cause for concern.

I also like the move in cloud computing and Azure is a superior product to AWS. That's mostly because Microsoft knows what they're doing whereas Amazon is glorified computer landlord (and I despise landlords). The upcoming XBox is already widely rumored to be superior to the upcoming PS5 and I think there will be some gain there as well.

Racket wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:

Nice!

I bought MSFT several times, and my unrealized gain at this point is 106%, As i recollect, I posted on here the first time i starting buying, noting i like how they were moving heavily into cloud computing, and i was criticized for it.

Some among us felt that carrying debt in a time when interest rates were effectively zero was cause for concern.

I also like the move in cloud computing and Azure is a superior product to AWS. That's mostly because Microsoft knows what they're doing whereas Amazon is glorified computer landlord (and I despise landlords). The upcoming XBox is already widely rumored to be superior to the upcoming PS5 and I think there will be some gain there as well.

I don't doubt any of that, but what Amazon has excelled at is packaging their brand into a unified user experience that defies expectation. I don't focus on the parts - sure, they probably lean on the companies they rep on their site while still giving them access to an unequaled and incredible scalable marketing vehicle - but on their vision and execution at creating a seamless shopping experience starting with a bulletproof credit card system, incredibly fast low cost shipping, and remarkable dependability. The shipping/warehousing network alone is quite a feat. I simply think it is shortsighted to underestimate the empire they created out of thin air and how well it is tied together.

Microsoft is simply a very bluechip tech company that knows their business better than anybody. So is Apple, for that matter.

You are just biting into the apple of the biggest bubble ever. There is no V-shape recovery. Today 71,000 new Covid-19 cases. The Fed can influence the mania of this bubble, but not the other side. Big time pay back, and it won’t be pretty. Just being honest, but hope it works for you.

'At 31 times forecast earnings, the Nasdaq 100 is trading at the highest multiple since 2004. By most traditional absolute measures, the index’s valuation is extreme.'

https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-09/bleak-message-of-economic-pain-underlies-tech-s-market-dominance

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

You are just biting into the apple of the biggest bubble ever. There is no V-shape recovery. Today 71,000 new Covid-19 cases. The Fed can influence the mania of this bubble, but not the other side. Big time pay back, and it won’t be pretty. Just being honest, but hope it works for you.

'At 31 times forecast earnings, the Nasdaq 100 is trading at the highest multiple since 2004. By most traditional absolute measures, the index’s valuation is extreme.'

https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-09/bleak-message-of-economic-pain-underlies-tech-s-market-dominance

I agree things are overvalued right now, but new cases of covid aren't really much of a concern. When you plot new cases per day vs covid deaths per day, the graph looks like an X with cases rising and deaths falling. I'd link to the source, but it's a WSJ article that's behind a paywall.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

You are just biting into the apple of the biggest bubble ever. There is no V-shape recovery. Today 71,000 new Covid-19 cases. The Fed can influence the mania of this bubble, but not the other side. Big time pay back, and it won’t be pretty. Just being honest, but hope it works for you.

'At 31 times forecast earnings, the Nasdaq 100 is trading at the highest multiple since 2004. By most traditional absolute measures, the index’s valuation is extreme.'

https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-09/bleak-message-of-economic-pain-underlies-tech-s-market-dominance

You’ve been saying the same thing for years. Meanwhile the market is substantially higher than when you first started your Chicken Little schtick. Don’t you ever get tired of being wrong?

Punter wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

You are just biting into the apple of the biggest bubble ever. There is no V-shape recovery. Today 71,000 new Covid-19 cases. The Fed can influence the mania of this bubble, but not the other side. Big time pay back, and it won’t be pretty. Just being honest, but hope it works for you.

'At 31 times forecast earnings, the Nasdaq 100 is trading at the highest multiple since 2004. By most traditional absolute measures, the index’s valuation is extreme.'

https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-09/bleak-message-of-economic-pain-underlies-tech-s-market-dominance

You’ve been saying the same thing for years. Meanwhile the market is substantially higher than when you first started your Chicken Little schtick. Don’t you ever get tired of being wrong?

Oh how Detector Dude forgets his “kissing his as good bye” a few short months ago.

“kissing his assets good bye”.....?

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

You are just biting into the apple of the biggest bubble ever. There is no V-shape recovery. Today 71,000 new Covid-19 cases. The Fed can influence the mania of this bubble, but not the other side. Big time pay back, and it won’t be pretty. Just being honest, but hope it works for you.

'At 31 times forecast earnings, the Nasdaq 100 is trading at the highest multiple since 2004. By most traditional absolute measures, the index’s valuation is extreme.'

https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-09/bleak-message-of-economic-pain-underlies-tech-s-market-dominance

It seems like you're just married to the idea of the stock market being like it was in the 50s and 60s when returns were absolute dog sh!t and companies traded at P/E ratios of like 2.

Times have changed Igy.

Racket wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

You are just biting into the apple of the biggest bubble ever. There is no V-shape recovery. Today 71,000 new Covid-19 cases. The Fed can influence the mania of this bubble, but not the other side. Big time pay back, and it won’t be pretty. Just being honest, but hope it works for you.

'At 31 times forecast earnings, the Nasdaq 100 is trading at the highest multiple since 2004. By most traditional absolute measures, the index’s valuation is extreme.'

https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-09/bleak-message-of-economic-pain-underlies-tech-s-market-dominance

It seems like you're just married to the idea of the stock market being like it was in the 50s and 60s when returns were absolute dog sh!t and companies traded at P/E ratios of like 2.

Times have changed Igy.

That is not true or an accurate interpretation of the market vis-a-vis valuations. As recently as 2013 the S&P 500 was trading at one-half of the projected 2020 PE. Not exactly ancient history, and that metric couple be applied to MSFT as well. Five years ago MSFT had considerably less debt before the acquisition of Linked In, the binge buying of stock, and increasing dividend payouts. Most who post here want to justify excessive valuations on metrics that lack any validation other than a market rise. Bubbles do that. If you pay attention to the language of Wall Street they couch their narrative in “relative value,” or “yield versus bond,” or “Fed support to Markets.” Rarely do you hear honesty that excessive valuations has led to poor investor returns throughout history. Of course that is bad for business. So keep buying their product. No different than “In the Kitchen With David” on QVC. He’ll sell you Christmas in July, then exercise equipment, and Nutri-Systems in August.

Just STOP with this valuations obsession of yours. I’m not saying they are completely meaningless, but they don’t deserve the importance that you assign to them. You just need to take an objective view of recent market history to see that. But you seem to have a Trumpian aversion to admitting you are wrong. Everyone sees it but you.

Igy, and speaking of that market rise, every "bubble" we've had in the last 25 years has recovered and gone on to set new highs. What is to be learned from this? It would seem that what is to be learned is that in this lifetime at least, the markets have fundamentally changed and valuations need to be re-assessed based on a new baselines, and valuations are most likely only one of several pertinent metrics on which to gauge stock market performance.

Of course, you could refer back to previous lifetimes, but i think we can all see the folly in that.

S&P 500 Index Return 3/2000 through 3/2020 3%, with dividends reinvested 5%. Bond like returns. Why not the enthusiasm for bonds? I believe the year-to-date return for 10-30 Treasury is considerably superior to the S&P 500. Market is propped up by mega cap tech bubble. We’ll see how long that lasts when the V-shaped recovery is proven to be another Wall Street fairytale.