Powell avoiding answering the Fed worrying about blowing a stock market bubble question. Of course any honest answer would be “sure.”
TIPS are starting to predict an inflation spike. Prices of TIPS are going vertical.
We'd expect an inflation spike as trillions of new money starts getting spent.
An inflation spike is usually countered by a sharp rise in rates at the Fed. But they can't do that now.
So one possible outcome here is an inflation spiral. Which wouldn't be the worst thing...would reduce the debt. But inflation is hard on a nation - people stop trusting the currency.
OR
The Fed reverses itself and insists on fighting inflation. Raising rates, slamming on the brakes and throwing the economy into probably recession. That would crush, crush the stock market.
bizarre day...
the SPX is down 0.25%
The equal weight SP500 is down 2.2%.
Tech is through the roof...everything else is down quite a bit.
Throwing money at AMZN and Apple can go on for a long time.
Banks, real estate and oil down 4-5%
agip wrote:
So one possible outcome here is an inflation spiral. Which wouldn't be the worst thing...would reduce the debt. But inflation is hard on a nation - people stop trusting the currency.
Inflating our way out of this problem was the original plan I believe, so I don't think this is too much of an issue yet. As for people not trusting USD -- lol, good one agip.
Racket wrote:
agip wrote:
So one possible outcome here is an inflation spiral. Which wouldn't be the worst thing...would reduce the debt. But inflation is hard on a nation - people stop trusting the currency.
Inflating our way out of this problem was the original plan I believe, so I don't think this is too much of an issue yet. As for people not trusting USD -- lol, good one agip.
not sure how old you are, but the high inflation periods of the 70s were very bad.
fiat currency is trusted until it isn't. inflation is the main reason it isn't.
but it's a spectrum of course...I'm not predicting the end of the USD as reserve currency. But our country is on everyone's sh/tlist right now so they aren't necessarily going to trust us to be good stewards of their dollars.
Article above from Stephen Roach (former head of Morgan Stanley Asia, now Yale professor) worth a read (on dollar drop threat).
agip wrote:
Racket wrote:
Inflating our way out of this problem was the original plan I believe, so I don't think this is too much of an issue yet. As for people not trusting USD -- lol, good one agip.
not sure how old you are, but the high inflation periods of the 70s were very bad.
fiat currency is trusted until it isn't. inflation is the main reason it isn't.
but it's a spectrum of course...I'm not predicting the end of the USD as reserve currency. But our country is on everyone's sh/tlist right now so they aren't necessarily going to trust us to be good stewards of their dollars.
I didn't mean 10-15% inflation was gonna be good, c'mon man. A little bit, as you said above, might not be the worst thing here though
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Article above from Stephen Roach (former head of Morgan Stanley Asia, now Yale professor) worth a read (on dollar drop threat).
A good rule in life is never to listen to Stephen Roach.
I remember him preaching doom for decades. Tens of thousands of Dow points.
Seriously Igy...your listening and giving us only permabear cites is not doing anyone any favors.
Tesla over $1000 per share, all time high
Was around $214 a year ago.
was around $427 in March.
mania for big tech names.
agip wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Article above from Stephen Roach (former head of Morgan Stanley Asia, now Yale professor) worth a read (on dollar drop threat).
A good rule in life is never to listen to Stephen Roach.
I remember him preaching doom for decades. Tens of thousands of Dow points.
Seriously Igy...your listening and giving us only permabear cites is not doing anyone any favors.
You totally forget how you felt two months ago. The market needed $Trillions to get here and you think it is OK.
By the way, Stephen Roach was positive on China before you were in the business.
agip wrote:
Tesla over $1000 per share, all time high
Was around $214 a year ago.
was around $427 in March.
mania for big tech names.
It'll be interesting to see how they hold up over the next few years against VW's foray into the electric vehicle market. I'm not convinced they'll handle that competition well. Could be an interesting case study in the making.
[quote]agip wrote:
[quote]Racket wrote:
[quote]agip wrote:
not sure how old you are, but the high inflation periods of the 70s were very bad.
Yeah. I remember getting like 14% (more?) on my money market
agip wrote:
Tesla over $1000 per share, all time high
Was around $214 a year ago.
was around $427 in March.
mania for big tech names.
IT's funny how a bad thing can get turned into a good one. I used the big sell off of late 2018 to back out of small cap and when the market bottomed by January, 2019, transitioned into Tech instead. Have done that ever since.
Nasdaq/Tech surging and S&P 500 and Russell 2000 dropping in the last week or two I thought might actually be a conservative move by the market back into the bell-weather stocks and out of the rebound play. How ever you explain, it has been astounding.
Sold a small position in Southwest today before it was about to go negative on me, and bailed on some AMD just to break even on a trade i made weeks back. Otherwise have just been adding gradually and consistently to tech/Nasdaq 100 ETFs.
First house in 1979 11.9% interest rate and new car in 1981 17.9%. Money market was 5% in 1996. 7% fixed rate annuities in 1998.
agip wrote:
Tesla over $1000 per share, all time high
Was around $214 a year ago.
was around $427 in March.
mania for big tech names.
Bought Tesla at $590 something a couple of months ago..so have made @ 70% on it in a very short time.
Good thing.
The two airlines I bought last week have killed me so far.
Giles Corey wrote:
agip wrote:
Tesla over $1000 per share, all time high
Was around $214 a year ago.
was around $427 in March.
mania for big tech names.
Bought Tesla at $590 something a couple of months ago..so have made @ 70% on it in a very short time.
Good thing.
The two airlines I bought last week have killed me so far.
Caveate emptor:
https://twitter.com/robintrack/status/1270823748292222977Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Giles Corey wrote:
Bought Tesla at $590 something a couple of months ago..so have made @ 70% on it in a very short time.
Good thing.
The two airlines I bought last week have killed me so far.
Caveate emptor:
https://twitter.com/robintrack/status/1270823748292222977
What does the following mean? "Top increases in # users holding for stocks held by Robinhood" traders