-3 and -.27 is not so bad! Futures traders devastated.
-3 and -.27 is not so bad! Futures traders devastated.
Page 1987 of this thread. Flash crash alert.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Math man wrote:
At least someone is thinking.
But you really aren’t. That said, you would be wise to use your math skills to determine where this market is going. Hint: GAAP EPS times a realistic multiple.
If you had any math skills, you would know they cannot tell you where this market is going. This is one reason why Hussman’s calculations are considered voodoo mathematics by us thinkers.
You’re the guy getting rocked, not me. Why should I care what you think?
Klondike5 wrote:
Down to 14,850 from a peak of 15,700 I believe.
Maybe 5%
What's the bottom?
I am betting sub 13,000
We may actually get that sub 13,000 predicted in that first post.
Looks like Dow first crossed 18,000 in February 2015. Therefore gone back five years in short order.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Looks like Dow first crossed 18,000 in February 2015. Therefore gone back five years in short order.
Gee, and it only took a little world pandemic to do it. Imagine that.
I'm curious. Does anyone have a good ETF they recommend that has a focus on strong balance sheets.
I generally own individual stocks in a fund I have outside of my retirement accounts. With this Coronavirus crash and a healthy amount of cash I'm planning to buy stocks who will survive this crises and rebound on the other side. The plan is to buy gradually on the way down and price average in. However, with virtually all stocks down big, I don't have the time and money to chase all the opportunities. So I'm looking for funds that can serve as a one stop place to buy everything.
I'm buying the ETF OUSA. That is a rules based ETF created by CNBC's Kevin O'Leary. Even before this Coronavirus it was a fund I was interested in. The rules focus on capital preservation, strong free cash flow, paying a dividend, and diversity. Its not market cap weighted and no stock can be more than 5% of the fund. It sounds like a good fund to own in this environment. Problem is, if the fund is slavish to its own rules about paying a dividend, then its going to cut out a lot of great companies who are doing the responsible thing of suspending their dividend. I'm wary about how that works.
I could invest in the various S&P 500 sector funds. But I already use those for my retirement accounts. So I'm looking for other alternatives. And I stress companies with strong balance sheets who will remain relevant int he post Cornoavirus economy.
I welcome any ideas you guys have for ETFs.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
You’re the guy getting rocked, not me. Why should I care what you think?
You don’t know anything about me. If you did, then you really would care. Meanwhile you remain awash in your panic. Take another sedative.
seattle prattle wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Looks like Dow first crossed 18,000 in February 2015. Therefore gone back five years in short order.
Gee, and it only took a little world pandemic to do it. Imagine that.
Ridiculous valuations made it inevitable. Massive amounts of debt fueled unhinged speculation. Covid 19 made the decline steeper. We will break S&P 1,500, which will take the market back to 2000 levels. That will likely be an optimistic downside target.
Tension between trump & China reportedly at G20 meetings.
Math man wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
You’re the guy getting rocked, not me. Why should I care what you think?
You don’t know anything about me. If you did, then you really would care. Meanwhile you remain awash in your panic. Take another sedative.
I don’t take drugs.
This won't be another Great Depression, not even close. Fiat currency will be the savior here, as The Fed has no constraints in maintaining liquidity in capital and money markets. Fiscal and monetary policy is much harder to implement when 40% of each dollar must be backed by gold, gold which is simultaneously flowing out of the country - Great Depression
Eliud "Armstrong" Kipchoge wrote:
This won't be another Great Depression, not even close. Fiat currency will be the savior here, as The Fed has no constraints in maintaining liquidity in capital and money markets. Fiscal and monetary policy is much harder to implement when 40% of each dollar must be backed by gold, gold which is simultaneously flowing out of the country - Great Depression
This is just for you:
https://northmantrader.com/2020/03/23/1929-redux/I don't disagree with the implications of the Fed's balance sheet. I raised that question earlier with no responses. However, that guy is disingenuous at best. How exactly are we to expect a "sustained rally" with so much uncertainty still on the table?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
Gee, and it only took a little world pandemic to do it. Imagine that.
Ridiculous valuations made it inevitable.
Are you saying equity valuations spawned a virus that has led to a global pandemic?
No, ridiculous valuations make S&P 500 1,500 inevitable. Covid-19 was the bubble’s pin, and has accelerated a steep decline.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
No, ridiculous valuations make S&P 500 1,500 inevitable. Covid-19 was the bubble’s pin, and has accelerated a steep decline.
https://twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1242112633421119492
How is something totally external to the market a pin a that deflates a bubble? Bubbles deflate when every tries to cash in because they realize intrinsic forces in the market are no longer on their side.
This would be like a meteor hitting Earth and wiping out 20% of the work force and you in the corner going "Well I warned you all that valuations were too high."
That’s unfair to compare trump to a meteor destroying the Earth; he’s only destroying USA.