Good news is, we’ve even got the lazy Fed out of bed early to do some QE! No more bankers’ hours!
It’s a whole new paradigm.
Good news is, we’ve even got the lazy Fed out of bed early to do some QE! No more bankers’ hours!
It’s a whole new paradigm.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Math man wrote:
Hussman has been asked on Twitter numerous times to explain his calculations. Like you, he has avoided the question.
This and much more on his website. You don’t try very hard:
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/html/longterm.htm
Thanks for that, but there are some obvious issues with that calculation and it’s use. First, he is guessing at what what the dividend yield might be at some point in the future. That immediately scuttles the accuracy of the formulaic outcome. Secondly, his formula generates only a long term projection of dividend return. It does not account for the inevitable price changes of an equity. I think we can all agree that the latter is typically the main component behind total return, though dividends certainly contribute.
I haven’t heard anyone uttering the word capitulation yet, but I thought we were darn close last night with futures down 5% before the Fed did what it did
Math man wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
This and much more on his website. You don’t try very hard:
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/html/longterm.htmThanks for that, but there are some obvious issues with that calculation and it’s use. First, he is guessing at what what the dividend yield might be at some point in the future. That immediately scuttles the accuracy of the formulaic outcome. Secondly, his formula generates only a long term projection of dividend return. It does not account for the inevitable price changes of an equity. I think we can all agree that the latter is typically the main component behind total return, though dividends certainly contribute.
Well the price change of the S&P 500 over the past 20 years is below it’s average dividend yield of 2%. That price change is likely to be a negative number in coming weeks. So there you go.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Math man wrote:
Thanks for that, but there are some obvious issues with that calculation and it’s use. First, he is guessing at what what the dividend yield might be at some point in the future. That immediately scuttles the accuracy of the formulaic outcome. Secondly, his formula generates only a long term projection of dividend return. It does not account for the inevitable price changes of an equity. I think we can all agree that the latter is typically the main component behind total return, though dividends certainly contribute.
Well the price change of the S&P 500 over the past 20 years is below it’s average dividend yield of 2%. That price change is likely to be a negative number in coming weeks. So there you go.
What would you do without this narrative man. It's like you're existential bedrock
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Math man wrote:
Thanks for that, but there are some obvious issues with that calculation and it’s use. First, he is guessing at what what the dividend yield might be at some point in the future. That immediately scuttles the accuracy of the formulaic outcome. Secondly, his formula generates only a long term projection of dividend return. It does not account for the inevitable price changes of an equity. I think we can all agree that the latter is typically the main component behind total return, though dividends certainly contribute.
Well the price change of the S&P 500 over the past 20 years is below it’s average dividend yield of 2%. That price change is likely to be a negative number in coming weeks. So there you go.
Now you are doing the same thing as Hussman. You are making guesses with little basis in reality and using them to make a prediction about future returns. Like I said before, it is voodoo mathematics.
US stocks pulled out of a nosedive Monday and European markets trimmed losses after the US Federal Reserve committed itself to creating an unlimited amount of money to prevent the world's largest economy from plunging into a deep recession.
Where does unlimited money come from? The only place is a printing press. Time to kiss your savings goodbye in order to bail out big business.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/22/investing/dow-futures-limit-down-sunday/index.htmlToo much to do today, meetings all day. Hope to pick up end of day. Good luck to all
Market down nearly 4%.
Dow under 18,500.
A good day for this month
Math man wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Well the price change of the S&P 500 over the past 20 years is below it’s average dividend yield of 2%. That price change is likely to be a negative number in coming weeks. So there you go.
Now you are doing the same thing as Hussman. You are making guesses with little basis in reality and using them to make a prediction about future returns. Like I said before, it is voodoo mathematics.
Ha, ha, as if you are doing anything other than wishful thinking.
At Dow -900 intraday, here is some reading for everyone. It is old but interesting. Compare to today’s scenario, where the USD is the global reserve:
Don’t think it has a chapter on pandemics, professor.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Math man wrote:
Now you are doing the same thing as Hussman. You are making guesses with little basis in reality and using them to make a prediction about future returns. Like I said before, it is voodoo mathematics.
Ha, ha, as if you are doing anything other than wishful thinking.
At least someone is thinking.
the idiot wrote:
fisky wrote:. In any event like this, there's a bell curve of outcomes ranging from best case to most likely case to worst case.
Actually this is the key flawed assumption. Nothing in the markets varies as a bell curve, or normal distribution, which tapers exponentially on either side. Most metrics vary according to different probability distributions with so called fat tails, and deteriorate on one or both side may ch more slowly, with unusually large variations happening much more frequently than assumed by the bell curve.
I was wrong. Thank you for pointing it out. Still, no one in the CDC or the government seems willing to state the IF... THEN... scenarios of failing to contain this virus.
In other news, I'm an idiot. I sold everything except a small holding of Zoom Video. Today, it's up 50% from my buy a few days ago.
This is horrific! The economy is collapsing at unprecedented levels never seen since "The Great Depression." Mainstream economists predicting 20+% unemployment levels - Great Depression levels! The stock market is crashing at percentages not seen since 1929! (my 401k is obliterated!).
People seem oblivious to this economic meltdown. If this doesn't get turned around now then you will see a Global Depression of the likes never seen before in human history. This is serious (I'm near financial ruin!). As all attention is on the coronavirus, our economy, like the Titanic, is headed toward the iceberg!
https://finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/auto-stock-roundup-disruptions-galore-151103514.html
https://finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/auto-stock-roundup-disruptions-galore-151103514.html
Mayday wrote:
This is horrific! The economy is collapsing at unprecedented levels never seen since "The Great Depression." Mainstream economists predicting 20+% unemployment levels - Great Depression levels! The stock market is crashing at percentages not seen since 1929! (my 401k is obliterated!).
People seem oblivious to this economic meltdown. If this doesn't get turned around now then you will see a Global Depression of the likes never seen before in human history. This is serious (I'm near financial ruin!). As all attention is on the coronavirus, our economy, like the Titanic, is headed toward the iceberg!
Relax. Even Igy’s team says this won’t be as bad as the Great Depression.
Math man wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Ha, ha, as if you are doing anything other than wishful thinking.
At least someone is thinking.
But you really aren’t. That said, you would be wise to use your math skills to determine where this market is going. Hint: GAAP EPS times a realistic multiple.
Agree, the Depression was bad partly because no measures were even begun for years. Numbers today are bad & getting worse, but teamwork will pull us through. Same as Europe, really.
Dow and S+P both down over 4% for the day as I type.
Dow @ 18,372.
Should be crashing thru the 18k mark pretty soon.
Colin Sahlman runs 1:45 and Nico Young runs 1:47 in the 800m tonight at the Desert Heat Classic
Megan Keith (14:43) DESTROYS Parker Valby's 5000 PB in Shanghai
Molly Seidel Fails To Debut As An Ultra Runner After Running A Road Marathon The Week Before
Hallowed sub-16 barrier finally falls - 3 teams led by Villanova's 15:51.91 do it at Penn Relays!!!
Need female opinions: I’m dating a woman that is very sexual with me in public. Any tips/insight?
2024 Boston marathon - The first non-carbon assisted finisher ran..... 2:34