This has been a good rally. I could have made twice the money I did had I waited until today to sell! It's all good, though.
No predictions about how high the DJIA will go this year, or at what level the next effective plateau will be?
I was serious about the numbers I posted. The Japanese QE helps, but I was only maybe 60% certain they would do it, and I didn't know when, only that it would contribute a bit to the numbers I posted.
It's just one of the factors, but has essentially been responsible for the feel-good gain this Friday, which caps a great rally (after a good dip). More than anything, I think that it has created a sense of momentum--ridiculous, yes, because it is government spending--but positive momentum nonetheless, like investors are now more convinced than ever that governments will unfailingly support the markets. Japan has a history with QE. One has to wonder how it will affect currencies, but all these various moves seem to be driving up the USD index. Of course the Yen moved lower, and the USD seems to be near highs for the year.
Anybody who's anybody has USD accounts, but converting to USD to buy US equities has gotten more expensive, making US equities (which are bought by investors worldwide) even more expensive to others, than to us native Americans.
Look at crappy Canada, their dollar keeps going down vs the USD because they sell everything to us, and are dependent on oil and other resource extraction. At least they're not lying, they report their economy to be shrinking--but buying things in USD has gotten much more expensive for them in the past 12 months.
Some people, including myself, dislike the use of QE in the quantities in which it has been used by the US, and also Japan--but whatever. Stuff like QE in a way forces guys like me to evaluate cash held in different currencies, which is a drag, and continues the pressure to purchase investment products rather than being in cash (as an alternative to investing in other things).
I see the numbers going quite high--and I think it won't mean much if you are in, but it will mean a whole heck of a lot if you are out (out of both USD and US instruments).
DJIA up 162 with a couple of hours left...