Maserati wrote:
agip, good grief, on all of it, first and foremost the deficit announcement, and second the suggestion that there is any serious buying going on.
That type of stuff is aimed directly at voters, not investors.
just for the voters!
Maserati wrote:
agip, good grief, on all of it, first and foremost the deficit announcement, and second the suggestion that there is any serious buying going on.
That type of stuff is aimed directly at voters, not investors.
just for the voters!
Maserati wrote:
Now down 185.
agip, that is the kind of news morons get when the GDP is inflated by 3%, like it is.
Why don't you calculate deficit:GDP ratios from Reagan by using the new GDP methodology, and see what you get?
SP500 down even more, even small caps now down.
gdp artificially inflated!
Maserati, how do you determine if reported data is trustworthy? It seems that numbers that support your doom-and-gloom philosophy are trusted by you, while those painting a rosy scenario are "fudged".
Maserati wrote:
So while they fiddle with unemployment/growth/interest rates
fiddling with unemployment numbers! Fiddlign with growth numbers!
I could go on.
know, oh down goes the dow followers, who you are dealing with here.
Maserati seems to believe that virtually every economic number is fudged and he believes the country will suffer a massive infrastructure failure that we won't figure out how to fix.
just know who you are dealing with here - he is a conspiracist and something of a doomsdayer.
agip, I can see that you're having trouble.
While it is true that sentiment is a major market driver, you shouldn't be so frustrated by guys like me, we get guys like you buying opportunities. Similarly, guys like you get guys like me smoothed-out gains.
Think of it this way: even though I believe that things aren't great, I have acknowledged that the US is probably the best of the lot, which is sometimes all it takes.
You really need to stop seeing the negative in everything, and over-reacting with desperate-sounding positive spin. You realize that it is you who is trying to find positive, right? Rather than dealing more rationally with the real negatives?
It's all good, if you don't imbue it with any moral quality, which is what I sense you wish to do. I am not DISPARAGING "the market", or the efforts of market participants. Do you not understand that I have been mostly in, and that I am looking for a favorable opportunity to get back in? EVEN THOUGH I PERCEIVE THE NEGATIVE?
You need to think about that, and find a way to reconcile the apparent contradiction, otherwise you will continue in an unhelpful emotional turbidity.
DJIA closes the day down 174, to 16,142
And that's a good thing, if it represents a move toward rational price levels.
It doesn't matter if they are fudged or not. What matters is how the market reacts.
I am not doing well emotionally, no - I have some very scared clients, and I vent on LRC. So take it only partially personally.
I will say that you claim the most amazing things, like massive conspiracies in multiple bureaucracies to doctor the data, and then you claim to be the voice of reason.
you say 'things aren't great' but you also say the economy 'sucks'
you seem to want it both ways here - panicky conspiracy and doom yet calm reason. It's starting to drive me to drink.
Big Dog, there are no "doom-and-gloom" or "rosy" scenarios in general, only personally. Events are only relevant to me insofar as they affect me directly, other than that they are abstract, and neither "good" nor "bad".
I personally determine by applying a good deal of life experience, from the highest honorable levels to the lowest criminal levels. I have had the unique experience of dealing with all types, at all levels, and I have seen it almost all.
When I hear Bloomberg reporting about fake invoicing, I don't immediately believe it, the same as I don't immediately believe officially-published Chinese trade and growth figures. Each side has the taint of both truth and fiction, and each side has those who stand to benefit from propagation of the news.
In that particular case, it is only plausible, because I know about fake invoicing in that part of the world. How? Because I have been involved with exports of machinery to China, and imports of manufactured goods from China, and have had occasion to discuss operations with people in that part of the world. However, it is because it is only plausible, that I described it as I did--as something "reported by Bloomberg". It is at least as plausible as the published alternative, so in this case I look for the truth to lie somewhere in the middle of the two assertions.
That is only one very specific example, hopefully it will suffice because it is specific.
It fascinates me how people here and elsewhere still seem to invest events with a moral quality, as either "good" or "bad". Whatever happened to "When life gives you lemons, make lemonade"?
I do believe that the economy sucks.
Things aren't great to the extent that, at the moment and IMO going forward a few months, there is more uncertainty than I feel comfortable with.
I feel for you, having clients. I am not in that situation regarding the market, thankfully.
Depending on their situation, they may be right to be scared, but again, fear can be a valuable ally.
Surely, if you actually believe the philosophy you seem to have espoused in this thread, you can allay their fears by calmly asserting that over time, the markets will always rise, and that if they are re-balancing appropriately as they approach retirement, they will do fine, as they should be doing even now, although it might appear differently at the moment.
I'm not trying to be a dick, I'm just asking if you actually have the courage of your convictions. If you do, then it seems to me that you shouldn't be stressed any more than normal.
yes, that is what I do, and I have lost only 2 clients in my entire career and none for 4 years, but it is hard to escape the feelign that I could be doing more for them.
someone could have been less aggressive, someone could have had less europe and more real estate, etc.
I am the picture of calm with my clients of course.
I have the courage of my convictions, but there is always something that I could have done differently or better.
for example, I totally got europe wrong - I saw high dividends and a loosening central bank and saw stars - I overlooked the recession over there. I thought europe and the us would stay more correlated.
the hard years are those where diversification hurts - where owning the SP500 is the best. then all the carefull global allocation I do is all for naught.
Well, I wouldn't be so quick to say that it's all for naught. Don't window the data too narrowly.
Consider again the gains of 2013, window your data over 2 years, and you will come out looking like sunshine.
Europe is funny. I spend lots of time there.
Some observations that you may or may not care about:
Euros can be very, very cheap, nickel-and-dime cheap. For all the great artisanal cheese and sausage and fresh produce, there is a whole lot of factory-prepared foods, upon which the bulk of the population subsists. Chiseling is essentially the norm even in "western europe".
They are cheap because of experiences with turbulent governments, and histories of instability and distrust.
At the same time, they can have incredible tax burdens to deal with, like Denmark's 200% tax on cars. Yes, around 200%, no kidding. And if you think our estate tax is bad, try paying over 60% like in France, with nowhere near the deduction we have here.
Then there are limits on opportunity, that arise from things like the notorious nepotism system in Italy, a system that is economically incredibly inefficient.
Euros are insecure and distrustful mattress-stuffers, out of necessity. I have seen insane consumer activity from the international class, but the native class in the smaller centers, that's a different story.
Euros also often try to use black markets where possible, and much of their economic activity certainly goes unreported, especially in the poorer areas and among the poorer classes.
I know some very well-off Swiss who are retiring to Spain, because they consider Switzerland too expensive! I may retire over there (not in Spain), if I can find the right way to do it, without exposing anything I have to outright confiscation and wealth taxation.
There is some migration within Europe, but not a lot TO Europe, even though they have made it easier for those with money to get in; the exception is Chinese immigration, from those Chinese who have availed themselves of the economic incentives offered. They are almost ubiquitous at this point, but their numbers aren't big enough to enlarge economic activity significantly. Aging populations in much of Europe don't help, either, because they just don't spend as much.
Having said all that, I still believe in bifurcation, and in cheap consumer crap in particular. The price of even mediocre household goods in places like France can be staggering--400 euros for a complete piece of crap lamp? It's too bad that you can't invest in Ikea, they are one great example of what I'm talking about with respect to Europe. Consider the size of Ikea compared to somewhere like Conran, or Roche Bobois. Even cheaper than Ikea (believe it or not) is Fly.
Key words--cheap, black market, mattress-stuffers, tax, inefficiency, distrustful
I know this was unsolicited, I just couldn't resist.
Funny how 800 million people, 50 countries, dozens of political systems and hundreds of centuries old cultures can summed up in a couple of paragraphs.
How long was your coach tour?
Yes, it is funny, isn't it?
When I say I spend lots of time there, I mean lots. Like most. Both of our families are there, from east to west, from north to south.
Anyone who believes they are all that different from one another doesn't know what they are talking about. Just because one valley has a different football team than the next one is no basis to extend that differentiation to other aspects of society. The current borders are in many cases, culturally meaningless. And the governments aren't as different as you might think, and neither are their histories with respect to governance.
Basic attitudes can usefully be stereotyped among different people. It makes just as much sense to talk of Europe as a cultural or economic unit, as it does to speak the same way of the USA, Russia, Africa, China, India, or any other large unit.
Nobody is asking you to believe anything I wrote, and that decision is entirely yours, I couldn't care less on what side you come down on--but your offered grounds of dismissal are glib, simplistic, and worthless in practice.
agip wrote:
Maserati wrote:You know growth analysis has been revised to give an artificial 3% bump, right?
uh huh
liars and cheats! Everyone! tell it, Maserati! Preach!
I'm fascinated that you don't consider that people (i.e. those in gov't) who are blamed/praised for the "economy" wouldn't consider manipulating the numbers in a way to make them more appealing. Especially when they believe that consumer confidence is a key to the whole puzzle.
Companies, and leaders in general do this all the time.
Thou doth protest too much.
For all the financial geniuses on here who are unfamiliar with the concept of inflation when measuring how well equities truly perform, here is one place you can view the "Real Dow"...the Dow adjusted for inflation.
Of course all you need do is type "the real Dow" into google and you can find this in several places.
As you will see, the Dow from its peak in 1929 until the early 90s merely kept up with inflation (it has done quite well since); a not unsubstantial period of time of over 60 years.
And as far as those who scoff at those who question the legitimacy of the market and such things as job reports, I wonder how you explain away the 2010 "flash crash"? When the Dow dropped 600 points in five minutes only to fully recover within another 20 minutes on the afternoon of May 6, 2010. Nothing shady going on there I suppose?
wha-huh? wrote:
agip wrote:uh huh
liars and cheats! Everyone! tell it, Maserati! Preach!
I'm fascinated that you don't consider that people (i.e. those in gov't) who are blamed/praised for the "economy" wouldn't consider manipulating the numbers in a way to make them more appealing. Especially when they believe that consumer confidence is a key to the whole puzzle.
Companies, and leaders in general do this all the time.
Thou doth protest too much.
huh? you think politicians work on the economic statistics? you think Joe Biden is in the BLS entering data?
career bureaucrats and economists make the numbers.
Tell me what you think the path to widespread data fudging is.
Brian Boru wrote:
Of course all you need do is type "the real Dow" into google and you can find this in several places.
As you will see, the Dow from its peak in 1929 until the early 90s merely kept up with inflation (it has done quite well since); a not unsubstantial period of time of over 60 years.
You're not taking in to account dividends which would have returned you 5% - 10% a year back in those days.
The average "real" annual return, including dividends, between 1929 and 1990 was 9.9% for the Dow and 10.1% for the S&P 500.
Since then dividends have gone out of fashion but the net returns have stayed the same.
please tell me what shady events led to the flash crash.
How would I know? I wasn't in on it.
Tell me how the Dow could drop 600 points in 5 minutes and regain it in 20 without manipulation.