And so it begins wrote:
The Bear Market/recession has started. We won't see the S&P 500 at 2950 again for 6+ months, possibly 9+ months. Now it's just seeing how far it will fall.
I’ll take that bet.
Down goes the Dow
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I’ll take that bet. -
Greetings everyone, what did I miss??
Hope everyone is well, and not fretting too much.
Racket, agree on the IPO’s. Lol Peloton, the only product is an exercise bike, all the rest is window dressing. Fewer and fewer people hopping on bandwagons because faith is eroding.
At this point IMO longer-term investors have to acknowledge that the US equity market has gone nowhere for a pretty long time now—so what to do? Where to go? Corporate bonds? REIT’s?
Without getting into futures and options, and even shorts, there seems to be little left for the conservative investor. Maybe that’s a good thing, it might change risk appetite and spur business development.
I have done essentially nothing since I last posted—still have my same positions, same holdings. Am considering some euro rental property but even at 1-1.5% financing, the tax scaling is a PITA—around 37% on net rental income—and laws heavily favor renters. Even though there is a force nultiplier for me on this property, it is expensive and a pain. I don’t think I will even make a lowball offer.
One bright spot: Russia. I said on here years ago that if there was a good investment vehicle, I would take it, and I did—but only a tiny position, to test the waters. I am sandwiched between the Fed, and Voya, so I took a look at Voya’s LETRX, in which I now wish I had taken a real position. I will now be increasing that position, even after the recent outperformance.
There now seems to be more money floating around than there are investment uses for it. I am looking for imbalances in that equation—places where there are many uses, but where people haven’t wanted to put money. No, not junk bonds. This excludes the US, as everyone has piled money in here. Russia is a start. There are a few other areas. Out of tech and into utilities, maybe, as far as US markets are concerned.
Nice to be back, it’s always hard switching back to thinking in English. -
holy airpockets that was a weird opening hour of trading.
Clearly too many people are using stop loss orders. -
agip wrote:
holy airpockets that was a weird opening hour of trading.
Clearly too many people are using stop loss orders.
Yeah, I think the computers are having their way right now, though I don't think anything will ever beat the auto-sell programs in the 1987 debacle.
On a lighter note, good to see Maserati again--I'm mostly a lurker but do enjoy your posts.
Anyway, agip, agreed: Weird stuff going on today. Yeesh.
https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-today-stock-market-rally-tesla-deliveries-pepsi-earnings-costco-earnings-constellation-brands/ -
Maserati wrote:
Greetings everyone, what did I miss??
Hope everyone is well, and not fretting too much.
Racket, agree on the IPO’s. Lol Peloton, the only product is an exercise bike, all the rest is window dressing. Fewer and fewer people hopping on bandwagons because faith is eroding.
At this point IMO longer-term investors have to acknowledge that the US equity market has gone nowhere for a pretty long time now—so what to do? Where to go? Corporate bonds? REIT’s?
Without getting into futures and options, and even shorts, there seems to be little left for the conservative investor. Maybe that’s a good thing, it might change risk appetite and spur business development.
I have done essentially nothing since I last posted—still have my same positions, same holdings. Am considering some euro rental property but even at 1-1.5% financing, the tax scaling is a PITA—around 37% on net rental income—and laws heavily favor renters. Even though there is a force nultiplier for me on this property, it is expensive and a pain. I don’t think I will even make a lowball offer.
One bright spot: Russia. I said on here years ago that if there was a good investment vehicle, I would take it, and I did—but only a tiny position, to test the waters. I am sandwiched between the Fed, and Voya, so I took a look at Voya’s LETRX, in which I now wish I had taken a real position. I will now be increasing that position, even after the recent outperformance.
There now seems to be more money floating around than there are investment uses for it. I am looking for imbalances in that equation—places where there are many uses, but where people haven’t wanted to put money. No, not junk bonds. This excludes the US, as everyone has piled money in here. Russia is a start. There are a few other areas. Out of tech and into utilities, maybe, as far as US markets are concerned.
Nice to be back, it’s always hard switching back to thinking in English.
emerging markets have been dogs for a long time - at some point they will start ripping and roaring.
Right now might be a good time to take a look - purchasing manager numbers have started to turn up in several emerging markets after a long dump. But who knows - those stocks have been awful for so long. -
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Big Dog Investments wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Hey no kiss of death from me Big guy. If you think a stock that is losing -$5.31 a share is a good gamble (note gamble not investment) then OK.
I obviously think it’s a good gamble. I even said as much. And now I think it is an even better gamble since you chimed in on the down side (as usual). Your reputation as a contrarian indicator is well deserved.
And your reputation for buying fundamentally flawed investments is well deserved. Let’s track this one and see how the contrarian indicator works.
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/uber
UBER hits a new all-time low at $30.41.
This isn’t even fun anymore....like CHK.
Obviously the DGTD Contrarian Contrarian Indicator:
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYSE-UBER/
This is great! Thanks for chiming in, Igy. Now we can expect a nice rebound for UBER. After all, you helped me make some nice profits with AAPL, AMZN, FB, etc. Why should this be any different?
I sold my DIS yesterday. Got any investment “recommendations” for those funds? -
You prefer companies that lose money, Peleton is right up your alley.
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Hey Big, I also heard the online trading companies are encouraging you to do stupid stuff for free. Now that you are out of your bunker you should load up on the rebound, and for “free.”
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agip wrote:
holy airpockets that was a weird opening hour of trading.
Clearly too many people are using stop loss orders.
Probability of a rate cut went up like 20% in the first hour of trading.
"Hey guys, great news! The economy is so bad that the Fed will now be forced to cut rates even harder! BUY BUY BUY"
It makes sense really. -
Maserati wrote:
One bright spot: Russia. I said on here years ago that if there was a good investment vehicle, I would take it, and I did—but only a tiny position, to test the waters. I am sandwiched between the Fed, and Voya, so I took a look at Voya’s LETRX, in which I now wish I had taken a real position. I will now be increasing that position, even after the recent outperformance.
There now seems to be more money floating around than there are investment uses for it. I am looking for imbalances in that equation—places where there are many uses, but where people haven’t wanted to put money. No, not junk bonds. This excludes the US, as everyone has piled money in here. Russia is a start. There are a few other areas. Out of tech and into utilities, maybe, as far as US markets are concerned.
Nice to be back, it’s always hard switching back to thinking in English.
I don't like Russia because it's too much like China. If someone from within the Russian government releases a negative economic report then they'll end up at the bottom of a river. Also, their economy is like 90% oil (almost back in a bear market) and natural gas (that we make more of).
As for money floating around, people are yield chasing like never before. As I mentioned earlier, there's 15 trillion in sovereign debt under negative yield rates. Interesting times.
Futures and options have been mildly amusing me lately though. VIX is sitting around 20 so you can probably walk away with some nice lunch money if you hop in on those crazy swings like earlier this morning -
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Earnie wrote:
Earnings Scorecard: For Q3 2019 (with 14 of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results), 12 S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 6 S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/earnings-season-the-truth-about-wall-street-analysis/
https://mobile.twitter.com/albertedwards99/status/1179799573793067010 -
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
You prefer companies that lose money, Peleton is right up your alley.
I prefer companies that make money for me. You know, like AAPL, AMZN, FB and the others that you downplayed. Based on your recent assessment, I expect UBER to eventually join those other winners.
How are your CDs doing? -
Racket wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
[quote]2P Man wrote:
[quote]Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Of course that is insanity, to go along with the latest IPOs.
Not much of an IPO hype lately. Uber and Lyft were dead out of the gate, WeWork had to cancel their IPO, Peloton is basically an elaborate pump and dump by some VC guys and Slack has been a straight line down for a while. I think we're seeing less of the legit optimism and bandwagon hype of 2000 and more like "well, here's another tech company that some venture capital company wants to cash out on."
Sure there is, underwriters are still bringing weak companies to market and those shares are sold to unsuspecting retail investors or slammed into mutual funds. Typical overvalued late cycle ipo market. -
Big Dog Investments wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
You prefer companies that lose money, Peleton is right up your alley.
I prefer companies that make money for me. You know, like AAPL, AMZN, FB and the others that you downplayed. Based on your recent assessment, I expect UBER to eventually join those other winners.
How are your CDs doing?
I would assume that over the past 20 months CDs have outperformed your portfolio on a risk adjusted basis. That is certainly true of stocks generally.
Big,
My view of AAPL, AMZN and FB was and remains good companies but overvalued assets (among the most over owned equities). So you will feel the pain and gain in more proportionally to the market’s performance. UBER is like your investment in CHK, speculative and not supported by fundamentals.
Hey just returning the slam. Other than that, hope it works for you.
Igy -
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Racket wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
[quote]2P Man wrote:
[quote]Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Of course that is insanity, to go along with the latest IPOs.
Not much of an IPO hype lately. Uber and Lyft were dead out of the gate, WeWork had to cancel their IPO, Peloton is basically an elaborate pump and dump by some VC guys and Slack has been a straight line down for a while. I think we're seeing less of the legit optimism and bandwagon hype of 2000 and more like "well, here's another tech company that some venture capital company wants to cash out on."
Sure there is, underwriters are still bringing weak companies to market and those shares are sold to unsuspecting retail investors or slammed into mutual funds. Typical overvalued late cycle ipo market.
doesnt' that *always* happen on Wall Street? regardless of where we are in the biz cycle?
I mean we've been doing next to nothing in the market for c18 months...probably time to start thinking about the next leg up, not the next leg down. Igy you have been mostly right for a year and a half...time to realize that a market stalled out for a year and a half, historically speaking, is way more toward a bull market than a bear market. -
agip,
My view is the business cycle is long in the tooth. Underwriters are rushing out any start-up with a pulse. Historically speaking I believe there is more support for a bad bear market. Can this cycle extend further, of course. I would view this only as leading to a more severe bear market. I am in my last 12 months in the business, and an up market is certainly beneficial to my personal income. My recommendation remains that one should tilt to lower percentage of risk assets relative to their tolerance for volatility and time horizon. At this point I would prefer to be more conservative than pushing the envelope.
Igy -
I'll be looking at Uber but not until it falls some more.
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yeah, and i hear that there not all that bubbly over at amazon, either.
