Down goes the Dow

Now in actual news, there's something like 15 trillion in sovereign debt that's under a negative interest rate at the moment. Investors are gonna be yield chasing hard in order to get those returns which means excuses are gonna be made for terrible stocks and poor earnings while investors try to justify positions to themselves and the general public. Where else are they gonna park their money? Next best thing would be high leveraged bonds and tranches but that's too risky because everyone and their mother watches those markets hoping to be the next Big Short.

Racket wrote:

Igy, with all due respect, and remember I'm saying this with all due respect now, but nothing you've said for the past year has come even remotely close to making sense and isn't worth a velvet picture of a whale and a dolphin getting it on. Cheers!

Given what we’ve already seen from Igy’s “art” collection (yuck), it’s a fair bet that he also has that picture of the whale and dolphin.

Racket wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Ha, ha. As if your post was legit conversation. Read what you wrote. The Democrats are as corrupt as those you hate. They just promote the agenda of what you think you deserve.

https://grrrgraphics.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/nadler_ahab_trump_whale.jpg

Igy, with all due respect, and remember I'm saying this with all due respect now, but nothing you've said for the past year has come even remotely close to making sense and isn't worth a velvet picture of a whale and a dolphin getting it on. Cheers!

Racket,

OK, you say I don’t make sense, and then you follow this post with what I have no clue. Now, I will leave politics to the Trump thread where it belongs. In regards to the market, stocks and bonds are grossly overvalued. Of course that has been true for sometime. How else do you reach the greatest asset bubble in history? Now you reference the past year, stocks are at the same level. All Country World Index substantially down from where it was 20 months ago. Can the market move higher? Of course, but on speculation and likely not fundamentals. So make your bet! We’ll see how it works out.

By the way thanks for the due respect. I give you a hard time, but you seem like a nice thoughtful person.

Igy

You’re cherry picking dates again.

Trump impeachment hearings...

Trade deal unlikely...

More tariffs...

Increasingly erratic behavior of Trump...

Possible Warren presidency...

Yield inversions...

As of now, I think I am going to ride it out, but I am considering getting out of the stocks and going for bonds as I wait for the dip (or possible crash). I do not think we'll see a 40% dip, but a 10% drop in the next 9 months seems equally likely to a 10% increase over that time period, and I do think there is a chance of a major dip (20% or more). It is impossible to predict accurately, but there are many indicators now of a recession on the way, and people are already preparing. Buffet is loaded up on cash right now, gold and silver are up, and stocks have been stagnant... Not really the most promising signs for stocks right now. I know the wisest "sure-bet" strategy is buy and hold, buy and hold, but timing the market even somewhat accurately with a 20% dip means big payoffs, especially compared to holding over that time period, and there seem to be more indicators of a coming dip now than there have been since 2007. That doesn't make them a sure thing, but it's more than a little thought-provoking.

All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through September 30, 2019. The top performer is France's CAC 40 with a 21.08% gain and in second is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 18.59%. In third is China's Shanghai SSE with a gain of 17.84%. Coming in last is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a gain of 3.83%.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2019/10/01/world-markets-update?bt_ee=E7HrZ8SlD4sWEaZRj%2F%2FXzgwMdAfHs0wFYTUhBsx8bsQXm2kshm1qEgipU1XNo8M4&bt_ts=1569932586934

Dow trading below the 1/26/2918 close of 26,616.71.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/uber

UBER hits a new all-time low at $30.41.

This isn’t even fun anymore....like CHK.

Obviously the DGTD Contrarian Contrarian Indicator:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Dow trading below the 1/26/2918 close of 26,616.71.

Did you mean 2018? If so, I’m sorry that you chose that date to invest. I chose 12/26/18 and am doing very well.

S&P 500 traded within 2 points of the 1/26/2018 close.

The Bear Market/recession has started. We won't see the S&P 500 at 2950 again for 6+ months, possibly 9+ months. Now it's just seeing how far it will fall.

Keep in mind the March 2000 S&P 500 high did not durably advance until spring 2013. So, short run can’t say, but the 3,000+ level will be hurdle for sometime in the future, perhaps another 13 years.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

S&P 500 traded within 2 points of the 1/26/2018 close.

But way ahead of where it was on 12/26/2018. Look on the bright side.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Keep in mind the March 2000 S&P 500 high did not durably advance until spring 2013. So, short run can’t say, but the 3,000+ level will be hurdle for sometime in the future, perhaps another 13 years.

That's not really a fair comparison. The dot com bubble was insanity, and the market had exploded at the time at ridiculous rates. It was a very different scenario than now. Even if the market is overbought right now, it's not comparable to 2000. My best guess is that we won't see a record high for around a year, but how low it will go is tough to predict. Another 5% drop is very possible, even likely. A 20% drop is a big maybe. More than that is statistically unlikely though possible. Trump's tariffs are starting to show their effects. As I've said before, gold being up, Warren Buffet holding record levels of cash, rate cuts, emergency action by the fed pumping in 100 billion dollars into the system overnight, etc, is all a very bad sign for stocks and the economy over the next 6-12 months.

How many $Trillions of negative yielding debt?

Of course that is insanity, to go along with the latest IPOs.

Overall, more overvalued across the board than 2000.

15 trillion in sovereign debt with negative yields.

Side not, it's kind of interesting to see the effect that China and the EU are having on the US. It seems that, for once, they're dragging us down instead of the usual reverse. China's auto-market is going upside down really quickly and a lot of US auto manufacturers are way over-leveraged on aggressive China expansion policies.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

[quote]2P Man wrote:

[quote]Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Of course that is insanity, to go along with the latest IPOs.

Not much of an IPO hype lately. Uber and Lyft were dead out of the gate, WeWork had to cancel their IPO, Peloton is basically an elaborate pump and dump by some VC guys and Slack has been a straight line down for a while. I think we're seeing less of the legit optimism and bandwagon hype of 2000 and more like "well, here's another tech company that some venture capital company wants to cash out on."