Wow! Do you believe Hussman, Igy? If so, that means there will be a 250% increase in the markets at some point in the next 12 years. If you get in near the bottom, that’s a good chunk of money to be made.
Yes, Hussman is simply giving a historical perspective. Of course if you are young with little at risk, why worry? For those nearing retirement with their financial plan on the line it certainly makes sense to act prudently.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Yes, Hussman is simply giving a historical perspective. Of course if you are young with little at risk, why worry? For those nearing retirement with their financial plan on the line it certainly makes sense to act prudently.
For someone around 60 and nearing retirement, acting prudently means being invested in the stock market. If Hussman is right and the market goes up 250% in the next twelve years, they should be buying when the market drops the 60% you predict, and reap the rewards when they are 72.
Of course, that is assuming that both you and Hussman are correct.
J. Hardy wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Yes, Hussman is simply giving a historical perspective. Of course if you are young with little at risk, why worry? For those nearing retirement with their financial plan on the line it certainly makes sense to act prudently.
For someone around 60 and nearing retirement, acting prudently means being invested in the stock market. If Hussman is right and the market goes up 250% in the next twelve years, they should be buying when the market drops the 60% you predict, and reap the rewards when they are 72.
Of course, that is assuming that both you and Hussman are correct.
The only math that makes your assumption work is to reduce your stock exposure in advance of any devline.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Of course if you are young with little at risk, why worry? For those nearing retirement with their financial plan on the line it certainly makes sense to act prudently.
Do you notice how calm the rhetoric is when he realizes this was no more than another minor short term dip in the market, and the predicted crash of 60% is not happening.
nah wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Of course if you are young with little at risk, why worry? For those nearing retirement with their financial plan on the line it certainly makes sense to act prudently.
Do you notice how calm the rhetoric is when he realizes this was no more than another minor short term dip in the market, and the predicted crash of 60% is not happening.
S&P 500 same level as 1/26/2018, Dow 800 points lower. Enough said.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
J. Hardy wrote:
For someone around 60 and nearing retirement, acting prudently means being invested in the stock market. If Hussman is right and the market goes up 250% in the next twelve years, they should be buying when the market drops the 60% you predict, and reap the rewards when they are 72.
Of course, that is assuming that both you and Hussman are correct.
The only math that makes your assumption work is to reduce your stock exposure in advance of any devline.
Well not ‘any’ decline, but certainly before the big one you are predicting...but not too far before. Anyway it’s not hard to do. As always, sell high and buy low.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Racket wrote:
A 65% sell-off is going to require incredible amounts of panic, not just bearish activity or pessimism. You'd need a severe credit crunch to limit the amount average people can buy and a huge drop in consumer confidence. As long as money remains really cheap and easy then I don't see a crash scenario playing out. I think what's more likely to happen is we just bounce between the range we've been at for like 18 months until inflation catches up. Welcome to Japan
That is assuming quite a bit, mostly “what has been, will be.” At the same time you ignore the Nikkei is about 50% below where it was 30 years ago.
lol well good luck with your doomsday prediction. I'm sure it's only a matter of time until investors wake up and sell everything because "these gosh darn prices are just too high and we should really be doing things fairly golly gee."
Racket wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
That is assuming quite a bit, mostly “what has been, will be.” At the same time you ignore the Nikkei is about 50% below where it was 30 years ago.
lol well good luck with your doomsday prediction. I'm sure it's only a matter of time until investors wake up and sell everything because "these gosh darn prices are just too high and we should really be doing things fairly golly gee."
A good indicator of when that happens is when you figure out all that shuffling of money has gone nowhere. At that point we will most likely no longer hear from you.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
nah wrote:
Do you notice how calm the rhetoric is when he realizes this was no more than another minor short term dip in the market, and the predicted crash of 60% is not happening.
S&P 500 same level as 1/26/2018, Dow 800 points lower. Enough said.
Slightly lower than 60%. Enough said!
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Racket wrote:
lol well good luck with your doomsday prediction. I'm sure it's only a matter of time until investors wake up and sell everything because "these gosh darn prices are just too high and we should really be doing things fairly golly gee."
A good indicator of when that happens is when you figure out all that shuffling of money has gone nowhere. At that point we will most likely no longer hear from you.
Yeah that makes literally no sense at all but OK.
For anyone else interested, I'm curious what default rates on corporate debt are currently at as well as rates of AAA and BBB/BB downgrades. My guess is that it's still fairly low since interest rates are of course so low
https://mobile.twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1162358366884245504nah wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
S&P 500 same level as 1/26/2018, Dow 800 points lower. Enough said.
Slightly lower than 60%. Enough said!
Hussman is an idiot. Anyone who follows him on Twitter is a bigger idiot.
Actually your knowledge base is so limited that you are the comparative idiot.
Say wha? wrote:
Portia wrote:
All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through August 12, 2019. The top performer is our own S&P 500 with a 14.85% gain and in second is China's Shanghai SSE with a gain of 14.18%. In third is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 13.24%. Coming in last is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a gain of 2.76%.
But the doomsayers would have you believe the end is near.
What fixes have been made to the system since the 60% sell-off in 2008?
The Banksters did not go to jail, they got bailed out and did not miss a bonus.
They are so emboldened to engage in the same criminal behavior that caused the 2008 crash.
Add to that insane central bank policies. Normalize interest rates and the whole Ponzi scheme collapses.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Actually your knowledge base is so limited that you are the comparative idiot.
I’ve got news for you, fanboy. Hussman’s signature fund has literally lost nearly a half billion dollars of his investors’ money since inception. The guy is the definition of a loser. You must be retarded if you take financial advice from him.