you are a classic one issue guy - only looking for facts that agree with your stance.
It would appear that Agip is a victim of psychological affliction called projection.
Quite common among his ilk.
you are a classic one issue guy - only looking for facts that agree with your stance.
It would appear that Agip is a victim of psychological affliction called projection.
Quite common among his ilk.
Huh?? wrote:
BTW, if you stay out for the next three months, you'll miss the annual Christmas run up. It should be a good one this year.
The annual Xmas run-up?
Do you have data to support this phenomena?
And on what theory do you base your conclusion that it will be a good one this year?
And why must we all pretend the make-up of the Board of the Fed is unimportant?
Klondike5 wrote:
The annual Xmas run-up?
Do you have data to support this phenomena?
And on what theory do you base your conclusion that it will be a good one this year?
And why must we all pretend the make-up of the Board of the Fed is unimportant?
You've never heard of the "Santa Claus Rally"? Historically December has been the third best month for the market. And given the improved economy and rising confidence, this holiday season looks to be the best in years.
Of course the make up of the Board is important. No one said it wasn't. It's just got nothing to do with ethnicity or religious beliefs.
"Of course the make up of the Board is important. No one said it wasn't. It's just got nothing to do with ethnicity or religious beliefs."
Then you are apparently unaware that one small ethic/religious minority always has a majority of the seats on the Board as well as a majority of the presidents of the local Feds? And has also had the chair of the Fed for decades and will have the next chair as well?
So what?
Huh?? wrote:
You've never heard of the "Santa Claus Rally"? Historically December has been the third best month for the market. And given the improved economy and rising confidence, this holiday season looks to be the best in years.
You know, after reading the below information, I was starting to get nervous about the overvalued stock market (among other things).
But now that I've learned the third best month for stocks is only 3 months away... YIPEEE!!!! By the way - what's the worst month? That wouldn't happen to be between now and Christmas, by chance? lmao.
From a friend:
There was an emergency teleconference between all the regional Federal Reserve Banks on Thursday (Sept 5) evening, the reason for this meeting was that 10 Yr. Treasuries had gone over 3.01% and had closed there.
A directive was sent to all the Regional Federal Reserves to sell Treasuries and MBS, even though they would be selling them at a loss. The Fed needed liquidity to combat increasing yields in the long term treasury market. This liquidity is coming at the expense of already severely depleted capital reserves though.
Eventually, early Friday Morning, a deal was struck with several Fed Member Banks to purchase 10 yr treasuries at above market prices. This caused an instant drop of 12.5 basis points on the 10 yr treasury before the market opened the next day.
This was a panic move, they were about to totally lose control of the bond markets!!! Had the yield on 10 Yr Treasuries remained at over 3.00% going into the next morning it would have triggered massive Margin Calls in the derivative markets, and would have triggered a massive sell off, which in turn would have put much much more pressure on bond yields. This was the domino that would have pushed the bond and derivative market over the cliff...
The Fed is, for all intents and purposes, broke. They have very little liquidity, and very little capital (at least for what they need to have to operate, which is A LOT!!!) Ordinarily the Fed would push these capital losses over to the U.S. Treasury in the form of a Negative Interest Deposit (a loss), but the Treasury is closed for business until the debt ceiling is raised...meaning we are in a very very precarious time right now, though no financial papers will mention it.
All I can say is: I would make sure any money you have in stocks, a) you won't need for at least 10 years; and b) you can afford financially & psychologically to see it drop 75% and stay there longer than we've seen stock drops last in the last 30 years... while you get a pay cut.
Huh?? wrote:
So what?
The fact that our Central Bank in charge of US monetary policy is in the hands of a tiny ethnic minority with great love and loyalty to a foreign nation elicits a "so what" from you?
God help us all.
Lopi wrote:
I thought you got out in June. No one was talking of attacking Syria then.
Who is this mysterious "no one" you refer to?
2012 Joe Biden: "If Romney wins, we will go to war with Syria".
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=lL9utCfP2H4Seems like the unspoken part was "...same if Obama wins."
brilliant! wrote:
Who is this mysterious "no one" you refer to?
2012 Joe Biden: "If Romney wins, we will go to war with Syria".
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=lL9utCfP2H4Seems like the unspoken part was "...same if Obama wins."
The unspoken part was obviously "if Obama wins, we WON'T go to war with Syria". Why else would Biden have mentioned it?
Smarter than brilliant wrote:
The unspoken part was obviously "if Obama wins, we WON'T go to war with Syria". Why else would Biden have mentioned it?
Hmmm... maybe to get votes?
I'm sure your interpretation is what he wanted people to infer. Not as sure about his true meaning. Funny thing about politicians though... sometimes actions don't match the words.
I hope you are right. I guess time will tell.
Smarter than brilliant wrote:
The unspoken part was obviously "if Obama wins, we WON'T go to war with Syria". Why else would Biden have mentioned it?
And, the main point still stands - somebody definitely was talking about attacking Syria before June, 2013. Contrary to what was claimed in the post I replied to.
I can't help myself - this is just too much fun.
OP posted on 8/27 that he felt the dow was a sell.
Since then it has risen 9 of 12 days and a total of 4.0%. in fact, that day was the exact low of August.
In other words, if you took his advice, you would have given up around five months worth of return (if you accept stocks rise 10% per year over time)
OP claims he sold at dow 15,000 so he has only a 2.5-3.0% effective loss.
Nice call of the bottom, OP - looking forward to more contrarian calls from you.
See you when I feel like updating the thread. I am renouncing my month-end only promise.
He also said the funds from his sales were being held as cash, some in CDs. How stupid is that?
dow up over 150 points so far today to over 15,500. nice.
excellent point, no one importan
Since the OP began this thread, the dow is up 5.0% exactly. 6 months of returns in 12 trading days. Even putting aside who the OP is, is this not a perfect example of how going on hunches can bite you very hard?
NB: OP claims he got out at 15,000, so he only has a 'loss' of 3.5%
zounds!
another 60 points on the dow today so far - but where is that klondike guy? I suspect he got banned.
agip wrote:
another 60 points on the dow today so far - but where is that klondike guy? I suspect he got banned.
Wrong again.
as much as part of me would like to back you into a corner so you dig your heels in and continue to effectively lose money...I'm not that guy. I'll assume you are a runner and therefore I do not completely want to abandon you.
So...how long do you plan to sit this out?
I'll tell you - I am a professional investor and one of the biggest lessons I have learned is to admit small mistakes and not let them grow into large ones.
You might consider a dollar cost averaging system to move small but regular amounts back in, just in case you are wrong.
(I know, bigfoot, I know DCA is a logical fallacy, but we're talking a behavioral investment problem here, not a mathematical investment problem)
agip wrote:
...
You might consider a dollar cost averaging system to move small but regular amounts back in, just in case you are wrong.
(I know, bigfoot, I know DCA is a logical fallacy, but we're talking a behavioral investment problem here, not a mathematical investment problem)
:-)
agip wrote:
Since the OP began this thread, the dow is up 5.0% exactly.
15,000 to 15,539 equals 3.59%. Not sure how that is "5.0% exactly". That must be AGIP math.
6 months of returns in 12 trading days.
Who the eff knows what that means? 12 days equals six months in AGIP world?
NB: OP claims he got out at 15,000, so he only has a 'loss' of 3.5%.
Theoretical loss of 3.59% in fact as noted above.
zounds!
Indeed. AGIP is perhaps the dumbest MFer on letsrun.
is this not a perfect example of how going on hunches can bite you very hard?
Investing in equities is not a risk?