aaaaaaaand the SPX is back to its 200 day moving average, first time since December1ish.
Will that trigger buying? Some only own the market when it is above the 200 day.
Or will it trigger selling? Some consider a moving day average to be resistance if you are trying to break back above it.
All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through February 11, 2019. The top performer is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with an 11.99% gain and in second is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 7.96%. In third is the Shanghai SSE with a gain of 7.65%. Coming in last is India's BSE SENSEX with a gain of 1.40%.
Racket wrote:
agip wrote:
it's true that if you expect earnings to continue to grow, then the market is not expensive does support high single digit returns from stocks. JPM's guide to the markets does a regression that finds, based on forward PE, a 10% return for 5 years is a median guess.
So do you feel lucky, investors?
I saw Vanguard lowered expectations for the next 10 years. They were pretty much spot on in 2008 too.
Companies guiding down and firms like Vanguard sending out the warning signals.
Dow up over 1% right now lol
Don't get overly excited. You know we've been warned by a reliable source that Qtr 1 of 2019 is going to be a disaster.
Reliable?
mister wrote:
Racket wrote:
I saw Vanguard lowered expectations for the next 10 years. They were pretty much spot on in 2008 too.
Companies guiding down and firms like Vanguard sending out the warning signals.
Dow up over 1% right now lol
Don't get overly excited. You know we've been warned by a reliable source that Qtr 1 of 2019 is going to be a disaster.
Better hope that is not the case. Mrs still pissed about your bets on Qtr 4 2018, and the entire year for that matter.
agip wrote:
Racket wrote:
I saw Vanguard lowered expectations for the next 10 years. They were pretty much spot on in 2008 too.
Companies guiding down and firms like Vanguard sending out the warning signals.
Dow up over 1% right now lol
in 2008 Vanguard predicted 15% per year returns for the US stock market? I'd be surprised if they made that prediction but that's what we've got right now.
Of course, that's 10 years from the bottom of the financial crisis, so it's a cherry picked number.
I think they put it at 12-13%. I'll see if I can find the link again
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
mister wrote:
Don't get overly excited. You know we've been warned by a reliable source that Qtr 1 of 2019 is going to be a disaster.
Better hope that is not the case. Mrs still pissed about your bets on Qtr 4 2018, and the entire year for that matter.
You're right, she is. She had been saying CD's are the way to go since 2011. All she wanted to talk about is Qtr. 4 2018, not the prior 7 years. I told you, that's why I divorced her.
mister wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Better hope that is not the case. Mrs still pissed about your bets on Qtr 4 2018, and the entire year for that matter.
You're right, she is. She had been saying CD's are the way to go since 2011. All she wanted to talk about is Qtr. 4 2018, not the prior 7 years. I told you, that's why I divorced her.
Smart gal that Mrs she’ll make out fine on the 50% split, while your half will dwindle to 25%. You’re not Bezos are you?
The market has recovered nicely. I consider 7506 for the NASDAQ and 25600 as baseline Dow numbers. Former highs for the exchanges. The markets had taken a beating recently but the NASDAQ already close to that number and the Dow not far behind. My enthusiasm in the markets has always been robust and continues to be robust.
Sally Vix wrote:
The market has recovered nicely. I consider 7506 for the NASDAQ and 25600 as baseline Dow numbers. Former highs for the exchanges. The markets had taken a beating recently but the NASDAQ already close to that number and the Dow not far behind. My enthusiasm in the markets has always been robust and continues to be robust.
How enthusiastic were you 12/24 and what was your level of robustness then? That is the most telling point not when everyone thinks the all clear signal has been given.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Sally Vix wrote:
The market has recovered nicely. I consider 7506 for the NASDAQ and 25600 as baseline Dow numbers. Former highs for the exchanges. The markets had taken a beating recently but the NASDAQ already close to that number and the Dow not far behind. My enthusiasm in the markets has always been robust and continues to be robust.
How enthusiastic were you 12/24 and what was your level of robustness then? That is the most telling point not when everyone thinks the all clear signal has been given.
Same as now. I have been buying mutual funds (and some stocks) for a very long time now. I have supreme confidence in the market long-term. My portfolio has done wonderfully. Those periods where there might be market retractions, I view as a choice buying opportunity. I buy mutual funds (mainly) every month and if the market drops 10 or 20 per cent I know that I am buying at a deep discount. And just like today, the market ALWAYS recovers. Living la vida loca.
That’s good most people buy when things are going up. I was selling for retirees today.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
That’s good most people buy when things are going up. I was selling for retirees today.
They were fortunate. The market had widely recovered and they did very well.
Sally Vix wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
That’s good most people buy when things are going up. I was selling for retirees today.
They were fortunate. The market had widely recovered and they did very well.
Of course that is purely subjective. The All Country World Index is still down -3.74% while the S&P 500 is up +1.39% over the past year. My 2.75% CDs are looking pretty good in comparison.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Sally Vix wrote:
They were fortunate. The market had widely recovered and they did very well.
Of course that is purely subjective. The All Country World Index is still down -3.74% while the S&P 500 is up +1.39% over the past year. My 2.75% CDs are looking pretty good in comparison.
The international market has been depressed for a long time now. I quit buying international funds years ago. The "ideal" portfolio would recommend international funds as wells as developing funds but they haven't done squat in years. So, everything I buy is domestic and has done quite well. Large caps, small caps, value and growth, reit, etc. etc. Been very very good.
I get it, domestic has been very good so it will continue unabated. OK.
Sally Vix wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Of course that is purely subjective. The All Country World Index is still down -3.74% while the S&P 500 is up +1.39% over the past year. My 2.75% CDs are looking pretty good in comparison.
The international market has been depressed for a long time now. I quit buying international funds years ago. The "ideal" portfolio would recommend international funds as wells as developing funds but they haven't done squat in years. So, everything I buy is domestic and has done quite well. Large caps, small caps, value and growth, reit, etc. etc. Been very very good.
not accurate to say that foreign markets have been bad for years. It all depends on what start date you pick, but for the last three years, foreign markets have done well. Not as well as the US, but above trend results.
3 year returns, per year:
US (VTI) : +17%/yr
Overseas Developed (VEA): +10%/yr
Emerging Markets (VWO): +15%/yr
But yeah, over different time spans the results are worse.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Sally Vix wrote:
They were fortunate. The market had widely recovered and they did very well.
Of course that is purely subjective. The All Country World Index is still down -3.74% while the S&P 500 is up +1.39% over the past year. My 2.75% CDs are looking pretty good in comparison.
The S&P is up about 8% since you bought CDs at 2.75%.
Chines wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Of course that is purely subjective. The All Country World Index is still down -3.74% while the S&P 500 is up +1.39% over the past year. My 2.75% CDs are looking pretty good in comparison.
The S&P is up about 8% since you bought CDs at 2.75%.
That’s because:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=StTqXEQ2l-YGhost of Igloi wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
Buy and hold does not have to mean 100% stock portfolio. A good strategy might be that as the investor gets closer and closer to retirement, they start using new capital to buy more and more fixed assets, bonds, CDs, etc., but still leave their equities intact within the buy and hold strategy. How much? Well, RothIRA.com recommends that a 60 year old be 50% to 60% in stocks. Link below. So, when J Hardy and Sally recommend that the majority of the retirees holding be in stocks, they are consistent with that recommendation (in that 50% or greater constitutes a majority).
Another thing to consider is when the assets will be needed, and for a higher net worth individual, a higher percentage could be invested in stocks because they will have the time necessary to ride out a downturn and not be forced to sell at a loss than would someone with less financial resources at their disposal.
link:
https://www.rothira.com/staying-in-the-stock-market-in-your-60sTheoretical, fine and dandy but the practical application less rosy. The person that retired in 2000 had a stock portfolio that shrank 59% by 2009, and withdrawals of the equity bucket during that period would have made it impossible to recover with the market some thirteen years later. I believe a current retiree faces a more dire scenario.
That sounds almost plausible until you realize that in order the person who retired in 2000 would have returned to their all time high by 2007.
You cherry pick the all time highest point, then compare it against the point of the furthest dip. You know that it doesn't work like that. Reality is much more nuanced. Their stocks were undoubtedly bought well before the peak in 2000 (read: at a lower price), and there was a good stretch during that period when an investor could have sold while the market was rebounding, perhaps at or near break even.
By all appearances, it seems that you just try to create a scenario that could be as ugly as is possible, though a real life situation is anything but that.
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