Ghost of Igloi wrote:
have to laugh at thinking a thursday close at 2597 SPX is bearish but a friday close at 2620 SPX would be bullish.
I mean really.
Today's rationalization that I'm repeating over and over feel better about my short position : LOW VOLUME
Just wait until big institutions DUMP EVERYTHING and we see a massive -10% day.
Seriously though, every company is gonna miss earnings this quarter.
that's funny, because according the Factset, the earnings revisions for the 4Q are in line with historical norms. You really think companies are hiding all this from analysts? It doesn't work that way.
Take a look at page 2. Shows revisions for the upcoming earnings have come down 3.8%. That is larger in in recent quarters, but about what we tend to get, when we look past 2018. If every company was going to miss, that 3.8% number would be far larger. Companies can't legally hide bad news that much - they have to pre-announce if the quarter self destructed.
It is interesting to note that the bottom-up EPS estimate for CY 2019 decreased by 2.3% (to $173.94 from $178.05)
during the fourth quarter. This decline was larger than the 5-year average (-1.8%) decrease in the annual bottom-up
EPS estimate during the fourth quarter, but smaller than the 10-year (-3.6%), 15-year (-2.4%) and 20-year (-3.1%)
average decreases in the annual bottom-up EPS estimate during the fourth quarter.
and a 3.8% miss is already factored into the numbers. And stocks are down around 15%. So I'm not seeing your worry.
So basically the argument seems to be that it's priced in.
Just in the past week, we've learned that Apple, Samsung, Macy's, and like every single air line has missed or cut guidance before earnings even come out. And we've rallied everyday since the day after post-Apple bloodbath? This is just the beginning and I do expect companies to start missing in the upcoming earnings season. Maybe for some, it won't be a big miss, but since everyone guided down last quarter it'll look extra bad that companies can't even beat rock-bottom guidance.
The Fed is projecting 2.3% GDP growth this year and 2.6% for the next quarter (down from 3.3.% in the last quarter) and stocks are only now 10% off their highs. This is 20% or more bona fide bear market projections and we've gotten an entire years worth of gains in like 10 trading days.