Down goes the Dow

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  • Ghost of Igloi
    1 year ago 12/04/2018 9:27am CST
    re: agip
    Forum Index
    agip wrote:

    Not my reaI name wrote:

    Ghost of Igloi wrote:

    J. Hardy wrote:

    agip wrote:

    Gruntz wrote:

    A big day for the markets and not a peep from mellon or any of the bulls. Could Igy have been wrong about them?


    I'm trying not to be an jerk here at times like this.


    Please keep trying, agip. Like it or not, you are the conscience of this thread. For that, I thank you.


    agip is a good person, but sorry, a Bullish view on the market does not carry any greater weight in the conscience of man, or this thread.


    I think his point was that you recently called out mellon for only posting when the markets are up. Anyway that’s what I took away from it.


    that wasn't my point, not exactly.

    Just seems to me being triumphalist in a debate/disagreement situation is just a$$holery. I'm not accusing anyone of that - just explaining my post.

    And anyway, he who is right about the market this week will be wrong about the market next week.


    I understood your point agip. My comment was directed to the “conscience of the thread” post.
  • Racket
    registered
    1 year ago 12/04/2018 11:44am CST
    re: Ghost of Igloi
    Forum Index

    RIDING THIS DROP ALL THE WAY DOWN BOYS! THE END IS NIGH AND PUTS ARE $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
  • Ghost of Igloi
    1 year ago 12/04/2018 11:56am CST
    re: Racket
    Forum Index

    Price action gets more similar to a Bear Market every day. Sucks/keeps people in while the trend deteriorates.
  • Racket
    registered
    1 year ago 12/04/2018 11:59am CST
    re: Ghost of Igloi
    Forum Index
    Ghost of Igloi wrote:

    Price action gets more similar to a Bear Market every day. Sucks/keeps people in while the trend deteriorates.


    VIX making me drool right now.

    Trade wars are good and easy to win indeed >:)
  • Racket
    registered
    1 year ago 12/04/2018 12:23pm CST
    re: Racket
    Forum Index

    Let me just check and see how my calls on gold ETFs are doing and OH MY GOD THAT'S MONEY
  • Ghost of Igloi
    1 year ago 12/04/2018 12:25pm CST
    re: Racket
    Forum Index
    Racket wrote:

    Ghost of Igloi wrote:

    Price action gets more similar to a Bear Market every day. Sucks/keeps people in while the trend deteriorates.


    VIX making me drool right now.

    Trade wars are good and easy to win indeed >:)


    Of course a trade war is a blunder. However global central banks made the biggest mistake in their insane monetary policies which have painted them in a corner. This set the stage for where we are today.
  • agip
    registered
    1 year ago 12/04/2018 12:25pm CST
    re: Ghost of Igloi
    Forum Index
    Ghost of Igloi wrote:

    Price action gets more similar to a Bear Market every day. Sucks/keeps people in while the trend deteriorates.


    this correction is mirroring almost exactly the Jan-March 2018 correction. Which makes sense since the same machines are doing all the damage.

    If the mirroring continues, we'll drop back down to the correction lows by xmas/new years...and then start a real trudge upwards.

    Seriously - take a look - they are very similar, including all these ultra jagged ups and downs.
  • Racket
    registered
    1 year ago 12/04/2018 12:42pm CST
    re: agip
    Forum Index
    agip wrote:

    Ghost of Igloi wrote:

    Price action gets more similar to a Bear Market every day. Sucks/keeps people in while the trend deteriorates.


    this correction is mirroring almost exactly the Jan-March 2018 correction. Which makes sense since the same machines are doing all the damage.

    If the mirroring continues, we'll drop back down to the correction lows by xmas/new years...and then start a real trudge upwards.

    Seriously - take a look - they are very similar, including all these ultra jagged ups and downs.


    2-10 is ready to invert, It's so close. Also lol @ SPY about to fall right through support.

    If 2-10 inverts I'm going all in on a VXX vertical call spread. The selling on Thursday (thanks a lot H.W. ) would be unholy.
  • agip
    registered
    1 year ago 12/04/2018 1:08pm CST
    re: Racket
    Forum Index
    Racket wrote:

    agip wrote:

    Ghost of Igloi wrote:

    Price action gets more similar to a Bear Market every day. Sucks/keeps people in while the trend deteriorates.


    this correction is mirroring almost exactly the Jan-March 2018 correction. Which makes sense since the same machines are doing all the damage.

    If the mirroring continues, we'll drop back down to the correction lows by xmas/new years...and then start a real trudge upwards.

    Seriously - take a look - they are very similar, including all these ultra jagged ups and downs.


    2-10 is ready to invert, It's so close. Also lol @ SPY about to fall right through support.

    If 2-10 inverts I'm going all in on a VXX vertical call spread. The selling on Thursday (thanks a lot H.W. ) would be unholy.

    2-10 inverting predicts, with a very very small sample, that there will be a recession sometime in the next 2 years. Good luck using that as a market timing signal.
  • Racket
    registered
    1 year ago 12/04/2018 1:25pm CST
    re: agip
    Forum Index
    agip wrote:

    Racket wrote:

    agip wrote:

    Ghost of Igloi wrote:

    Price action gets more similar to a Bear Market every day. Sucks/keeps people in while the trend deteriorates.


    this correction is mirroring almost exactly the Jan-March 2018 correction. Which makes sense since the same machines are doing all the damage.

    If the mirroring continues, we'll drop back down to the correction lows by xmas/new years...and then start a real trudge upwards.

    Seriously - take a look - they are very similar, including all these ultra jagged ups and downs.


    2-10 is ready to invert, It's so close. Also lol @ SPY about to fall right through support.

    If 2-10 inverts I'm going all in on a VXX vertical call spread. The selling on Thursday (thanks a lot H.W. ) would be unholy.


    2-10 inverting predicts, with a very very small sample, that there will be a recession sometime in the next 2 years. Good luck using that as a market timing signal.


    If it inverts, you don't think people will just straight up panic sell? I bet it will be enough to shoot volatility up.
  • Noop
    1 year ago 12/04/2018 1:37pm CST
    re: agip
    Forum Index
    agip wrote:

    Ghost of Igloi wrote:

    Price action gets more similar to a Bear Market every day. Sucks/keeps people in while the trend deteriorates.


    this correction is mirroring almost exactly the Jan-March 2018 correction. Which makes sense since the same machines are doing all the damage.

    If the mirroring continues, we'll drop back down to the correction lows by xmas/new years...and then start a real trudge upwards.

    Seriously - take a look - they are very similar, including all these ultra jagged ups and downs.


    Nah. Up a little here and there followed by down more. And then the big crap-out.

    Get out early boys.
  • agip
    registered
    1 year ago 12/04/2018 1:41pm CST
    re: Racket
    Forum Index
    Racket wrote:

    agip wrote:

    Racket wrote:

    agip wrote:

    Ghost of Igloi wrote:

    Price action gets more similar to a Bear Market every day. Sucks/keeps people in while the trend deteriorates.


    this correction is mirroring almost exactly the Jan-March 2018 correction. Which makes sense since the same machines are doing all the damage.

    If the mirroring continues, we'll drop back down to the correction lows by xmas/new years...and then start a real trudge upwards.

    Seriously - take a look - they are very similar, including all these ultra jagged ups and downs.


    2-10 is ready to invert, It's so close. Also lol @ SPY about to fall right through support.

    If 2-10 inverts I'm going all in on a VXX vertical call spread. The selling on Thursday (thanks a lot H.W. ) would be unholy.


    2-10 inverting predicts, with a very very small sample, that there will be a recession sometime in the next 2 years. Good luck using that as a market timing signal.


    If it inverts, you don't think people will just straight up panic sell? I bet it will be enough to shoot volatility up.


    I have no idea. but I have learned that very little is automatic in this business. If things were automatic and predictable, active trading would beat passive investing. it doesn't. People can't use their brains to beat the market. As embarrassing as that is.

    but if you are buying and selling volatility rather than stocks, things might be different.
  • agip
    registered
    1 year ago 12/04/2018 2:08pm CST
    re: agip
    Forum Index
    agip wrote:

    Racket wrote:

    agip wrote:

    Racket wrote:

    agip wrote:

    Ghost of Igloi wrote:

    Price action gets more similar to a Bear Market every day. Sucks/keeps people in while the trend deteriorates.


    this correction is mirroring almost exactly the Jan-March 2018 correction. Which makes sense since the same machines are doing all the damage.

    If the mirroring continues, we'll drop back down to the correction lows by xmas/new years...and then start a real trudge upwards.

    Seriously - take a look - they are very similar, including all these ultra jagged ups and downs.


    2-10 is ready to invert, It's so close. Also lol @ SPY about to fall right through support.

    If 2-10 inverts I'm going all in on a VXX vertical call spread. The selling on Thursday (thanks a lot H.W. ) would be unholy.


    2-10 inverting predicts, with a very very small sample, that there will be a recession sometime in the next 2 years. Good luck using that as a market timing signal.


    If it inverts, you don't think people will just straight up panic sell? I bet it will be enough to shoot volatility up.


    I have no idea. but I have learned that very little is automatic in this business. If things were automatic and predictable, active trading would beat passive investing. it doesn't. People can't use their brains to beat the market. As embarrassing as that is.

    but if you are buying and selling volatility rather than stocks, things might be different.


    here you go, racket. This is just some dude so he may be making things up, but from his numbers, when the 3/5 invert, the market has climbed for two more years before bear markets started. So using an inversion as a market timing event is deeply flawed.
    https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1069943994304618496
  • Ghost of Igloi
    1 year ago 12/04/2018 2:41pm CST
    re: agip
    Forum Index

    “markets in turmoil”
  • Ghost of Igloi
    1 year ago 12/04/2018 2:54pm CST
    re: Ghost of Igloi
    Forum Index

    Get Kudlow on CNBC.....quick
  • agip
    registered
    1 year ago 12/04/2018 3:01pm CST
    re: Ghost of Igloi
    Forum Index
    Ghost of Igloi wrote:

    “markets in turmoil”


    didn't someone calculate that the CNBC 'markets in turmoil' graphic is a near-perfect buy indicator?

    something like 100% of the time they used it, the market was up 6 months later.
  • Racket
    registered
    1 year ago 12/04/2018 3:03pm CST
    re: agip
    Forum Index
    agip wrote:

    Ghost of Igloi wrote:

    “markets in turmoil”


    didn't someone calculate that the CNBC 'markets in turmoil' graphic is a near-perfect buy indicator?

    something like 100% of the time they used it, the market was up 6 months later.


    The yearly chart for the Dow is amazing. You could have profited with any position multiple times if you held for the right amount of time.
  • Racket
    registered
    1 year ago 12/04/2018 3:05pm CST
    re: agip
    Forum Index
    agip wrote:

    but if you are buying and selling volatility rather than stocks, things might be different.


    Put half my account in VXX and UVXY vertical call spreads. If Thursday or Friday is a panic sell/buy then the payout will be more than Flagpole's best 50 year 401k wet dreams
  • agip
    registered
    1 year ago 12/04/2018 3:10pm CST
    re: Racket
    Forum Index
    Racket wrote:

    agip wrote:

    Ghost of Igloi wrote:

    “markets in turmoil”


    didn't someone calculate that the CNBC 'markets in turmoil' graphic is a near-perfect buy indicator?

    something like 100% of the time they used it, the market was up 6 months later.


    The yearly chart for the Dow is amazing. You could have profited with any position multiple times if you held for the right amount of time.


    if i had been 6'5", good looking and a movie star in 1988 I might have slept with winona ryder.
  • mellon
    1 year ago 12/04/2018 3:23pm CST
    re: agip
    Forum Index

    Thought I better check in since it was a down day.

    Sorry, no panic here. Let's see where we're at on January 4th.