Racket if you have some time read through some good investment twitter feeds. Jim O'Shaughnessy, Meb Faber, Josh Brown, and many others. The unifying thread of great investors is humility and staying with a strategy. Investing for the long run is not complicated. It should be very simple, and we should all admit we have no idea how the markets will behave over the short/inter term.
The best investors keep it simple, don't talk fancy, and don't let fear guide them.
You seem to want to feel smart and not be a sucker. Yeah those things have mental value. But they don't make you rich. Having a strategy, sticking to it over decades makes you rich.
Many very smart people are still waiting for the next downturn, since oh 2008. Don't be that person.