Back after a few months, some readers may remember I made a naïve "prediction" of the S&P 500 back in March. Checking in with an update, here's the original prediction, first in natural scale then (easier to read) log scale:
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Here's a zoomed view of the last couple of years, with the post-prediction values in orange:
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The market continues to wend along within the 10 to 90 %ile limits on the post-March "prediction, and is right now hanging around the median prediction trend, meaning there's a 50-50 chance of the market continuing above or below the median trend going forward.
And there you have it...!
$0.02