Down goes the Dow

Uh, you're talking to yourself.

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Pointing Out the Obvious wrote:

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Pointing Out the Obvious wrote:

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Maserati wrote:

Dow closes the week at 16,413, down 159.8 or 1.0% on the day.

Just like the previous equaling of the high, to me this means nothing other than no gains yet for the year. Of course I'm not making anything in cash right now either, but it's slightly more stable than the markets---for now.

I haven't like this year at all, too much fiddle-faddle (that's a technical term, for those of you who don't know). It means lots of activity without lots of progress. Sure it keeps you busy, but I'd rather be busy doing other things, like looking for real property, which I'm now doing.

I find myself considering the property tax burden going forward, and therefore looking at the fiscal situation of various jurisdictions. What can I say? Yuck. Good thing it's not the sole factor.

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Anyone with no gains for the year is at the least incompetent if not brain dead.

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You managed the brain dead part before the year even began.

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Maserati wrote:

Dow closes the week at 16,413, down 159.8 or 1.0% on the day.

Just like the previous equaling of the high, to me this means nothing other than no gains yet for the year.

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Orang Pendek wrote:

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fisky wrote:

This could be a market top and bull trend reversal, at least for the next few weeks.

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I betting you're wrong.

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We'll know more after the earnings reports next week.

Monday morning interim update:

DJIA down .4%
NASDAQ down .2%

Still lots of fiddle-faddle, still not regretting not being in equities at the moment (except for a small bit).

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Randy Oldman wrote:

We'll know more after the earnings reports next week.

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Any idea why Google is down over 1%?

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agip wrote:

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Randy Oldman wrote:

We'll know more after the earnings reports next week.

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this reminded me of a little known issue about stock market investing- I read somewhere that the market's course is essentially not correlated to company earnings.

I think the paper's findings was that interest rates were the most important factor, but I don't remember the details.

Just funny that what seems to be the most important factor - how much money the companies are making - is a small factor is determing the direction of the stock market.

If I am remembering correctly the paper's findings.

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Google is long overdue for a correction. It's moved up pretty steadily since Jun 2012, nearly doubling in price.

A much better question should be "where is Google's price going from here? A cursory examination hints that it might be going down to test the 200 day moving average (currently at 510). It's successfully bounced off the 200 DMA twice in the past couple of years. http://scharts.co/PFQYaL

Mid-morning, the slide continues, now down 0.6-0.7% on the day.

Also when I was talking about gains I was talking about post-tax inflation adjusted gains.

Still not significant IMHO.

Companies across America are blaming the brutal winter for weak first-quarter results, but investors are expecting a quick rebound in the second quarter and will likely judge harshly companies that are less optimistic about a recovery.

The ice, snow and freezing temperatures kept consumers out of stores, grounded planes and snarled transportation, and raised heating costs for businesses and homes alike in the first three months of the year. Weather was mentioned in 219 S&P 500 earnings conference calls between Jan. 1 and April 1, compared with just 125 in the first three months of 2013.
Investors in the past have generally cast a jaundiced eye at companies that blame the weather for poor results, but this winter was different.

"The truth is the weather did really hurt things," said Randy Warren, chief investment officer of Warren Financial Service in Exton, Pennsylvania.

So "people will be really looking for the guidance this time to see whether the CEOs are going to tell us that they've already seen a pickup, a spring thaw."

Recent data on U.S. auto sales and housing activity have suggest a snapback from the weak weather. Economists at Bank of America/Merrill Lynch forecast the U.S. economy will grow between 3 and 3.5 percent in the next three quarters, noting increased small business hiring intentions and a stronger outlook for capital expenditures.

That would be an improvement from median forecasts for 1.9 percent growth in the first quarter.

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Randy Oldman wrote:

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agip wrote:

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Randy Oldman wrote:

We'll know more after the earnings reports next week.

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this reminded me of a little known issue about stock market investing- I read somewhere that the market's course is essentially not correlated to company earnings.

I think the paper's findings was that interest rates were the most important factor, but I don't remember the details.

Just funny that what seems to be the most important factor - how much money the companies are making - is a small factor is determing the direction of the stock market.

If I am remembering correctly the paper's findings.

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I think you're right in the long-term.

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Bigfoot Investments wrote:

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Randy Oldman wrote:

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agip wrote:

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Randy Oldman wrote:

We'll know more after the earnings reports next week.

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this reminded me of a little known issue about stock market investing- I read somewhere that the market's course is essentially not correlated to company earnings.

I think the paper's findings was that interest rates were the most important factor, but I don't remember the details.

Just funny that what seems to be the most important factor - how much money the companies are making - is a small factor is determing the direction of the stock market.

If I am remembering correctly the paper's findings.

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I think you're right in the long-term.

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By this you mean that in the long run we are all dead?

In the long term stock market returns have to be closely correlated with company earnings. Without this, it is a mathematical certainty that the market's PE would gravitate toward 0.0 or infinite.

In the short term interest rates are certainly the primary driving factor. But I thought that this was well understood.

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Pointing Out the Obvious wrote:

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Could he be more wrong? wrote:

Posted March 29...

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K55 wrote:

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pine bark wrote:

So,...when is this correction happening? Right now the market seems overvalued and behaving irrationally.

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Next week. And it will be far more than a correction

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Meanwhile at the end of "next week"...

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Flagpole wrote:

Dow touched a new record high today on jobs reports.

Just sayin'.

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Hard to believe that's the real K55 (K5). The real K55 appears to be a bright, if troubled, fellow and not prone to making specific predictions for a particular week.

I'm calling imposter.

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"The ice, snow and freezing temperatures kept consumers out of stores, grounded planes and snarled transportation, and raised heating costs for businesses and homes alike in the first three months of the year."

Therefore, online retailers, salt providers, brush and shovel suppliers, ground transportation, extremely local businesses, towing and recovery, and heating fuel suppliers must all be doing great.

That simplistic logic works neither way. All sorts of morons are looking for an escape hatch.

Yes, there's a huge market in salt and shovel supplies, almost eclipsing the motor industry.

You mean like the 4wd/light truck/SUV component of the motor industry, which vehicles have superior performance in the kind of conditions just experienced, not to mention the winterizing/repair/auto parts components of the motor industry, who have had booming business due to recent conditions?

Now down 0.9-1.0% on the day for Monday.

How are your Vanguards doing agip?

Again, IMO this isn't yet significant one way or another, but still presents no particular reason to be in the market at the moment.