I could elaborate more, but off the top of my head here are some random responses to your criticism:
1. I first posted here 3/2/2015. I am not the original poster. At that time I said the risk in the markets were underappreciated, and that included bonds. Less than one week prior to the election on 11/4/2016 the market was at the same level as when I first posted.
2. Concerns centered around the Trump victory, Brexit and a slowing global economy lead to the Shanghai Accord and a coordinated central bank infusion of capital into the global economy. Driving yield seeking speculation to record levels never seen before. Beyond stock market gains in 2017 we saw $Trillions of negative yielding bonds, something that has never happened in 4,000 years of financial history.
3. The fall tax package passed by the Rebublican lead Congress fueled corporate welfare boosting the stock market and economy for one last sugar high. Not only was this ill timed but sets up the economy and the stock market for greater mean reversion down the road. It encouage more financial engineering at the peak of the economic cycle driving up the deficit to unsustainable levels.
4. Warren Buffett has abandoned his value oriented roots. He and Charlie Munger are more of the face “cheerleading” side of BRK, possibly setting up a revision of their reputations down the road. They are human, they bought IBM and sold all their positionearlier this year. BRK owns a fair share of cyclical businesses. AAPL charges a lot for thier products, has not come up with anything unique in years, and primarily buys back their stock. The stock will be unlikely to grow at the same rate as in the past and their technology will eventually be cloned by others. BRK made a good trade that they will eat later.
5. The fact that FAANMG stocks are trading at multiples of where they were 3 1/2 years ago is not an endorsement in my view. As I pointed out recently MSFT had less revenue in 2017 than 2015 and the company’s debt is 2 1/2 times larger. So the only justification I can see in the purchase is for someone else to pay a higher price for the stock. Of course that willingness to pay up will change quicker than one thinks as we saw with FB last week.
6. We have a divided electorate lead by politicians that avoid the most pressing national challenges. The population is oblivous to risks as they live large on an ever growing level of debt.
7. Optimism is good when balanced against reality. Unfortunately investors have been spoiled the last few years by fake market gains. Gains that can only be justified on the basis of selling a security to someone else at a higher price.
8. Greed and fear are common human emotions, but are often times fueled by poor decisions.
9. If you are a student of market history you would have been cautious 3 1/2 years ago. Nothing that has taken place in the last 3 1/2 years is durable. In fact the current investment environment is the worst in our lifetime. At least in 2000 and 2007 the 10 Year Treasury traded at a yields of 6% and 5% respectively.
10. I stand by my original statement, which does not argue for zero allocations to stocks or bonds. And it does not mean do not own FAAMNG. It does argue for one to balance the allocation to match liquidity needs and risk tolerance, something most investors are clearly not doing today.
I wish you well on your investments.