seattle prattle wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
And how long will that take? Another 3-1/2 years?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
No, it is happening now. You just don’t see it.
You wrote that on 5/3/18, a week ago. The S&P is up 3-1/2% since then and it was well of the low of the recent downturn even then.
Is it still happening now?
Because to me, the recovery off the modest downturn hardly looks like the 60% sell-off you've been predicting for the last 3-1/2 years.
And btw, my portfolio just set a new high.
Timing is everything, my friend. Predictions on market directions are not worth much without it.
This quote from John Hussman earier in the week seems appropriate:
“Markets peak when investors feel confidence about the economy, are impressed by recent market gains, and are comforted by the perception of safety and resilience that follows an extended market advance. So several features generally go together: 1) extreme optimism about the economy and corporate earnings, 2) depressed risk-premiums, and 3) steep market valuations. Poor subsequent market returns ultimately follow, though not always immediately.”