agip wrote:Not many know this, but ex the US, stock markets have gone nowhere for 10+ years.
The tricky part is to figure out if this is bearish or bullish.
I don't know much, but that is one thing I know. Most of my portfolio has always been outside the US, since I'm not from there, and its market is largely a mystery to me. The DAX came close, but Shanghai was a miserable failure since January 2008:
(indices set to a value of 1 in Jan 2008 as a basis for comparison)
Toronto (TSX) and Brazil (IBOVESPA) were similarly turgid:
I tend to think it's bullish...coiled spring, etc.
I think there is a good argument that instead of the regular 5%...emerging markets should be far, far more than that for the next 10-20 years in portfolios.