Down goes the Dow

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Gruntz wrote:

Don't be silly. He didn't read the article. If he did, he would know that it contradicts one of his most basic tenets. Once again, he got suckered by the headline.

I guess you two can’t interpret simple sentences. Or too blind to muppetology....

“As the year went on, people got more confident,” he said. “The market was never tested at all” last year. There was this “buy-the-dip mentality” every time the market dipped 1% or 2%. But one of his “bigger fears” for 2018 was this very buy-the-dip mentality. People buy when the market goes down 1% or 2%, and “it goes down 5%, then it goes down 8% — and they turn into sellers, and then they get an exponential move to the downside.”

J.J. Kinahan from the posted article.

Hey, everybody, he finally read the article! Better late than never.

Of course, he totally missed the point. Or maybe he’s purposely being deceptive...again.

? as usual nothing to say.....

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

? as usual nothing to say.....

Read it again. I said you missed the point, or was purposely deceptive. Take your pick.

?

As usual, nothing to say.

Donald J. Trump

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Will be making a decision soon on the appointment of new Chief Economic Advisor. Many people wanting the job - will choose wisely!

5:49 PM · Mar 6, 2018

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Donald J. Trump

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Will be making a decision soon on the appointment of new Chief Economic Advisor. Many people wanting the job - will choose wisely!

5:49 PM · Mar 6, 2018

...invest in Vodka.

ghost of twenty nine wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Donald J. Trump

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Will be making a decision soon on the appointment of new Chief Economic Advisor. Many people wanting the job - will choose wisely!

5:49 PM · Mar 6, 2018

...invest in Vodka.

? same serial harrasser , different handle....insane too.....

?

As usual, nothing to say.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Trews wrote:

Serial truther... ?

? same serial harrasser , different handle....insane too.....

First, disagreeing is not the same as harassing. Second, I’m not the only one here who disagrees with you.

Two Wall Street pros say this bull market, which turns 9 on Friday, is just getting started. The long-term trend of rising stock prices could last a total of 20 years or more before the uptrend ends. But that doesn’t mean short-term swoons won’t spook investors along the way, they warn.

“I don’t think this is an aging bull,” says Brian Belski, chief investment strategist at BMO Capital Markets. “Our market call, which we initiated in 2009, is that this bull will last 20 to 25 years. We are not even halfway through it.”

Tune out the negativity, says Belski. “The expansion in the economy and corporate earnings is just beginning” after years of malaise, he says. There’s no real signs of euphoria in the broad market like in bitcoin or marijuana stocks. Cash is still flowing out of – not into -- stock funds, he says. And rising interest rates isn’t the death knell for stocks that bears say it is, he adds.

Mike Wilson, U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, is calling this a “secular” bull market — or one that lasts decades, not years, similar to the long upturn that began in the early 1980s and didn’t peter out until 2000 (despite some brief, yet sizable drops along the way, such as the 1987 market crash).

The next bear market, or 20% drop, won’t be like the mega-bears of 2007-09 or the dot-com crash in 2000, Wilson says. Instead, the market’s major trend will be up for years to come, despite periodic bouts of weakness like the 10%-plus drop in February and short bouts of despair and even bigger drops.

Still, for the next 18 months, investors should brace themselves. “Expect more volatility and 10% drops,” Wilson says.

I just read an interesting counter-intuitive idea.

The worry as I understand it, is that since computer trading is so much of wall street, that is a risk because they all do the same strategies, for the most part. So they all buy at once and sell at once.

But we've seen volatility lower and lower. Until the last few weeks anyway. How does that square?

Could be that when humans are making decisions...they are the ones who all do the same thing at once. Greed and fear. But the machines are cold hearted b@stards. They dont' get sweaty armpits or have a bad day.

And maybe there are enough computer driven strategies that they aren't all doing the same thing anymore.

Maybe we're in for a period of more rational, less crazy stock market returns. Sure looks like the evidence is in that direction - one correction in how many years? And maybe that justifies a higher valuation to the market, if the market will have less volatility going forward.

The those same machines replicate each others trades. In most cases taking no fundamental analysis for the purchases, and with zero skin in the game.

the idea is that yeah they USED to replicate each others' trade. But now, with AI and continuous refinement, they don't anymore, and they have created a smoother, less manic market than the people did.

agip,

OK. Good 5k last weekend by the way.

Igy

Agip, what handle are you currently using on the Trump thread?

There is no way you stopped posting there.

What the hell! Don't these guys pay attention to history?

Purple Martin wrote:

Mike Wilson, U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, is calling this a “secular” bull market — or one that lasts decades, not years, similar to the long upturn that began in the early 1980s and didn’t peter out until 2000 (despite some brief, yet sizable drops along the way, such as the 1987 market crash).

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Mike does good work.

Thanks for noticing.

Igy