Think whatever you want.
Think whatever you want.
J. Hardy wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Squirm like a worm.
That certainly seems to be what you are doing. Classic avoidance. I’ll take that to mean you don’t know what you are talking about.
You, sir, are a quick study. Well done.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
OF course buy stocks below S&P 1200.
But the question is, do you actually think it's going there? No, really. In all seriousness, these things are usually discussed in terms of a probability. So what do you think is the probability that we see S&P 1200 within the next 18 mnths?
90%
If you really believe this ; your portfolio should be : short S&P 500 - 60 % ; LONG 40 % . The Risk - Reward is way in your favor !
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=2015&firstMonth=1&endYear=2018&lastMonth=12&endDate=02%2F01%2F2018&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&showYield=false&reinvestDividends=true&benchmark=VFINX&symbol1=VTSMX&allocation1_1=40&allocation1_2=40&symbol2=AUEIX&allocation2_3=40&symbol3=SH&allocation3_1=60&symbol4=PSTIX&allocation4_2=60&allocation4_3=60Over the last 3 years ; the S&P 500 is up 45.61 % and various 60 - 40 short - long portfolios are only down .85 % -7.62 % !
Yes following your lead, he is learning to squirm like a worm.
la gente ésta muy loca wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
90%
If you really believe this ; your portfolio should be : short S&P 500 - 60 % ; LONG 40 % . The Risk - Reward is way in your favor !
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=2015&firstMonth=1&endYear=2018&lastMonth=12&endDate=02%2F01%2F2018&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&showYield=false&reinvestDividends=true&benchmark=VFINX&symbol1=VTSMX&allocation1_1=40&allocation1_2=40&symbol2=AUEIX&allocation2_3=40&symbol3=SH&allocation3_1=60&symbol4=PSTIX&allocation4_2=60&allocation4_3=60Over the last 3 years ; the S&P 500 is up 45.61 % and various 60 - 40 short - long portfolios are only down .85 % -7.62 % !
muy loco,
I do believe we will reach at least 1,200 and believe your allocations ideas are fine. Nothing I could ever recommend. However, I have been moving my MADVX and GFFFX positions to AUEIX.
Igy
[
So what do you think is the probability that we see S&P 1200 within the next 18 mnths?
90%
Igy[/quote]
That's better! It was 100% 36 months ago. And we know that was spot on.
The direction of the market is your weather vane.
NOTE: As Reported (GAAP) Q4,'17 has declined to $26.95 from the year-end estimate of $31.77, approximatetly $41.3 billion. Market trading at a trailing GAAP PE of 25.70 higher than the right before the Financial Crisis.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
The direction of the market is your weather vane.
Sure would be if you could find a weather vane that points up.
Or maybe i'm just a little giddy with the earnings announcement today of Apple, Amazon, and Google.
OK, but I saw little there to get excited about. Of course most analyst were gushing for something to salivate about. I would be looking at the 10 Year and 30 Year Treasury over the short run.
seattle prattle wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
The direction of the market is your weather vane.
Sure would be if you could find a weather vane that points up.
Or maybe i'm just a little giddy with the earnings announcement today of Apple, Amazon, and Google.
AMZN would have little or no earnings with out AWS (Amazon Web Services) their web hosting/cloud business, yet you and most investors think it is their retailing business. See page 12 of today’s earning report.
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9Njg3NTU4fENoaWxkSUQ9Mzk3ODEwfFR5cGU9MQ==&t=1They’ll get a pass until it matters.
I hven't had a chance to look at it yet, but not likely to take your adivce on treasuries/ bonds/whatever. Let your winners ride. That's the slogan that has served me well up to now.
Seattle,
Making no recommendations. What I meant to say, the recent rise in yield of the 10 and 30 Year Treasury was having more influence on the market.
On the AMZN earnings report page 9 shows losses on international retail business wiped out the profit in the US. AWS took them to profitability. Actually has been that way for awhile. But investors are sold a story and they buy it for now. It is all in the numbers I provided if you want to look at the facts, or just buy the narrative.
Igy
You’re the only one talking about Amazon retail. The rest of us are anchored in reality.
Get your head out of the sand wrote:
You’re the only one talking about Amazon retail. The rest of us are anchored in reality.
Explain what that reality is based on. Or do you actually have the ability to do that?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Get your head out of the sand wrote:
You’re the only one talking about Amazon retail. The rest of us are anchored in reality.
Explain what that reality is based on. Or do you actually have the ability to do that?
Potential future earnings, of course.
Do you not know how the markets work?
Get your head out of the sand wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Explain what that reality is based on. Or do you actually have the ability to do that?
Potential future earnings, of course.
Do you not know how the markets work?
Is that so, how much do earnings need to grow?
Get your head out of the sand wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Explain what that reality is based on. Or do you actually have the ability to do that?
Potential future earnings, of course.
Do you not know how the markets work?
Have you considered that it is actually you with your head in the sand? Do you realize that to get to a reasonable valuation Amazon would likely have to triple, perhaps quadruple what they currently charge?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Have you considered that it is actually you with your head in the sand? Do you realize that to get to a reasonable valuation Amazon would likely have to triple, perhaps quadruple what they currently charge?
You obviously do not understand how businesses work.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
NOTE: As Reported (GAAP) Q4,'17 has declined to $26.95 from the year-end estimate of $31.77, approximatetly $41.3 billion. Market trading at a trailing GAAP PE of 25.70 higher than the right before the Financial Crisis.
Since you think estimates are such a big deal, we should point out that the estimates for subsequent quarters smash records.
If you’d rather deal with real numbers, the latest quarter for which actual results are completed was also a record.
What was your point again?
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