beachmouse wrote:
While she could get a decent amount going pro now, the big crossover-mass market endorsements start lining up for Rio in the middle of 2015. Wouldn't be the worst thing for her to go the Missy Franklin route and say she'll compete in college for a year or two and then declare professional status an hour after the 2015 NCAA championships conclude, and then promptly sign deals with General Mills, Procter & Gamble, Johnson & Johnson, etc. the following week.
The situations really aren't comparable. Missy Franklin loves the whole team swimming thing so much that's she's already turned down big money to finish out her HS swimming career and is going to turn down another chunk of change to swim a couple of years at Cal. It doesn't seem like her parents are 100% happy about that decision, but hey, they want their daughter to be happy and they're not going to order her to go pro. The risk is that her swimming declines over the next 2-3 years. Injuries aren't as big an issue in swimming as they are in running, but they certainly do happen, and even great swimmers like Franklin can run into trouble - see, for example, Knutson, Dagny.
Conversely, Mary Cain hasn't shown any particular attachment to team running and seems comfortable doing what her dad and Alberto tell her to. Within the world of T&F, her marketability is about as good as it's every going to be, and outside the world of T&F she's going to be a footnote at the next Olympics and not of interest to the big consumer products companies unless she turns into some kind of 1:56 / 3:56 [or 3:56 / 14:30] double gold medal threat. Here's hoping that happens, but the chances are, what, 10%?
Also, while Franklin is giving up money by swimming in the NCAA system, she will have opportunities to compete against other fully world-class athletes in her events and will be swimming for the coach who led the US women's team in London. If Cain runs in the NCAA system, she will be competing against 2nd tier athletes in her events and will find herself in that same odd situation Rupp did at Oregon.