Will Mary Cain be the first woman to break the 4 minute mile?

Did she really run 55.5 as a high school freshman?

That is really fast. Especially for a distance runner.

If this is true, she has potential to run sub 4.

Based on that list, the following are the 32 youth girls who have run faster at 1500 metres than Mary Cain, along with their current PR and the ages at which each time was run. It will also be noted when an athletes career is still ongoing.

4:10.8(17)-Gelete Burka-3:58.79(23)

4:10.73(16)-Berhane Herpassa-4:07.44(17)

4:10.64(15)-Rose Gerotich Kosgei-did not improve

4:10.43(17)-Huina Xing-4:09.01(19)

4:10.14(17)-Kalkidan Gezahegne-4:00.97(20)-ongoing

4:10.13(16)-Mary Wanjohi Wangari-did not improve

4:10.02(16)-Amerawork Bekele-4:08.30(18)-ongoing

4:09.93(17)-Jessica Judd-ongoing(time was run last year)

4:09.64(17)-Cristina Misaros-did not improve

4:09.48(17)-Faith Chepngetich Kipyegon-4:03.82(18)-ongoing

4:09.48(15)-Huan Wang-did not improve

4:09.46(17)-Chunmei Wang-3:59.48(21)

4:09.37(16)-Cleopatra Palacian-did not improve

4:09.04(17)-Ying Li-4:01.71-(18)

4:08.85(15)-Simona Staicu-did not improve

4:08.79(14)-Jackline Maranga-3:57.41(20)

4:08.70(16)-Kutre Dulecha-3:58.43(19)

4:08.52(17)-Sumei Tao-did not improve

4:08.50(17)-Emebt Etea-did not improve

4:08.29(17)-Yuying Cui-did not improve

4:08.28(17)-Senbere Teferi(17)-4:06.06-ongoing

4:08.21(16)-Veronica Nyaruai Wanjiru-did not improve

4:08.06(17)-Tizita Bogale-4:03.94(18)-ongoing

4:06.87(17)-Zola Pieterse-3:59.96(19)

4:06.77(15)-Georgie Clarke-4:06.50(21)

4:06.71(17)-Glenda Reiser-did not improve

4:06.20(17)-Abebech Negussie-4:06.01(18)

4:06.02(17)-Ana Padureanu-4:04.97(18)

4:04.84(16)-Jingnan Li-did not improve

4:03.96(17)-Meskerem Assefa-4:02.12(26)-ongoing

3:59.81(17)-Yuan Wang-did not improve

3:54.52(16)-Ling Zhang-did not improve

Mary Cain should set her sights on breaking the women's 1500m WR first

Of those ahead of Cain, only Gelete Burka and Meskerem Assefa have had 1500 careers that improved beyond age 21. 14 of the 32 ended their 1500 careers without improving their under-18 mark. Some moved up in distance but a disturbing amount dropped off the map altogether. Ling Zhang, Yuan Wang, Jingnan Li, Yuying Cui, Sumei Tao, Ying Li, and Huang Wang never ran more than a couple races at any distance. I'm guessing that was the product of a HEAVY amount of experimental doping just to chase records. Regarding the Kenyans and Ethiopians, it's hard to say whether or not there was age fraud or if it was just really bad coaching. Regardless, I think it's safe to predict that Mary Cain's career is going to last significantly longer than most of the athletes ahead of her.

Yes. Am a little worried about Rogers. Was running 800/1600 doubles last year.

notfastnotslow wrote:

Lets put this in perspective, Alan Webb, the American record holder in the mile, is ~7 seconds slower than the WR.

Um..maybe my math degrees are causing me to overthink this, but

3:46.91 - 3:43.13 = 7?

haha, yeah nate i was thinking the same thing. someone doesn't know math.

I was on hand to watch Mary Cain's 9:38 yesterday and all I can say is that girl is ridiculous! Can't wait to see what she can do outdoors, let alone her senior year. I'd love to see those HSR's go down to low 4:20's and low 9:20's.

Yeah she will break it.... but the next day she'd be caught doping.

He ran 3:49i. Not 3:46. I believe you should do a little more research.

Well people thought women could never run distance. Anything's possible, It's just how long. Eventually someone will run a sub 9 second 100. Eventually someone will run under 3:10 for the 1500. It's all eventually.

notfastnotslow wrote:

He ran 3:49i. Not 3:46. I believe you should do a little more research.

We are talking about Alan Webb's mile American record right?

Absolutely. The real question is over/under 3:50. I'm betting under.

The short answer to this question is "no"

I think Cain will bring the women's world record under the men's.

seeing Galen Rupp run a 26:48 is all I can take during my lifetime.

notfastnotslow wrote:

Anything's possible, It's just how long. Eventually someone will run a sub 9 second 100. Eventually someone will run under 3:10 for the 1500. It's all eventually.

Moron.

The fastest 1500m times that were not aided by doping or a short course (China) are around 3:55. Everything faster is from countries like GDR, RUS, ROU, ... 3:55/3:56 is where the ETH/KEN start appearing.

3:55 equals roughly 4:14. The first clean runner for the mile is probably SoS @ 4:17. So I see improvement potential for clean runners to get down to 4:14, which is not too far away from the (dirty) WR of 4:12. But 12 more seconds? Not going to happen.

They'd have to improve by 4 seconds per lap. Anyone who knows a tiny bit about T&F knows that this is impossible without drugs.

I was talking about mens times, not womens. And eventually, someone WILL break a certain time that was never thought possible. There's something called evolution, and that is how mitochondria appeared in cells, that is how people will continue to get better. So I am not a moron for saying that.

were you on drugs when you wrote this? Makes no sense.

And also, it could be 1000 years before those records are reached, but they're still being reached, aren't they?