L2Math wrote:
Im sorry but I think you have some basic math problems here. 4:24/4:24 gets a 8:48 not 9:48,
That makes a 3000, not a 2-mile. A 9:48 two-mile is a 9:1x 3000, and it seems like doubling the distance and only slowing from 4:11 to 4:24 is not realistic. Take both the 8% adjustment to 1500/mile // 3000/2-mile and looking at how much runners slow when you double the distance.
Lagat was a 3:26 1500 guy and a 7:28+ 3000 guy when he focus more on distance. Now that is slowing 36 seconds compared to doubling the time. Since Cain's 1500 pace is ~25% slower than 3:26, add 25% to 36 to get 45 seconds. How, add that to 4:11 => 4:31.5 (8%) => 9:03 (doubling) => 9:48 (adding the 45 seconds).
However, Cain is a good 800/1500 runner and has not shown nearly as much of an outstanding nature at 2 miles or 5000m. Thus, she is more likely to slow some. Now, notice that she is only ranked 12th for XC by MileSplit. That tells me that they think that she has not shown the ability at the longer distances as at track middle distances, although some of that is probably that she dos not run as well off the track.