D3 Mideast XC 2012

LegitRun wrote:

Is the Dickinson program slipping? The women finished 3rd in Centennials. They haven't been that low since sometime in the 1990s. Men's team barely finished 2nd. They've gone from Centennial champ to second to hanging onto 2nd by a fingernail. Even with an injury to their top dude it shouldn't have been that close with Hops.

This isn't a particularly strong year for Dickinson, but it would certainly be premature to say they're slipping. Haverford is way better than they were when Dickinson won their two conference titles and the Hopkins men are a lot better this year, the first time in awhile that anyone besides Haverford and Dickinson have been good in xc. Dickinson has only finished better than 10th once at nationals in recent history, so if they ended up in the 10-20 spots as is likely, that would be an average year for them. The real difference between Dickinson and Haverford is depth. Dickinson has been quite successful at developing mediocre high school runners into high quality D3 runners, but they're not doing that with as many guys. Haverford will have twice the number of guys breaking 26, 27 and 28 minutes each year, making the pool of guys who could break out and turn into really good runners in the future much bigger.

As for the women, I haven't paid as much attention, but I do know Haverford has a much better team this year than they have in a while, which helped them get bump Dickinson out of second.

Deez Goatz can't hold us back

any predictions for the ladies? Obviously Hopkins will win but how many teams will leave the region? Who are some of the top individuals?

There is a good amount of women this year running low 22's high 21's that have a shot individually.

Assuming Hop, Haverford,Dickinson go. CMU is a little better than the 5 teams chasing them down but Etown has been known to peak well. Muhlenberg has beat Marywood by 3 and Gettysburg by 6 so those teams can go either way. All 4 teams have a front runner then 4-5 are a little back, Muhelnberg having the fastest front runner on paper.

Individuals

Centennial fast loops, 40 meters short (10 sec?)

Sheena Crawley, F and M 21:20

Samantha Mayden, Muhlenberg 21:31

Kristina Knauer, Bryn Mawr 21:39

Christine Esposito, Gettysburg 21:41

Claudia Keep, Bryn Mawr 22:11

Jenna Cody, Swarthmore 22:16

Nicki Cronin, Muhlenberg 22:22

Erica Bash, Muhlenberg 22:23

Kerry Campbell, Gettysburg 22:30

CSAC 5k, they went 1-6

Beth Schwab, Marywood 19:19

Dianna Diachille, Marywood 19:51

Landmark

Jennifer Van Wingerden, Drew 22:52

UAA rolling course, mostly flat?

Emily Wobb, Carnegie Mellon 22:37

Elise Hall, Carnegie Mellon 22:42

Haley Bayer, Carnegie Mellon 22:42

MAC- slow course

Kelly Patrick, Lebanon Valley 23:37

Tracy Tempone, Elizabethtown 23:42

Forgot Marina Orson for. misercordia who was 3rd in MAC in 23:50. The only one in the top 3 who didn't take a wrong turn and ran 6k. Top 3 took a wrong turn.

Patrick, Tempone and Shank wound up running long because of the wrong turn, not short.

I think to say Dickinson is slipping may be an exaggeration, especially on the men's side. The mens team has only been good for a couple years really and the year they beat Haverford and scored 16 points at the Conference Championships they finished in like 25th at Nationals. Haverford is a powerhouse right now and Dickinson has finished in the top 10 the last 2 years. They may have a better Men's team next year. Also to point to Hopkins finishing closer to Dickinson this year may actually be looking at it the wrong way. Last year Dickinson's 8 and 9 runner finished in front of Hopkins top guy, Dickinson had a mediocre to poor showing as a team, but Hopkins hardly even showed up at all. This years results may rather be showing that the Hopkins men are finally ready to compete. They may be underrated.

The Dickinson women's program is currently overrated in my humble opinion and are certainly not as good as during their high points in the past. That said, I think they may be undergoing a transition from consistently having some really solid front-runner and weak 5th women to a more tightly bunched group. Again, likely to be better next year, but not great this year at all. Will have to run better at regionals to qualify

Team race is too close to call 2-5. Projecting a year into the future is dumb too.

What I am interested in are overall individuals. I see the Centennial Conference having 4 of the top 5 male runners (if Schillit runs). Wasn't the case last year though. Should be a good race on what I am told is a course with a brutal middle 4k.

1. Over (Allegheny)

2. Schilit (Haverford)

3. Stadler (Haverford)

4. Fine (Dickinson)

5. Robinson (Hopkins)

Fine and Robinson are decent runners to be sure, but am not seeing them in the top 5. B. Kubiak has been hot and I think Hartung (9 last year) was flat in first run at Dickinson. Phillips was 7 at Regionals last year and who is speaking up for Gates (6 last year) and Newby from CMU?

Hartung was about 20 seconds back of Fine, Kubiak and Phillips at Dickinon's meet earlier in the year. I would say Fine and Kubiak are both potential top 5 finishers, solid top 10 picks based on the last couple races they have run. Phillips was 7 at conferences this year, hard to replicate last year's jump, especially cause there was no blizzard messing with everyone this year.

Kissin has been steppin' up for Haverford and could break in here. The home course helps Fine, and Mynatt could step up, too. You're right about Hartung at pre-regionals, but he's hit 25:15 since then. Could be peaking just right. Looking forward to an exciting race.

We'll see tom. What do you guys put the odds that the set of people in the top 5 is the same as the set of people ranked in the top 5. Same for top 3. I think theres probably a 90% chance that the top 5 is the same, maybe 50% for top 3.

If we're talking about teams here I don't think too many would have challenged that prediction on a bet. The top 5 in the region have been the class of the field all season.

It was too bad to not have Jordan Schilit and Andrew Fine in the field today, but the reality is that stayin' healthy is part of the deal in being competitive in this sport.

Last week I offered a list of names as potential individual qualifiers. Phillips, Garrity, Noll, Megee, Hartung, Kubiak, Farrell. I was wrong on Garrity and Megee was also out this week. Add Chansler Poole and Scott Ryan to fill those spots and my other 5 are there at today's finish. Too bad I can't handicap horses half that well.

How deep is it likely to go on the women's side team-wise and who are going to make it through as the individual qualifiers?

2old2bfast wrote:It was too bad to not have Jordan Schilit and Andrew Fine in the field today, but the reality is that stayin' healthy is part of the deal in being competitive in this sport.

Fine started, but DNF'd, while Schilit didn't race. Fine tweaked something during the race on a steep downhill and dropped out. He was racing pretty well at the time.

Since Fine started, and his team qualified, will he be eligible to compete next week? Anybody know if Schilit might also still get to run, if ready? (Since the team qualified)

What is up with Haverford's Shilit? Injured? Ill? Will he be running NCAAs?

bump

I saw him walking around at the regionals race. No boot or anything, so he isn't definitively out of nationals, but hard to say.

I bet if he can run at all they'll put him on the line at nationals. It's been just over a month since he ran 24:33, and he's too talented not to make an impact if he can get through an 8k race, but not running regionals isn't a great sign.

Too bad for Haverford he hasn't been healthy and running, as that would seriously help their national title hopes. They look like a good team without him, but I think they might need another low stick at nationals if they want to beat Calvin or North Central.